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All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Sunday January 1st, 2023 1:00pm
Miami Dolphins (8-7), (7-8) ATS, (3-5) AWAY, (3-5) ATS @ NE Patriots (7-8), (8-7) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (3-4) ATS MIA+2 ½
LW, MIA was HOME FAV-4 vs GB. Sorry, but I liked GB in this game. No one liked GB in this game, whether it was NFL Network, ESPN, etc. I liked GB because the MIA secondary is suspect plus the secondary for GB has been stepping up lately. The run game for MIA has basically come to a halt. Yes, MIA did get 82yds rushing in this game but that was the exception. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa had 3INTS on three straight possessions in the 4th qtr which sealed the game for GB. Plus, he suffered another concussion which has now sidelined him for Teddy Bridgewater. MIA WRs Jaylen Waddle & Tyreek Hill continue to dominate but other receivers on MIA don’t see the ball much, making the MIA OFF predictable. The final score was GB 26-20. LW, NE was a HOME DOG+3 ½ vs CINNCY. I liked CINNCY in this game and at halftime it was CINNCY 22-0. But NE Bill Belichick made some adjustments and CINNCY QB Joe Burrow threw a PICK6 and before you knew it, the game was 22-18. This game was a little sloppy for both teams with missed opportunities. NE had a chance to go ahead but a lost fumble by NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson which sort of sealed it for CINNCY. NE QB Mac Jones needs to find some consistency and NE needs some more receivers. NE doesn’t have that one dominant receiver and should look in the off season to bolster their WR corps.
L15 NE(H) vs MIA, NE 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS. L25 NE vs MIA, NE 13-12 ATS. L21 NE vs MIA, HOME 17-4 ATS. L21 MIA vs NE, FAV 12-9 ATS. MIA 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. MIA 1-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. MIA 1-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. MIA 10-7-1 ATS before NYJ. MIA 6-2 ATS off SU non-conf FAV loss. NE 14-4-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NE 1-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. NE 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. NE 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. NE 13-6 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. NE 14-4 ATS w/revenge vs .400>conf opp. NE 18-4 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss 4>pts.
These two teams played in wk 1 @MIA, with MIA winning 20-7. It looks almost certain that MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa will be out for this game and the last game of the season as well. QB Teddy Bridgewater would start in his place. Officially, Teddy started the one game in wk 6 @HOME vs MINN. He threw 2tds & 2INTS and MIA lost 24-16. So the jury’s still out on Teddy in this game. MIA has been slipping with a 4game losing streak. MIA has been streaky. They have won 3 games, lost 3 games, won 5 games, then lost 4 games. NE still has something to play for too. The winner of this game will probably get into the playoffs. The loser will probably go home. NE DEF is good. Just when you least expect it, it’s there. NE LB Matt Judon has 15.5 sacks and looking for more. NE LB Josh Uche has 11.5 sacks. Who will stop these two? NE is coming off a two game losing streak so someone has to win this game and MIA has not looked good. The secondary for NE is very underrated. DB/WR Marcus Jones who seems to be everywhere is out of this game with a concussion. However, lay the points as NE will win by more than 3pts.
THE PICK: NE-2 ½
Sunday January 1st, 2023 1:00pm
Carolina Panthers (6-9), (8-7) ATS (1-5) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (7-8), (3-11-1) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (1-6-1) ATS CAR+3
LW, TB & QB Tom Brady pulled another rabbit out of the hat. TB was down 16-6 @ARZ in the 4th qtr but somehow scored a td, kicked a fg off a turnover and then kicked another fg to win in OT, 19-16. I liked ARZ+7 ½ and ARZ should have won. But Brady and his magic play better in the last 2 minutes of a game then the first 58 minutes. ARZ showed that TB can be run on and CAR was probably taking notes. LW, CAR & DET were 7-7 in the 1st qtr. DET was driving to go ahead 14-7 but DET QB Jared Goff fumbled and CAR recovered. This was the turning point of the game. CAR went the length of the field and scored a td and it was CAR 14-7 instead of DET 14-7. CAR scored 24 straight points before DET scored a td to make the score CAR 31-13. The final score would be CAR 37-23 and it wasn’t even that close. But the story of this game was the rushing game for CAR. CAR rushed for 320yds & 3tds on 43carries. The 1-2 RB punch of D’Onta Foreman & Chuba Hubbard combined for 290yds, 1td on 33 carries. CAR QB Sam Darnold was able to spread the ball around to 7different receivers and sprinkle passes in to complement the run game. DET couldn’t stop it.
L15 TB(H) vs CAR, TB 7-8 SU & 6-9 ATS. L31 CAR vs TB, FAV 18-13 ATS. L20 TB vs CAR, ROAD 13-7 ATS. L11 TB vs CAR, TB 7-4 ATS. CAR 9-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CAR 0-3 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CAR 0-3 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. CAR 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. CAR 12-2 ATS off DD ATS win. CAR 20-15-1 ATS of DD SU win. CAR 3-10 ATS before NO. CAR 12-6 ATS off SU DOG win. CAR 6-15 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. CAR 9-0 ATS AWAY off DD ATS win. CAR 8-1 ATS off SU DOG win. TB 3-3-1 ATS since 2007 off SU OT win. TB 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. TB 2-0 ATS vs NGC SOUTH in JAN. TB 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. TB 1-4-1 ATS as a HOME FAV in 2022. TB 6-3 ATS as a HOME FAV 3<pts vs opp off SU win. TB 4-8-1 ATS before ATL. TB 10-0 ATS as a HOME FAV 3<pts w/revenge vs opp off SU win.
CAR likes to go run heavy and they have the RBs to get the job done. CAR #10 RUSH OFF vs TB #17 RUSH DEF. This will take a lot of pressure off of Darnold who we all know gets a little nervous if the game is on his shoulders. TB got lucky with their run game LW but, TB #32 RUSH OFF. Don’t expect TB to go run heavy, they don’t have the horses. These two teams met in wk 7 @CAR and CAR was a BIG HOME DOG +11. I was on my usual spot on the Rick Kamla Show and I told everyone that there would be an upset by CAR and CAR won the game BIG 21-3. In that game, CAR rushed for 173yds & 1td on 27 carries. Foreman & Hubbard had a combined 181yds, 1td on 24 carries. TB had no answer for these guys. Both of these teams have something to play for and I don’t see a blowout because CAR will go run heavy and their RBs will be ready. Believe it or not, because of the wacky NFC SOUTH this season, both teams have a legitimate shot at winning the NFC SOUTH and getting to the playoffs. Both of these teams will be giving their all and I expect CAR to run wild again.
THE PICK: CAR+3
Sunday January 1st, 2023 4:00pm
Minnesota Vikings (12-3), (7-7-1) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ GB Packers (7-8), (7-7-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (3-4) ATS MINN+3
LW, I liked GB+4 @MIA. GB was down 20-10 but GB QB Aaron Rodgers wasn’t panicking. However, GB receivers are certainly dropping more passes than in past seasons. Neither GB or MIA were running the ball successfully but Rodgers kept the MIA DEF on its toes by spreading the ball around to 10 different receivers. The GB DEF also came up big by forcing 3INTS in the 4th qtr and recovering 1 lost fumble. The GB secondary held MIA WRs Waddle & Hill from doing BIG damage. They had 9catches for 246yds & 1td. But they were not able to do damage in the 2nd half after GB made some adjustments. The final score was GB 26-20. LW, MINN @HOME was lucky to get by NYG. It took a 61yd fg to win the game at the end. I liked NYG+4 and it was NYG who made mistakes at the end which gave the game to MINN. For the most part, the NYG DEF shut down the MINN run game but couldn’t stop MINN QB Kirk Cousins who threw 3tds, 0INTS & 0 lost fumbles. TE TJ Hockenson & WR Justin Jefferson combined for 25 catches 242yds & 3tds. What helped MINN with the score MINN 17-16, MINN blocked a punt which put the ball at the NYG 29yd line. MINN punched it in and the score was MINN 24-16. NYG went down the field in under a minute with a td and 2pt conversion but MINN went 8plays and kicked a 61yd fg to win 27-24.
L15 GB(H) vs MINN, GB 9-4-2 SU & 9-5-1 ATS. L31 GB vs MINN, HOME 18-12-1 ATS L21 MINN vs GB, DOG 12-8 ATS 1PICK. MINN 7-12 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. MINN 1-2 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. MINN 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. MINN 0-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. MINN 14-5 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 10-8 ATS before CHI. MINN 21-13 ATS as a DOG 6<pts vs opp off SU win. MINN 9-3 ATS vs opp w/revenge off BB SU wins. GB 9-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. GB 2-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. GB 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. GB 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. GB 6-9 ATS off SU OG win. GB 18-5 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. GB 14-4 ATS as a HOME FAV 13<pts off non-conf gm. 11-10-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins.
Aaron Rodgers is someone that doesn’t forget things. In wk 1 of the 2022 NFL season MINN embarrassed GB @MINN, 23-7. In that game, Rodgers was sacked 4x, threw 1INT & had 1 lost fumble. MINN DE Za’Darius Smith had a sack of Rodgers in that game. But in his last eight games he has essentially disappeared with 1 ½ sacks. Rodgers will want revenge in this game and with GB playing @HOME in the cold vs MINN, he will get it. Cousins looked good in that game and MINN rushed for 126yds on 28 carries which took a lot of pressure off of Cousins. MINN was lucky to beat NYG last week and lucky to come back vs INDY the week before. MINN is a faker of a team and GB will put up 40pts vs a MINN DEF that is suspect at best. MINN #31 TOT DEF w/#19 RUSH DEF & #32 PASS DEF. GB can control their own destiny with a little help but if I was Rodgers, I would be foaming at the mouth for this one. Cousins will be under a lot of pressure outside in the cold @GB. This will be a payback game for GB in a big way. Look for GB to establish the run and then go for the kill with passes. The GB DEF cannot let Cousins get comfortable. Take GB & lay the points.
THE PICK: GB-3
Sunday January 1st, 2023 8:20pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8), (8-7) ATS, (4-4) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (10-5), (6-8-1) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (1-5-1) ATS PITT+3
LW, PITT was honoring RB Franco Harris and retiring his number. I had a feeling earlier in the week that PITT would win this game in dramatic fashion. I also felt that PITT should have rolled over LV because they are not that good. Well, PITT did intercept LV QB Derek Carr 3x and sacked him 3x but were trailing going into the 4th qtr, 10-3. PITT was able to stop LV RB Josh Jacobs for 44yds. Somehow, PITT made adjustments at the half and LV punted 3x on top of their INTS. PITT put together a very late td drive to win the game 13-10. PITT needs to play better. LW, BALT was a HOME FAV-7 vs ATL. I strongly felt that ATL could keep it close. I am not convinced that BALT QB Tyler Huntley can lead this team to the promised land. I’m not all that certain about Lamar Jackson either. BALT is a team that wins ugly. ATL had their chances in this game but they don’t have the personnel to get the job done and BALT was again playing down to their competition. It was sloppy for ATL and BALT capitalized on some of ATL mistakes and misfortunes. BALT barely got a cover with final score 17-9. BALT went run heavy rushing for 184yds on 34 carries. Huntley threw only 17x completed nine passes for 115yds.
L15 BALT(H) vs PITT, BALT 8-7 SU & 6-8 ATS 1NL. L31 BALT vs PITT, BALT 14-14-2 ATS 1NL. L23 PITT vs BALT, BALT 11-10-1 ATS 1NL. L31 BALT vs PITT, DOG 19-8-2 ATS 1NL. L29 BALT vs PITT, ROAD 18-9-2 ATS. PITT 16-16 ATS AWAY on SNF. PITT 13-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. PITT 2-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. PITT 3-0 ATS vs AFC NRTH in JAN. PITT 3-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. PITT 8-8 ATS before CLEV. PITT 20-7 ATS as a DOG vs >.500opp. PITT 11-5 ATS before div HOME gm. PITT 10-1 ATS as a DOG<7pts off SU win vs >.500opp. BALT 10-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. BALT 1-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. BALT 1-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. BALT 1-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. BALT 9-9 ATS @HOME on SNF. BALT 7-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. BALT 12-29-2ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 9-13 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. 5-1 ATS as a div FAV 6<pts.
This game is always a dog fight. Most of the time they are 3pts contests. It’s always cold and it’s rare if one team blows another team out. Last week, PITT showed that they can come back. BALT barely beat a bad ATL team. There is not a lot of confidence in Tyler Huntley because BALT is going very run heavy. Huntley only passed 17x completing 9 while BALT rushed 34x. Look for the same vs PITT. PITT knows that they can back into the playoffs with a win so they will be ready with some payback. PITT won in dramatic fashion on a night they honored RB Franco Harris. BALT beat PITT in wk 14 @PITT 16-14 and it was a tight game down to the wire. In that game BALT rushed for 215yds and PITT QB Mitch Trubisky threw 3INTs. I can see PITT coming out with victory or getting very close. It has been rumored that PITT OC Matt Canada will be gone after the season. Yes the PITT OFF has looked pathetic for most of the season. Both of these teams are very good vs the run. BALT #3 RUSH DEF & PITT #6 RUSH DEF. You may see more passing than running in this game. In wk14 PITT rushed for 65 yards while BALT rushed for 215 yards. So you never know. Take the points here.
THE PICK: PITT+3
Monday January 2nd, 2023 8:15pm
Buffalo Bills (12-3), (6-8-1) ATS, (6-2) AWAY, (4-3-1) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (11-4), (12-3) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (5-1) ATS CINNCY+1
LW, CINNCY was a ROAD FAV-3 ½ @NE. They were up 22-0 at halftime and it looked like they were going to blowout NE. NE had other ideas. NE HC Bill Belichick made some adjustments and they held CINNCY to 0pts in the 2nd half while almost making a miraculous comeback. CINNCY looked like TB the week before. In the 2nd half, CINNCY QB Joe Burrow threw a PICK6, CINNCY had a missed fg and a lost fumble that helped contribute to NE’s almost comeback @HOME vs CINNCY. NE had their own lost fumble and a turnover on downs that ended the game for NE. CINNCY barely won, 22-18. I liked CINNCY laying the points and I couldn’t believe that CINNCY let NE back in this game and didn’t score any pts in the 2nd half. LW, BUFF was a ROAD FAV-9 ½ @CHI. CHI has been playing close but not winning. They played MIA tough @HOME & PHILLY tough at HOME. But, this week, BUFF ran all over CHI for 254yds & 3tds. CHI had no answer and CHI QB Justin Fields was kept mostly in the pocket where he only rushed 7x for 11yds. CHI was actually winning 10-6 at the half but BUFF made some adjustments and exploded for 4tds in the 2nd half and CHI could only muster a fg. The final was CHI 35-13. I certainly thought that BUFF would win but it would be a little closer considering how CHI had been playing but, in the 2nd half, the CHI DEF was nowhere to be found.
L10 CINNCY vs BUFF, BUFF 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS. BUFF 14-7-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. BUFF 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. BUFF 0-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. BUFF 8-5 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. BUFF 4-3-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. BUFF 14-15-1 ATS L30 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 11-8 ATS before NE. BUFF 8-5 ATS as a FAV after scoring 35>pts. CINNCY 1-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. CINNCY 13-8-3 ATS L24 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 13-6-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. CINNCY 2-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CINNCY 1-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. CINNCY 19-5-2 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. CINNCY 8-7-1 ATS off BB SU wins.
BUFF is looking for the #1 seed and CINNCY still has a shot at the coveted prize. CINNCY has to stop the BUFF run game and they have to get their own run game going as well. CINNCY has had a tough schedule and they have shown up every time. The CINNCY DEF #13 TOT w/ #7 RUSH DEF has to make sure that BUFF QB Josh Allen & BUFF RBs cannot run for daylight. On the other hand, BUFF #7 TOT DEF w/#4 RUSH DEF cannot let Burrow pick them apart. CINNCY OT La’el Collins was injured and looks like he will be out. The O-LINE for CINNCY has been meshing well and they need to protect Burrow and open up some running lanes. This is going to be a tight game with neither team getting a blowout. This is a game that will come down to the wire with a fg. This is the 1st meeting of Burrow vs Allen so it should be a good one. I give the edge to CINNCY in this one.
THE PICK: CINNCY+1
Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games. Jeff also appears as a frequent guest on the Dr. Roto show also on the Bettor Sports Network. He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he posts his BEST BET of the WEEK every week on Fridays. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” on Wednesday evenings where they discuss NFL games. That video can be seen LIVE & is posted on Twitter and YouTube. He can be emailed at [email protected].
