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The James Madison Dukes (11-5) will host the Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-8) on Saturday night. App State snapped a three-game losing streak with a 63-62 win over Coastal Carolina on Thursday.
Leading scorer Tyree Boykin scored 16 points on 5-of-13 shooting, while three-year starter Donovan Gregory dropped 12 points and nine assists on 6-of-13 from the field. Western Illinois transfer Tamell Pearson bounced back from back-to-back scoreless efforts with 12 points off the bench.
Appalachian State vs. James Madison
Betting Odds
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James Madison suffered their first loss in conference play to Texas State 63-62. Mount St. Mary's transfer and 2021-22 All-NEC honoree Mezie Offurum had a season-high 19 points, but leading scorers Terrence Edwards and Takal Molson combined for 10 points on 4-of-12 shooting.
Two-time All-CAA guard Vado Morse missed yet another game with an illness and should be considered questionable for Saturday's contest against App State.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Appalachian State Mountaineers own a 0.95 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 290th in the nation. James Madison has the 83rd-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.97. App State does poorly in all key stats, but spacing, where they are in the 81st percentile. Conversely, the Dukes are in the 75th percentile in defensive spacing, ranking average to poor in all other key categories.
The Mountaineers own high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-pointers, cut, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. However, they are in the bottom 150 in all those shot types except in cut, with a 1.16 SQ PPP (118th in the country), and midrange, with a 0.77 SQ PPP (163rd). Conversely, the Dukes are in the top 100 in all those categories except in cut, where they rank 279th (1.17 SQ PPP).
The James Madison Dukes have a 1.01 AdjOFF SQ, the 159th-best mark in the country. App State has posted a 1.01 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 178th in the country. The Dukes are in the top 40 in rim and three rate, shot selection, free throw rate, and open three rate. The Mountaineers are in the top 130 in all of James Madison's best categories.
James Madison is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: finishing at the rim, off-the-dribble three-pointer, and transitioning. On the other hand, Appalachian State is in the bottom half of the country in defending all those shot types except the off-the-dribble three-pointer, where they own a 0.93 SQ PPP (7th in the country).
Appalachian State vs. James Madison Prediction
App State matches up exceptionally well against James Madison. The Dukes dwarf most teams in the Sun Belt regarding talent, but their recent inconsistent stretch stems from a lousy defense and the absence of guard Vado Morse.
The erratic play of the Dukes should be more than enough of a reason to grab the Mountaineers with double-digits on the spread, but if that's not enough, the SQ model and numbers love App St. in this one.
Prediction: Appalachian State +11 (-110)
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