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The (#22) New Mexico Lobos (12-0) will host Colorado State Rams (8-5) on Wednesday night. Colorado State suffered its third loss of the month last Wednesday, at the hands of USC with the final score reading 73-64. Junior Patrick Cartier scored a team-high 22 points, while leading scorer Isaiah Stevens filled the stat sheet with 15 points, one rebound, nine assists, and four steals. Isaiah Rivera had 12 points, while two-year starter John Tonje went 1-of-8 from the field for six points in 36 minutes.
Colorado State vs. New Mexico Betting Odds
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The Lobos are among the few unbeaten teams in college basketball this season, cracking the AP top 25 this week for the first time since 2014. New Mexico have had some solid resume-building wins, including victories over Iona, San Francisco, Saint Mary's, and South Alabama. They beat Praire View 94-63 out on the hardwood in their last game.
Five of the Lobos men scored in double-figures, highlighted by Wichita State transfer Morris Udeze's 16 points and 14 rebounds. All-MWC guard Jamal Mashburn's 17 points were crucial as well. Former Arizona State Sun Devil Jaelen House, alongside freshman Donovan Dent and senior K.J. Jenkins, scored at least ten points each in the blowout victory.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
We will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
Colorado State Rams own a 1.01 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 176th in the nation. New Mexico have the 130th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.99. Colorado State feature in the 33rd percentile when it comes to shot selection. Conversely, the Lobos are also good enough to average in all key stats, except falling in the 58th percentile or worse in defensive shot selection and spacing.
The Rams own high-frequency numbers in catch-and-shoot threes, cut, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, and transition shot types. They are in the top 80 in all those shot types except in cut, with a 1.11 SQ PPP (193rd in the country), and transition, with a 1.31 SQ PPP (175th). The Lobos are bottom 180 in all those categories except in transition, where they rank 136th in the country (1.28 SQ PPP).
The New Mexico Lobos have a 1.14 AdjOFF SQ, the 11th-best mark in the country. Colorado State have posted a 0.94 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 49th in the country. The Lobos are in the top 10 in shot selection, free throw rate, and rim and three SQ PPP. The Rams are in the 7th percentile in defensive shot selection while ranking just outside the top 80 in defensive free throw rate and rim and three SQ PPP.
New Mexico are in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition. Colorado State, on the other hand, are in the top 140 in defending all those shot types except transition, where they own a 1.29 SQ PPP (153rd).
Colorado State vs. New Mexico Prediction
As great as New Mexico have been this season, Colorado State have competed well all year. The Lobos should be proud of their accomplishments, ranking in the top 25 for the first time in almost a decade and remaining undefeated heading into the New Year. However, the Rams are starting to find their stride with Isaiah Stevens back in the mix and are just too talented to be getting more than two possessions of points worth on the spread. Albuquerque has become one of the more challenging places to play over the years, but the Rams have also become one of the country's most consistent mid-majors.
Prediction: Colorado State +6.5 (-110)
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