'%20x='0'%20y='0'%20height='100%25'%20width='100%25'%20%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20xlink%3Ahref='data:image/jpg;base64,/9j/4AAQSkZJRgABAQAAAQABAAD/2wCEAAMDAwMDAwQEBAQFBQUFBQcHBgYHBwsICQgJCAsRCwwLCwwLEQ8SDw4PEg8bFRMTFRsfGhkaHyYiIiYwLTA+PlQBAwMDAwMDBAQEBAUFBQUFBwcGBgcHCwgJCAkICxELDAsLDAsRDxIPDg8SDxsVExMVGx8aGRofJiIiJjAtMD4+VP/AABEIAAYACgMBIgACEQEDEQH/xABgAAEBAQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABgcQAAICAgEFAAAAAAAAAAAAAAECAxIABAUHCBFBgwEBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABhEAAgICAwEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAQIDEQAEBRMxQf/aAAwDAQACEQMRAD8AzJu3fi5TstoyRRwO0sg1pTdRHHVEW9bWDMT5yZboNyyMUG5qAKSABK/r54xg/gXfa0leZ2kagLYk/SMQ7h6paQBRZ8Gf/9k='%3E%3C/image%3E%3C/svg%3E)
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (12-4) will finish their two-city road trip with a game against the (#21) Auburn Tigers (13-3) on Saturday night.
Mississippi State started the season a perfect 11-0 but has lost four of its last five, including a road loss to Georgia on Wednesday. The Bulldogs shot 29% from the field but, more concerningly, finished 7-of-22 from the charity stripe. Leading scorers Tolu Smith and D.J. Jefferies had a night to forget, combining 4-of-18 from the floor.
Mississippi State vs. Auburn Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk-free first bet up to $1000 at BetMGM
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers Match Details
Fixture: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers
Date and Time: Saturday, January 14, 2023, at 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Neville Arena, Auburn, Alabama
Auburn continues to be battle-tested but rose to the challenge with a road win over Ole Miss on Tuesday. The Tigers and Rebels went back and forth before a hot start in the second half led to Auburn's victory.
Although leading scorer Wendell Green Jr. struggled with efficiency, he was a marksman from the free throw line, going a perfect 11-of-11 on freebies, finishing with 23 points, five rebounds, seven assists, and three steals. Former Morehead State star Johni Broome also ate, posting a 19-point, 11-rebound double-double.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Miss St. Bulldogs own a 1.10 AdjOFF SQ this season, suitable for 53rd in the nation. Auburn, on the other hand, has the 129th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.99. does well in all key stats, but shot-making, where they are in the 5th percentile. Conversely, the Tigers are in the fourth percentile in defensive shot-making, but in the 71st percentile in defensive shot selection, a strength of Miss St.
The Bulldogs own high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-point, half-court, midrange, off-screen, and post-up shot types. However, they are outside the top 190 in all those shot types except in the half-court, with a 1.00 SQ PPP (153rd in the country). Conversely, the Tigers are outside the top 150 in all those categories except in post-up, ranking 17th in SQ PPP.
The Auburn Tigers have a 1.14 AdjOFF SQ, the 17th-best mark in the country. Mississippi State has posted a 0.90 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 8th in the country. The Bulldogs are in the top 40 in shot selection and free throw rate. The Tigers are in the top 20 in both those defensive key categories.
Mississippi State is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, finishing at the rim, midrange, off-the-dribble three-pointers, off-screen, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition. Auburn, on the other hand, is in the top 110 in defending all those shot types except post-up, where they own a 0.87 SQ PPP (193rd in the country). However, Miss State is 335th in the post-up despite being 49th in frequency.
Mississippi State vs. Auburn Prediction
The ShotQuality stats paint an ugly picture for Auburn. They are one of the worst teams in allowing quality shots, yet they are among the best in defensive shot selection. So what exactly does that mean? Those opponents have been unable to hit their shots against the Tigers despite a quality look.
Meanwhile, The Bulldogs have gotten quality shots but has yet to be able to knock them down. A date with Auburn, who, as mentioned, are flawed in defensive shot selection, should result in a reasonable amount of open looks for the Bulldogs. So grab Miss St with the points, as they should keep it close.
Prediction: Mississippi State +8 (-110)
Risk-free first bet up to $1000 at BetMGM
