Nevada vs. Pepperdine Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 6 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season

The Nevada Wolfpack (7-2) will visit the Pepperdine Waves (5-2) on Tuesday night. Nevada lost last time out, getting bested by Loyola Marymount 64-52 on the road. The Wolfpack were tied at the half but only scored 19 points in the final 20 minutes of regulation. Jarod Lucas, a former starter on the Oregon State Elite Eight team in 2021, scored 18 points on 50% shooting for Nevada. However, senior Kenan Blackshear and former top recruit Will Baker struggled in the loss, combining for seven points on 3-of-18 from the field. Freshman Nick Davidson was the lone bright spot outside Lucas, scoring 11 points off the bench in 21 minutes. Nevada is led by three-time Mountain West Conference COY and former UCLA bench boss Steve Alford.

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Nevada vs.Pepperdine Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Nevada Wolfpack	+2	0143.5	+100
Pepperdine Waves	-2	u143.5	-120

All Lines Provided by Caesars Sportsbook

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Pepperdine won their last game, beating Northern Arizona 88-69 at home. Sophomore Maxwell Lewis dropped 30 points and six rebounds in the win. Mike Mitchell Jr. added 17, while Houston Mallette had 16 of his own. The three sophomores lead the team in points and assists on the season.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions

Nevada

Offensive Key Stats

AdjOFF SQ = 1.04 (44th)

Free Throw Rate = 46.9% (8th)

Shot Making = 93rd Percentile (23rd)

Spacing = 85th Percentile (46th)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.08 (81st)

Open 3 Rate = 20.8% (222nd)

Rim and 3 Rate = 83.2% (287th)

Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Midrange = 0.84 (48th)

Post-Up = 0.94 (50th)

Cut = 1.24 (57th)

Half Court = 1.02 (62nd)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.06 (66th)

P&R Ball Screen = 1.02 (82nd)

Off-Screen = 1.01 (148th)

Transition = 1.19 (313th)

Defensive key stats

AdjDEF SQ = 1.05 (262nd)

Shot Making = 41st Percetine (162nd)

Open 3 Rate = 21.8 (175th)

Rim and 3 Rate = 88.7% (252nd)

FTR = 36.2% (270th)

Spacing = 84th Percentile (315th)

Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Transition = 1.25 (83rd)

P&R Ball Screen = 1.00 (233rd)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.04 (248th)

Post-Up = 0.91 (268th)

Off-Screen = 1.06 (313th)

Midrange = 0.85 (350th)

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Pepperdine

Offensive Key Stats

AdjOFF SQ = 1.00 (202nd)

Shot Making = 99th Percentile (4th)

Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.12 (30th)

Spacing = 72nd Percentile (88th)

Shot Selection = 26th Percentile (263rd)

Open 3 Rate = 15.0% (287th)

FTR = 25.3% (303rd)

Rim and 3 Rate = 60.8% (331st)

Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.09 (11th)

Off-Screen = 1.14 (15th)

Midrange = 0.81 (84th)

Transition = 1.37 (104th)

Post-Up = 0.89 (126th)

P&R Ball Screen = 0.99 (146th)

Defensive key stats

AdjDEF SQ = 1.05 (275th)

Open 3 Rate = 13.4% (64th)

Shot Selection = 85th Percentile (85th)

Spacing = 50th Percentile (200th)

Shot Making = 61st Percentile (242nd)

Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)

Off-Screen = 0.89 (11th)

P&R Ball Screen = 0.92 (51st)

Finishing at the Rim = 1.06 (68th)

Half Court = 0.96 (121st)

Post-Up = 0.87 (175th)

Midrange = 0.77 (184th)

Cut = 1.14 (196th)

Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.06 (335th)

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Nevada vs. Pepperdine Prediction

Statistically, through ShotQuality, Nevada should be the better team regardless of the venue. They have arguably the best player in Jarod Lucas and, overall, a deeper team. On the other hand, Pepperdine has relied on three sophomores to lead the way this season, which has worked well but has had its not-so-good moments against older teams (i.e. UCLA). Nevada is best at defending in transition, a strength that Pepperdine has. If they can limit long scoring runs from the Waves, the Wolfpack should come out with a victory.

Prediction: Nevada +2 (-110)

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