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The (#8) Gonzaga Bulldogs (15-3) will host the Portland Pilots (9-10) on Saturday night. Portland more than doubled their offensive output after a 85-43 defeat at the hands of Saint Mary's, beating San Francisco 92-87.
Three Pilots scored more than 20 points, with All-WCC guard Tyler Robertson, former UNLV Rebel Moses Wood, and senior Kristian Sjolund combining for 64 points on 16-of-35 shooting. Starter Michael Meadows remains out for the Pilots but is questionable for Saturday's contest against Gonzaga. The junior is averaging 10.8 points per game.
Portland vs. Gonzaga Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
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Portland Pilots vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Match Details
Fixture: Portland Pilots at Gonzaga Bulldogs
Date and Time: Saturday, January 14, 2023, at 10:00 PM ET
Venue: McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane
The Zags extended their winning streak to ten after a come-from-behind 75-74 win over BYU. The Bulldogs went on a 12-4 run in the final three minutes, highlighted by Julian Strawther's go-ahead three with nine seconds remaining.
However, BYU missed the next shot at the buzzer, giving the Bulldogs the win. Strawther finished with 11 points and eight rebounds, while superstar forward Drew Timmie posted a 19-point, 13-rebound double-double.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Portland Pilots have a 1.07 AdjOFF SQ, the 78th-best mark in the country. Gonzaga has posted a 0.96 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 61st in the country. The Pilots are in the top 15 in shot-making and free-throw rate. However, the Zags have been pitiful in defensive spacing, placing in the 72nd percentile (279th in the country). They do much better at defensive free throw rates, ranking 61st in the nation.
Portland is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, half-court, midrange, off-the-dribble three-pointers, off-screen, and post-up. They are in the top 90 in all those shot types from an SQ PPP perspective. Gonzaga is in the bottom 125 in defending all those shot types.
The Bulldogs have a 1.15 AdjOFF SQ, the 14th-best mark in the country. Portland has posted a 0.98 AdjDEF SQ this season, suitable for the 102nd-best mark in the country. The Bulldogs are in the top 60 in shot-making and rim and 3 SQ PPP. The Pilots are in the 78th percentile in defensive shot-making but are slightly better in defensive rim and 3 SQ PPP, ranking 169th in the country.
The Zags are in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, finishing at the rim, post-up, and transition. The Zags do well in all those shot types, excelling in the post-up with a 0.96 SQ PPP. Portland are in the bottom 150 in defending all those shot types except transition, where they own a 1.27 SQ PPP (116th in the country).
Portland vs. Gonzaga Prediction
The Zags aren't the Zags of seasons past, as they have already lost three games and have yet to dominate the WCC as they have for so long.
However, Gonzaga has been outstanding on offense behind the amazing Drew Timme. They should be able to score in buckets against a poor defensive team in Portland. The same should be said for the Pilots, as they are an efficient high-powered offense that should be able to score points on Saturday.
The over seems high, but it may need to be higher for two teams with such great offenses.
Prediction: Over 159 (-110)
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