TCU – Baylor Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks - January 4

The (#17) TCU Horned Frogs (12-1) will head to Waco to take on the (#19) Baylor Bears (10-3) on Wednesday night. Texas Christian has won 10 in a row since suffering their lone season loss to Northwestern State in early November. They rallied from 13 down to beat Texas Tech 67-61 last Saturday in Fort Worth. Star guard Mike Miles had 23 points on 7-of-12 from the field in the win, while senior Emanuel Miller had 16 points to go along with three steals. Damion Baugh added 14 points as the Horned Frogs remain undefeated when playing at full strength.

TCU – Baylor Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Money Line
TCU Horned Frogs	+5.5	o144.5	+200
Baylor Bears	-5.5	u144.5	-250

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

Risk-free first bet up at $1000

Meanwhile, Baylor had their five-game winning streak snapped last Saturday at Iowa State. The Bears' lackluster defense allowed ISU to shoot 50% from the field and 10-of-23 from beyond the arc. On the other hand, the offense struggled, turning it over a laughable 19 times and shooting 22% from deep. Two-year starter Adam Flagler and West Virginia transfer Jalen Bridges were bright spots in the loss, combining for 32 points on 12-of-26 shooting. Meanwhile, star freshman Keyonte George shot poorly from the field, and LJ Cryer remained out of the lineup with a concussion. Cryer is probable for Wednesday's matchup against TCU.

ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The TCU Horned Frogs are 11th in the country with a 1.14 AdjOFF SQ. They struggle in spacing and shot-making, but are in the 99th percentile in shot selection. They also get to the free throw line a healthy amount while taking a good amount of open threes. The Baylor Bears are 14th in AdjDEF SQ at 0.90. They excel in defensive shot selection, but are poor in defensive free throw rate and open three rate.

The Horned Frogs have high-frequency numbers in transition, cut, and finishing at the rim shot types. They are in the top 10 in finishing at the rim, shots in transition, and 60th in cut. Conversely, the Bears are in the top 30 in defending cut and finishing at the rim shots, but 179th in stopping shots in transition.

Baylor owns a 1.08 AdjOFF SQ, a fringe top 60 mark. TCU has a 0.95 AdjDEF SQ, the 51st-best mark in the country. The Bears are in the 95th percentile in spacing and shot-making. The Horned Frogs are in the 21st percentile or better in defensive spacing and shot-making.

Baylor is well-balanced on offense, but is best in transition, off-screen, and taking jump shots. They are in the top 65 of all of those categories. TCU, on the other hand, is in the top 110 in defending all of those shot types except screens, where they are 227th in the country.

TCU – Baylor Prediction

TCU has been rolling as of late, while coach Scott Drew can't be too pleased with the performance of Baylor's defense. However, regression suggests that the Bears will start to figure it out on defense, while it might be tough for Texas Christian to keep their win streak alive headed into a hostile environment at Baylor. Roll with the under, as the Bears should return to their typically uncompromising defensive style.