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In the NFL, December is typically the month that will decide whether or not a team is going to play in the playoffs after the regular season is over. There are always teams that are on the cusp of the so called “dance” that try to do everything within their power to make a run to win the SuperBowl.
Obviously not every team can participate in this “dance”. There are teams that already have been eliminated for the playoffs and will try to at least play as “spoilers” against other teams that are trying to get there. Plus, there are teams that have already stamped their tickets for the “dance” that are gearing up for a run but just don’t know what seed number they will be.
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December is a month where most of the questions teams have about playing further are usually answered. Their probabilities are all laid out by every analyst on every medium with any NFL knowledge. The scenarios for every team are spelled out exactly so that going forward, these teams know exactly what they need to do and what other teams need to do, for them to make it to the “dance.
However, not every team that has the intention of playing further makes it. December can be a cruel month in terms of scheduling, weather, injuries, etc. December can be a down month to the teams as well. Whereas in the case that they historically don’t play well in this month and therefore forfeit their chances of getting to the “dance” and playing further. Let’s take a look. For comparison purposes, I will look at 2019-2022 HOME & AWAY records combined SU & ATS. Also, I will only be looking at teams that are on the cusp, not teams that are already in.
The New England Patriots who are currently 7-7 SU and still have an outside shot at a playoff spot are 5-10 SU & 5-10 ATS in the month of DEC for 2019-2022. They have a game coming up vs CINNCY and the rest of their schedule is very tough as well. Do they have what it takes to get to the dance? A tough call.
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The Miami Dolphins who are currently 8-6 SU are 9-6 SU & 10-5 ATS in DEC. Before 2022, MIA was 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS. MIA is currently on a 3game losing streak and needs to right their ship, otherwise they may fall out of the running. But before this season, MIA was a pretty good bet in DEC. They play @HOME vs GB and the jury is still out on how this game will go. They also don’t have it easy going forward.
The NY JETS who are currently 7-7 SU are 6-12 SU & 8-8 ATS in DEC. They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS. Considering that the NY JETS have not been to the playoffs in a while, odds may be against them to make it to the playoffs. But, they certainly may be a good bet depending on who they are playing and the spread. They play a big game on TNF vs JAGS and that may factor in heavily how January goes for Gang Green.
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The Cleveland Browns who are currently 6-8 SU are 6-10 SU & 5-9-1 ATS in DEC. All of a sudden, they have been playing well and have put a lot of pressure on the teams ahead of them. But a team that is under .500 this late in the season has a very slim chance to make it to the playoffs unless some other teams start losing or continue to lose. Considering that CINNCY & BALT are way above .500, chances a re slim but, there is still value in game to game scenarios.
Same thing with the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are also currently 6-8 SU and are 7-9 SU & 7-9 ATS in DEC. Their scenario is much like CLEV because of the division, tie breakers. Plus, they still have games vs teams in their division. There could be value in a game that they have history with or against a team that has nothing to play for. You certainly have to look closely.
The Tennessee Titans are currently 7-7 SU & 7-8 SU & 7-7-1 ATS in DEC. But considering that TENN is currently 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS, will TENN turn it around to make it to the playoffs? Is there value there? They are currently on a 4game skid after being 7-3 SU and having command of the AFC SOUTH. What is also not working in TENN favor is that they play the JAGS in the last game of the season. DEC has not been good to TENN.
Speaking of the JAGS, they are 6-8 SU & 4-12 & 5-11 ATS in DEC. They have been so bad for so long that they were a good bet to fade in DEC because they were so bad. But right now, they are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with a big game coming on TNF @ NYJ. Is it just a late season surge by the JAGS with nothing to lose or are they legit? Either way, right now they are playing with a purpose and certainly bring value to the bettors. That last game of the season vs TENN may be crucial if TENN really falters and JAGS keep winning.
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The Las Vegas Raiders are currently 6-8 SU & 6-10 SU & 7-9 ATS. LV has won their last 4 out fives games after being left for dead. They have had a weak schedule which has enabled them to find a way to win games that they normally would not have. See the New England game. Hence, they have an outside shot at making the playoffs. But take away this season’s play in DEC and they are 4-9 SU & 5-8 ATS. There is some value with LV because they have something to play for but of course we have to be able to size up the competition. Their schedule going forward is very tough, so they may be thinking ahead, we will see.
The Washington Commanders are currently 7-6-1 SU & 4-10-1 SU & 6-9 ATS in DEC. Before this season WASH had nothing to play for but it certainly looks like they may have turned things around. Unfortunately for WASH, there are three other teams ahead of them in the standings in the NFC EAST. Plus, they all have better records and are almost guaranteed a playoff spot. WASH does not have an easy schedule going forward and it may be best to lay off of them or fade them the rest of the season. But, I would say, watch out for this team in 2023, barring injuries of course.
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The NY Giants are currently 8-5-1 SU & 4-11-1 SU & 6-10 ATS in DEC. The NY Giants are the team with the best record that I am discussing in this article. But anything could happen going forward because they have not been guaranteed a spot at the dance. There are currently two teams ahead of them in the standings and they have been guaranteed at least a playoff spot. NYG have two tough games out of their L3 and we will see where the Betting Line lies. It has been a successful season for Big Blue as no one thought they would be where they are at the beginning of the season. But, is there value moving forward, knowing they have something to play for? We’ll see.
The Detroit Lions are 7-7 SU & 6-10 SU & 9-7-1 ATS in DEC. Take away 2022 where DET is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS and you have 3-10 SU & 6-7-1 ATS. Overall, they look decent because DET had turned it on later in this season and still has a shot at the playoffs. They have brought considerable value this season as they have only been blown out in two games while winning vs ATS in ten games so far. Their schedule going forward is not that tough but may have to wait until wk 18 to see if they get to the dance because they play @GB that week.
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The Green Bay Packers are 6-8 SU & 14-0 SU & 8-6 ATS in DEC. In the Aaron Rodgers era, you would never find GB at this point of on the outside looking in. IF you took them on the ML, you would be laughing all the way to the bank. If it was ATS, you would be laughing but, just not as hard. Certainly there is value as they seem to overpower any team with weaknesses. GB’s schedule going forward will depend on factors not controlled by them and their last game of the season vs DET may decide who gets in and who doesn’t. But, there is value in every game because GB has something to play for.
The Seattle Seahawks are 7-7 SU & 8-8 SU & 6-10 ATS in DEC. SEA has had an up and down season with a DEF that has been unpredictable. They have lost some games they could have and should have won. SEA is playing better than expected but their schedule is tough and have slim hopes about getting to the playoffs. If thy lose two of their last three games they will have a losing record and probably will not move further. But again, there is some value because they still have something to play for and that gives the team and the bettors hope.
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I saved the best scenario and division for last, ha ha. The NFC SOUTH has been so bad this season that no team is over .500 with three games left in the season. But, the team that finishes with the best record and possibly with tie breakers will move on to the playoffs. There will probably be only one team from this division that makes it to the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 6-8 SU & 10-5 SU & 7-5-2 ATS in DEC. The Carolina Panthers are 5-9 SU & 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS in DEC. The Atlanta Falcons are 6-9 SU & 8-7 ATS in DEC. The New Orleans Saints are 5-9 & 9-7 SU & 10-5-1 ATS in DEC.
The reason why I clumped them all together is that they all have something to play for going forward which brings a lot of value. This can be used against whoever they are playing. If one of these teams is playing a team that is completely out of the playoff picture look to see if they are getting or giving points. That could bring value. Also, CAR plays TB & NO and can run the table by winning all three of their remaining games. ATL has one game against the division. NO has one game vs the division. TB has two games vs the division. There is a lot of value in those games because I doubt any team is going to be blown out and whoever is getting points will probably have the edge. We will see how it plays out but TB has the edge. What they do with it, is up to them.
Do all of these teams currently have a shot to make the playoffs? Absolutely. But, they need to keep winning, have some other teams lose and combinations of losing and winning by other teams. Then there are the tie breakers. But in reality, not all of these teams will get to the playoffs and some of them will not even make it out of DEC still in contention. That’s just the way it goes. But, as a gambler you need to decide who has what it takes to still get the job done and win or at least play competitively close.
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Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games. Jeff also appears as a frequent guest on the Dr. Roto show also on the Bettor Sports Network. He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he posts his BEST BET of the WEEK every week on Fridays. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” on Wednesday evenings where they discuss NFL games. That video can be seen LIVE & is posted on Twitter and YouTube. He can be emailed at [email protected].
