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On Saturday, the UNLV Rebels (12-6) will visit the Fresno State Bulldogs (6-11). UNLV has lost three straight and five of their last six since starting the year 11-1. They only lead Wyoming in the conference standings.
Fresno State lost last Saturday to Air Force 51-48, extending their losing streak to three games. They were without the backcourt duo of Isaiah Hill and Jermarl Baker, as the two were injured. Both seniors are questionable for Saturday's tilt against UNLV.
UNLV vs. Fresno State
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UNLV Rebels vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Match Details
Fixture: UNLV Rebels at Fresno State Bulldogs
Date and Time: Saturday, January 21 at 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Save Mart Center
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The UNLV Rebels own a 1.08 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 68th in the nation. Fresno State has the 101st-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.98. UNLV does poorly in all key stats but shot selection, where they are in the 74th percentile.
They are also 80th in the free throw rate (FTR) metric. Conversely, the Bulldogs are in the 32nd percentile in defensive shot selection and 110th in defensive FTR.
The Rebels own high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-point, finishing at the rim, isolation, off-the-dribble three-point, and transition shot types. They are in the top 150 in all those shot types except catch & shoot three-pointers, with a 0.97 SQ PPP (332nd in the country) and off-the-dribble three-pointers, with a 0.99 SQ PPP (219th in the country).
Conversely, the Bulldogs are outside the top 240 in defending all those shot types except transition, with a 1.20 SQ PPP (30th in the country).
The Bulldogs have a 1.03 AdjOFF SQ, the 139th-best mark in the country. UNLV has posted a 0.98 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 8th in the country. The Bulldogs are right inside the top 150 in shot selection and the open three rate metric. However, the Rebels are 160th in defensive shot selection and 114th in the defensive open three rate metric.
Fresno State is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, half-court, isolation, off-the-dribble three-pointers, and P&R ball screen. Fresno does well in the half-court and shots off of cuts but struggles elsewhere. UNLV is outside the top 140 in defending all those shot types.
UNLV vs. Fresno State Prediction
The temptation to grab the Bulldogs with points in this contest is there, but the status of Baker and Hill is a variable that cannot be ignored. If they can't go, the offense will take a significant hit against one of the better defenses in the MWC. Even if they can go, they play at one of the slowest paces in the conference and will still need help putting up a big score on Saturday. So grab the under in this late-night MWC matchup.
Prediction: Under 130 (-110)
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