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The USC Trojans (6-3) will host the Cal State Fullerton Titans (4-4) on Wednesday night. Fullerton is in the middle of a five-game road trip, still seeking their first win on the four-city voyage after losing to Seattle 69-62. University of Tampa transfer Max Jones led the way with a team-high 16 points on 3-of-4 from beyond the arc. Leading scorer Jalen Harris struggled to find his shot, going 2-of-10 in his worst game of the year. Latrell Wrightwell, in his third season at Fullerton, came off the bench for the first time this year, scoring 15 points on 50% shooting. The Titans are still trying to navigate this season after losing their top three scorers from 2021.
USC vs. Fullerton Betting Odds
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USC survived a scare last time out, barely squeaking by the Oregon State Beavers 63-62 at home. The Beavers had a chance to win it at the buzzer but couldn't corral a Joshua Morgan missed free throw in time to heave up a full-court prayer. Oregon State led by as many as 11 points, but USC used a 40-point second half to climb back into the game. Sophomore Kobe Johnson scored 17 points, his first double-digit effort of the season, and added six rebounds, three assists, and a season-high five steals in the win. Johnson's effort was much needed, with leading scorer Boogie Ellis failing to score in double-figures for the second game in a row. Drew Peterson, a 2021-22 All-Pac-12 honoree, finished with ten points, five rebounds, and six assists on 40% from the field. The Trojans could have been better at the line, finishing 13-of-21 from the line.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions
Cal State Fullerton
Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjOFF SQ = 1.03 (111th)
FTR = 38.2% (51st)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.04 (219th)
Shot Selection = 32nd Percentile (236th)
Spacing = 14th Percentile (211th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Half Court = 0.99 (141st)
Finishing at the Rim = 1.08 (254th)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.90 (325th)
Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjDEF SQ = 1.03 (224th)
Open 3 Rate = 24.6% (206th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 87.6% (207th)
Shot Selection = 53rd Percentile (211th)
FTR = 39.5% (311th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Transition = 1.22 (122nd)*
Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.02 (126th)
Midrange = 0.76 (130th)
Isolation = 0.85 (254th)
Post-Up = 0.91 (282nd)
P&R Ball Screen = 1.02 (290th)
Cut = 1.25 (323rd)
* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.
USC
Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjOFF SQ = 1.04 (103rd)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.15 (7th)
Free Throw Rate (FTR) = 35.1% (71st)
Shot Selection = 72nd Percentile (86th)
Spacing = 40th Percentile (204th)
Open 3 Rate = 16.2% (268th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 78.3% (350th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Post-Up =0.96 (29th)
Transition = 1.46 (44th)
Off the Dribble 3PT = 1.03 (73rd)
Cut = 1.22 (78th)
Isolation = 0.96 (96th)
Off-Screen = 1.04 (101st)
Midrange = 0.80 (102nd)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.99 (146th)
Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjDEF SQ = 1.01 (180th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 84.2% (58th)
Shot Selection = 17th Percentile (65th)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.04 (99th)
Spacing = 53rd Percentile (209th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.91 (34th)
Half Court = 0.95 (74th)*
Off-Screen = 0.95 (90th)
Finishing at the Rim = 1.09 (135th)*
Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.03 (218th)
Isolation = 0.95 (257th)
* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.
USC vs. Fullerton Prediction
The sides on this game have been made razor-sharp by the oddsmakers. While this USC team is just waiting to explode, Fullerton still has a ways to go before figuring out its identity; look at their balanced shot types. The things they do more than most are the USC defense's strength. The same can be said about USC and their offense against Fullerton and their defense. It's a lot of points to lay, but I am going to ride with the Trojans.
Prediction: USC -14.5 (-110)
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