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In my last article for Sportskeeda.com I wrote about teams that WIN UGLY. That meant that teams were winning football games Straight Up (SU) but not covering the Spread (ATS). I mentioned that these teams were ones that you would want to stay away from if you were looking to bet money. You might think of fading them, especially if they were the FAV and laying points.
Well, this week I am going to be chatting about a team that has consistently WON PRETTY. Now, you say, what could that be? This is a team that finishes the season with a certain amount of wins but consistently does the same or finishes BETTER against the spread ATS. You say, there is a team or teams that finished the same or better consistently against the spread? Every gambler is always looking for an edge. Every gambler thinks they have an edge. Right now this team has the edge and I will show you the numbers to prove it. Now, we could go back every year to prove my point but that would be worthless. For my point of WINNING PRETTY, I am going to look at the seasons 2018-2021 & through wk 14 of the 2022 season. Now there may have been teams that played the same or better against the spread BUT, they did not do it for all of the seasons.
The team that has consistently matched their SU wins or done better ATS over that time has been the Cincinnati Bengals. I know you can’t believe it or think that I have lost my mind but numbers don’t lie. We are all aware that Joe Burrow is on his way to becoming a great QB. He has been the QB for CINNCY from 2020-PRES. However, he missed the last six games in 2020 with an injury. Ah yes, we will get to that soon, don’t worry.
In 2018, when Joe Burrow wasn’t on anyone’s radar, they were 6-10 SU but 7-7-1 ATS with 1NL. Obviously, CINNCY was really not that good and their HC at the time was Marvin Lewis. Many people believe, as do I, that Lewis was clueless. In any event, as a ROAD FAV that year CINNCY was 0-0. But as a ROAD DOG, they were 4-2-1 ATS with 1NL. The NL occurred in wk 11 @BALT. The NL usually occurs when the status of a starting QB is not named until a minute before gametime and the LINES do not have a time to adjust to the coach’s decision. CINNCY was 2-6 SU on the ROAD which shows that they played their opponents tough. CINNCY’s only losses that season ATS, as a DOG were @CAR & of all teams @KC. If you have been reading my articles you know why I said, what I said about KC. At HOME, CINNCY as a HOME FAV was 2-3 ATS and as a HOME DOG, they were 1-2 ATS. So the total @HOME was 3-5 ATS. Not bad for a team that went 4-4 SU @HOME. For CINNCY, vs the AFC NORTH, at HOME, they went 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS, pretty consistent. But outside the AFC NORTH, they were, 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS. If you picked your games wisely, you came out ahead. Still, for the season, they were better ATS than SU.
For 2019, Marvin Lewis was out as HC and Zac Taylor was in. When a new HC comes in, he usually brings in some new coordinators, assistants, whatever. A big transition happens on the whole team whether you know it or not. A lot of players leave and a lot of new players show up on the roster. Of course, that is for another article. Andy Dalton was still the starting QB for this team but everyone knew that his days were numbered and that this team needed an overhaul. However, something amazing still showed up in the ATS standings. Yes, CINNCY ended up going 2-14 SU which by any standards is a terrible season but, they were 7-8-1 ATS. CINNCY played their BEST football of the season, again as a ROAD DOG. They were 0-8 SU but 4-3-1 ATS. In their last AWAY game of the season in wk 16 @MIA, CINNCY was +1 but lost 38-35. This was a game that went to OT and MIA kicked a fg to win. This game could have easily gone the other way and you would not have been wrong to take CINNCY. CINNCY was 3pts from going 5-2-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG that season. As a ROAD FAV they were 0-0 SU & 0-0 ATS.
As a HOME DOG in 2019, CINNCY was 2-4 SU but 3-3 ATS. Again, they were ahead of the curve. As a HOME FAV, CINNCY was 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS. CINNCY was a HOME FAV in wks 2 and in wks 5 but was a DOG, the rest of the season. For 2019, if you spot played or even played them smartly the whole season, you came out ahead in the pocket of their actual SU record.
In 2020, Andy Dalton was gone as the QB and Joe Burrow was drafted and installed as the starting QB for CINNCY. Joe had led LSU to a national championship in 2019 and was the #1 Pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. It was a season in transition as CINNCY was trying to see what they had in Burrow. In 2020, the Cincinnati Bengals went 4-11-1 SU. But, they went 8-6-2 ATS. Those are really good numbers for ATS and we will break them down even further. On the ROAD CINNCY was 0-0 SU & 0-0 ATS as a ROAD FAV. The spread liners for the 3rd season in a row were not confident enough or CINNCY was just not plain good enough to be listed as a ROAD FAV. But as a ROAD DOG, CINNCY 1-6-1 SU & 4-4 ATS. CINNCY lost @MIA in wk 13 by a score of 19-7. But CINNCY was +11 ½ which meant they lost ATS by ½ pt. That week, if you shopped around, there may have been a line that was +12 or even +12 ½ . You may have also seen a line at +11 or even +10 ½ . Lines have a habit of moving depending on where most of the money is being wagered on. If a lot of money was being wagered on the FAV, the LINE would get bigger. If a lot of money was being wagered on the DOG, the line would get smaller. Again, another article but hopefully you get the jist.
In 2020 CINNCY was listed a HOME FAV 1x vs the JAGS in wk 4. Almost everyone is listed a s a FAV vs the JAGS but that also could be another story. Anyway, CINNCY was a HOME FAV -3 and delivered 33-25. The Line setters were confident about this but a HOME FAV-3 is very common and states that the HOME team really doesn’t have an advantage and is getting 3pts just for being @HOME. Anyway, CINNCY won and covered. As a HOME DOG, CINNCY was 2-5 SU but 3-2-2 ATS. They may have lost SU but they still played competitively and were able to finish in the money. Sometimes, depending who you place your bets with, a PUSH may not lose you any money. Of course, the two lines for the PUSH games could have been shopped around.
But, something that I mentioned earlier, I want to go back to, QB Joe Burrow. He played in the first 10 games of 2020 but sustained an injury that put him on IR for the last six games of the season. We all know that Burrow is on the path to becoming great but, how did he do in 2020, his rookie season? In his 10 games, he was 2-7-1 SU, not that great. But his ATS record was 5-3-2 ATS. That’s not too shabby for a rookie QB. Honestly, that’s pretty good. How did CINNCY do the rest of the season with backup QBs and whatnot? CINNCY went 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS. This is understandable even when their QB of the future was injured. Maybe the rest of the team played better knowing that they saw something in Burrow for the future and they believed in what HC Zac Taylor was preaching. It is not uncommon in sports for teams to play well for a coach and almost the same team plays worse for another coach.
In 2021, with a season under his belt and his injury hopefully behind him, Joe Burrow returned as the starting QB for the Cincinnati Bengals. In 2021, the Line setters now had confidence that Burrow was good and could lead this team successfully. They were not about to get burned. In 2021, CINNCY went 10-7 SU & 10-6-1 ATS. We all know they had a nice run to the SuperBowl but we are only speaking about the regular season.
As a ROAD FAV, CINNCY was 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS. Their only loss was a surprise upset @NYJ. As a ROAD DOG, CINNCY was 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS. That is very good because, they still covered nicely in a loss in wk 18. That week, CINNCY was a ROAD DOG+6 because QB Joe Burrow was rested for the game. This is where a conundrum happens. Staring QB is rested, team becomes a DOG from a FAV, will the team still play well? CINNCY lost 21-16 but covered. Tough choice there. As a HOME DOG, CINNCY was 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS. In wk 1 line setters wanted to see where CINNCY was and they won outright as a HOME DOG. Then in wk 5 vs GB as a HOME DOG+3, CINNCY PUSHED in a 25-22 loss. Then in wk 17 they beat KC 34-31 as a HOME DOG+5. As a HOME DOG, CINNCY was money. As a HOME FAV, CINNCY was 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS, yeah, winning ugly. But for 2021, they were winners if you did your homework and still came out ahead of the curve.
For 2022, we are looking at the first 13 games. CINNCY is having a good season and looking for a run in the playoffs. They are currently 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS. Again, they are ahead of the curve. As a ROAD FAV, they are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS, very consistent. As a ROAD DOG, CINNCY is 0-1 SU but 1-0 ATS. As a HOME FAV, CINNCY is 4-1 SU & 4-1, again very consistent. As a HOME DOG, CINNCY is 1-0 SU & 1-0 ATS. CINNCY is getting very good. As a DOG, they are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS. A trend here is to bet them as a DOG. As a FAV, they are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS. That is a pretty good bet. As a spot player, you can see that as a DOG, CINNCY is great and as a FAV you need to do a little extra homework but, they are still doing much better than other teams.
Overall, from 2018-2022 CINNCY is 31-46-1 SU but 42-30-5 ATS. If you had bet them SU, you would be crying because their record is terrible and you would have lost a sum of money. But, if you had bet them consistently ATS or even spot bet them and knew when to bet against them, you would be in the money. This is known as WINNING PRETTY. Obviously, there are some trends within the numbers and if you have read this article I have mentioned where those trends are, hint: ROAD DOG. Trends don’t last forever but when you find one, it is your friend. But right now, CINNCY is money.
As for this week’s game @TB, you need to read my analysis at my website, listed below. I hope that you were able to learn something new by reading this article and it enhanced your betting experience. Enjoy the games and I will see you next week!
Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games. Jeff also appears as a frequent guest on the Dr. Roto show also on the Bettor Sports Network. He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he posts his BEST BET of the WEEK every week on Fridays. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” on Wednesday evenings where they discuss NFL games. That video can be seen LIVE & is posted on Twitter and YouTube. He can be emailed at [email protected].
