5 most surprising 2025-26 NHL point total projections made by The Athletic ft. Pittsburgh Penguins

The NHL season is about to get underway as the preseason draws to a close. Teams will be making final roster cuts as lineups get set to take shape. Part of the preseason ritual is predicting where teams will finish in the standings this season.

This art of prediction is hardly an exact science, but it’s something that most major publications undertake. The Athletic is no exception. Their predicted point totals yielded some very interesting, if controversial, surprises, particularly toward the bottom of the list.

So, here’s a look at the five most surprising 2025-26 NHL point total predictions made by The Athletic.

5 most surprising 2025-26 NHL point total projections made by The Athletic

#5 Buffalo Sabres

The Buffalo Sabres are predicted to notch roughly 90 points in the 2025-26 NHL season. That may seem like a high number given their performance last season. But then again, the Sabres are a much better team than experts give them credit for.

It seems like the Sabres are always on the verge of making a breakthrough and getting back to the playoffs. Surpassing 90 points would put the Sabres on the fringe of the NHL playoff race. That’s where they should be this season. Buffalo could be this season’s biggest surprise, potentially ending their 14-year playoff drought.

#4 Anaheim Ducks

The Anaheim Ducks are predicted to finish with 81.9 points in the NHL standings this season. That total is way too low, especially for a team loaded with so much young talent. They locked up Lukas Dostal, Mason McTavish, and Jackson LaCombe to team-friendly deals this offseason. They added a key veteran piece in Chris Kreider. Returning players like Radko Gudas, Frank Vatrano, Ryan Strome, and Jacob Trouba should give the young Ducks’ core plenty of support.

It seems like the Ducks are ready to take the next step. This season could be when Anaheim makes it back to the NHL postseason under the guidance of new coach Joel Quenneville.

#3 Boston Bruins

The Boston Bruins are a tough team to call. On the one hand, they have enough star power to come back and fight for a playoff spot. On the other hand, the wheels could completely fall off the club and land in the cellar.

While the latter seems likelier, there’s always the chance the Bruins surprise people. They may not make the playoffs, but they should be better than their projected 79.9 points. As long as David Pastrnak, Jeremy Swayman, and Charlie McAvoy remain healthy and productive, the Bruins should have a fighting chance.

#2 Tampa Bay Lightning

The Athletic’s projections give the Tampa Bay Lightning the second-most point totals with 107.3. Make no mistake, the Lightning have one of the best cores in the NHL. However, questions surround the wear and tear on that elite, if aging core. The Lightning’s improved depth this season should help.

But there’s no telling if it will be enough to get past the other Eastern Conference powerhouses. The Lightning should be a playoff team, but this could be the season fans see a significant regression in Tampa. A wildcard spot may not be out of the question for the Bolts in 2025-26.

#1 Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins are hurtling toward a full rebuild. The team’s management is desperately trying to avert it as long as Sidney Crosby is on the club. But there is reason to believe that Crosby and company may not be enough to keep the Pens from finishing at the bottom of the NHL standings.

The Penguins are projected to finish 30th overall with 74.1 points. A team that has as much talent as the Penguins should climb up the standings. Yes, the Penguins are not a playoff team. But they should get much more credit given their still talented core and veteran star power.