NHL analyst picks $1.8B franchise over Hurricanes, Avalanche as NHL's most efficient spender in 2025 contract rankings

NHL's Tampa Bay Lightning made it to the playoffs once again last season. They have made it to the playoffs eight years in a row, but what stood out this time was the absence of former captain Steven Stamkos.

The two parties could not agree on the contract numbers, leading to his signing with the Nashville Predators. But still, the Lightning, worth $1.8 billion (per Forbes), made other offseason moves and improved with reasonable spending.

They have now been ranked as the NHL’s most efficient spender by analyst Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic. The Lightning were placed ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche in his latest contract efficiency rankings.

Luszczyszyn’s yearly review looks at how much value a team gets compared to what it pays its players. This year, the Lightning moved from 13th place last season to first. He explained that the change comes from players increasing their market value and the team keeping them on good contracts.

Forwards Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli played a big part in this jump. Hagel had a 90-point NHL season, while Cirelli also improved his production by 7 goals and 14 points.

“Both players saw their market value shoot up $3 million per year relative to last season,” Luszczyszyn said.

Hagel is signed on an eight-year, $52 million contract. On the other hand, Cirelli is signed to an eight-year, $50 million contract. And he is earning an average of $6.25 million per season, with his deal ending at the end of the 2030-31 season.

For comparison, Utah Mammoth’s Clayton Keller also produced 90 points last season. He is making $7.15 million per season and is due for an extension in 2028.

The NHL salary cap is projected to increase to $113.5 million in the 2027-28 season, and higher subsequently. So, with both Hagel and Cirelli signed long-term, this added extra value for the team.

Apart from Hagel Cirelli, other players' contracts also factored in the ranking improvement. Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Jakob Pelletier, Darren Raddysh, and Victor Headman are all signed on fair-value contracts.

Luszczyszyn pointed out that the Lightning have “exactly zero problem contracts on the books.”

The team’s forward group shows the biggest advantage, because Kucherov, Guentzel, Hagel, Cirelli, and Brayden Point together amount to $40.8 million in cap space. But the performance they are offering, as per Luszczyszyn’s estimates, is worth $58.5 million.

Tampa Bay Lightning sign Pontus Holmberg to boost defensive depth

Earlier on July 3, Pontus Holmberg spoke after signing a two-year, $1.55 million AAV deal with Tampa Bay. He called the Lightning “a really good team” and “a winning team.” Holmberg said via NHL.com:

“They can expect hard work of course. I’m a pretty strong guy in the corner with the puck, good puck protection… my game starts with defense.”

He hopes to “score a little bit more than last season” and believes he can “do more offensively.” Holmberg’s work ethic and defensive game fit well with Tampa Bay's plan to stay strong at 5-on-5.