NHL analyst predicts Auston Matthews' fall off as an elite goal scorer, much like Wayne Gretzky & Mario Lemieux 

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NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers - Source: Imagn
NHL analyst predicts Auston Matthews' fall off as an elite goal scorer - Source: Imagn

NHL analyst Bryan Hayes believes Auston Matthews may be entering the stage of his career where his elite goal-scoring numbers begin to decline. Hayes likened Matthews’ career path to that of legends Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux.

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After topping the league with 69 goals to claim the Rocket Richard Trophy in 2023-24, Matthews was limited by injuries last season, finishing with 33 goals in 67 games for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Speaking on TSN's "FanDuel Overdrive," Hayes made a bold prediction about Matthews' future goal-scoring prowess.

"I think it's more likely it's less than 40 [goals]," Hayes said. "We just saw it. Now, if I had to make a bet, I think he chases down 50 this year. He's somewhere in the middle."
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Hayes' argument is based on the historical trend of elite players who have experienced a decline in their goal-scoring abilities as they mature in their careers.

"Most players, especially the elite elite players, the guys who put up ridiculous statistics, they do that their first six, seven, eight years in the league and then it slowly falls off," he added.
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The analyst referenced Gretzky and Lemieux, two of the greatest players in NHL history, who both experienced a steady drop in goal production after their early years of dominance:

"Gretzky, his first seven, eight years was unbelievable and then it kind of dropped. Mario Lemieux, that's just the way it goes. Guys get 10 years into their career. It doesn't mean they're still not great. It means they usually focus on different areas of their game."
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Hayes continues to see Matthews as the game’s top pure goal scorer. But cautions that this doesn’t mean he’ll capture the Rocket Richard every season. He predicted Matthews will likely settle around the 40-goal range for most of his career, with the occasional season reaching the low-to-mid 50s.

Bryan Hayes: Auston Matthews unlikely to hit 60 goals again without Mitch Marner

Hayes believes the 60-goal plateau, which Auston Matthews has hit twice, will be difficult to reach again, especially without Mitch Marner (who was traded to Vegas) feeding him the puck.

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“So, like to expect Matthews to do it a third time without Marner at this stage in his career, I just think it's very, I think it's asking way too much,” Hayes concluded.

Hayes pointed out that hitting the 60-goal mark is a rarity in the NHL, noting Alex Ovechkin and Steven Stamkos and Connor McDavid have each done it once.

How do you think Auston Matthews will fare next season? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Edited by Veer Badani
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