NHL analyst reckons Leafs' negotiating culture with Core Four will affect Matthew Knies' contract extension expectations 

Toronto Maple Leafs forward Matthew Knies is currently a restricted free agent. His three-year, rookie contract ended this season and now the contract negotiations are ongoing between the team and his agent.

On Tuesday's TSN "OverDrive" broadcast, analysts Bryan Hayes and Jeff O’Neill discussed what Knies’ next contract could look like in Toronto.

O’Neill pointed out how inflated contract numbers often surround Leafs players. He compared Knies to Dawson Mercer, who signed for around $4.5 million despite similar stats.

"It seems like the number around Toronto just gets inflated so much for whatever reason," O’Neill said. "I have no idea. I talked about a Dawson Mercer extension... and everyone in Toronto's like, 'You got to give Knies nine.' It's like, really? Why does it have to be nine?"

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Bryan Hayes said the Maple Leafs believed too much in what others said about their star players – the Core Four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares. He questioned why players like Tkachuk, Marchand and MacKinnon often praised Toronto's top names. Hayes felt the Leafs used this outside talk to justify giving big contracts.

"...Because they allowed it to," Hayes said. "...The Leafs, the way they operated, bought into that (other star players' praise) and thought, it's so tough and we can't find anyone and no one's going to come up here, and we better just pay these guys and forget it."

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Hayes added some of those choices came from fear. The Leafs were in a win-now window and didn’t want contract talks to affect team focus. So they gave in and signed deals quickly.

Hayes further explained that Toronto created this problem by overpaying in past negotiations. He said the Leafs treated Auston Matthews like Connor McDavid, Mitch Marner like Leon Draisaitl and William Nylander like Nikita Kucherov. In doing so, the Leafs set a standard that rewarded players without insisting on value.

Hayes believes this has shaped the team’s culture and now affects what younger players like Knies might expect.

"And this is what happens with the culture of the team... like Knies—...I like this kid a lot, man," Hayes said. "I love the way he loves being a Maple Leaf. I love the way he plays. I love where his future is going, and I look forward to seeing it blossom here in Toronto.

"But he would not be in the wrong to look at the other guys who are the leaders and say, "Well, this is how they operate. This is how they negotiate... And that's on the team to stop it," he added.

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Hayes also stressed that general manager Brad Treliving must put a stop to it:

"It's been killing them. You can't overpay."

Matthew Knies scored 29 goals and 58 points in the 2024-25 regular season. He added five goals and two assists in the playoffs after playing 13 playoff games. His big 6-foot-3, 225-pound frame helped around the net and was strong on the puck.

Knies had two multi-point games against Florida, but he struggled in the Leafs' last four games, just like Marner and Nylander.

Matthew Knies' next contract with Leafs will depend on contract years, per Hayes

Jeff O’Neill also criticized the early talk of Knies being an offer sheet target and called the $8-10 million rumors overblown. Hayes agreed, saying if it's a long-term deal, maybe the number is $7-8 million, but a bridge deal should be lower.

"[If] It's a long-term deal. You got to pay him...," Hayes said. "I don't know what that number is. Maybe it's seven, maybe it's eight. And maybe that makes sense for both parties. But if it's a bridge, it's nowhere close to that number. No, it's a smaller number."

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Toronto's GM Treliving recently said the team’s “DNA has to change,” especially after another early playoff exit. He confirmed Toronto wants to sign Knies but didn't give much details.

"Like to get it done as soon...," Treliving said. "Matthew had a tremendous year right. We're sort of seeing him evolve in front of our eyes."

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The GM also said there’s no guarantee Mitch Marner or John Tavares will return after their contracts expire. He added that Toronto has started building its plan for the 2025-26 season.