NHL analyst speculates on Brock Boeser's next contract figure amid uncertain future with Canucks

NHL analyst Dom Luszczyszyn shared his thoughts on what Brock Boeser’s next contract might look like. It came as questions continue to swirl around the forward’s future with the Vancouver Canucks.

Boeser wrapped up the final year of his three-year $19.95 million contract. As he approaches unrestricted free agency this summer, his next deal has been the subject of a lot of speculation.

NHL insider Frank Seravalli reported that before the trade deadline, the Canucks offered Boeser a five-year deal worth $8 million annually.

Leading salary projection sites share similar expectations. AFP Analytics forecasted a six-year $8.5 million AAV deal and Evolving Hockey predicted a seven-year $8.2 million annual salary.

However, Luszczyszyn believes those figures overestimate Boeser's value as he enters his late 20s.

"That’s a lot of money for a 28-year-old complementary winger, a price tag that Boeser will likely have a hard time living up to," Luszczyszyn wrote on Friday, via The Athletic. "At $8.5 million, the expectation next season is a bona fide top-line player worth 8.5 goals above average.”

Luszczyszyn added that Boeser's realistic ceiling is more in line with a top-tier second-line player rather than a true first-line star.

“Boeser, in Year 1, is probably already closer to the latter than the former," Luszczyszyn wrote. "Take $500,000 off the cap hit and the expectation drops by just under one goal per season. That’s more manageable, yes, but still probably not enough to get to Boeser’s base trajectory."

Luszczyszyn cautions against paying wingers nearing 30 solely based on best-case scenario projections. While Boeser could emerge as a top-line scorer, his average case is likely closer to a good second-line winger.

Dom Luszczyszyn on "riskiest" Brock Boeser

Dom Luszczyszyn compared signing Brock Boeser to "rolling a dice." He highlighted that there's a chance he could thrive as a high-priced star, but more likely outcomes point to him struggling to live up to expectations.

"For a team desperate for scoring, Boeser is going to be an attractive player on free agency day," Luszczyszyn wrote on Friday, via The Athletic. "But at the prices teams are expected to pay for his services, he also looks like one of the riskiest."

Whichever team that signs Boeser will take a calculated risk. He could flourish as a top-line scorer; however, if he doesn't live up to expectations, that hefty contract could turn into a burden.