NHL insider hints at monster figure for Connor McDavid's next Oilers contract - "Don't expect him to sign for $19M AAV"

Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid failed to lift the Stanley Cup for another season after making it to the finals. The Oilers lost to the Florida Panthers, this time in Game 6. Now, McDavid is committed to getting back to the Stanley Cup finals next season. But that will be yet another uphill climb, especially since he is entering the last year of his eight-year, $100 million contract.

McDavid's current cap hit is $12.5 million per season. With the NHL salary cap going up, there is growing talk about what his next deal will look like. On Friday, NHL insider Elliotte Friedman spoke about this on the 32 Thoughts podcast.

"I'll say this—one thing Edmonton is very lucky about is that the cap is going up now," Friedman said. [7:33] "It's not stagnant anymore, and that gives them a better chance."

Friedman said McDavid is going to sign for a huge number and that he deserves every penny.

"Look, they've got Draisaitl at 14. McDavid is going to sign for some huge number, and he deserves every penny of it," Friedman said. "Remember, last time, McDavid didn't sign for as much as he could have. So I don't expect it to be any different this time. The maximum he can sign for, I think, is like $19 million."

But Friedman doesn’t expect McDavid to ask for that full amount. He still expects it to be a large number, just not the absolute max.

"I don't expect him to sign for $19 million, now—do I still think it'll be a big number? Absolutely," Friedman said. "And again, no one's complaining about it. But if history is any indication, he's not going for the max."

The cap will increase to $95.5 million in the 2025-26 season. That’s a $7.5 million jump from the previous year. This gives Edmonton more room to work with when re-signing top players.

However, the Oilers already have Draisaitl signed to a new contract at $14 million per year through 2033. They also pay Zach Hyman, Evander Kane and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins close to $5 million per year each. On defense, Darnell Nurse earns $9.25 million and Mattias Ekholm makes $6 million per year. So, the team has a strong core under contract.

Oilers over-reliance on Connor McDavid came back to hurt them

Connor McDavid had another strong season in 2024–25. He scored 26 goals and added 74 assists, finishing with 100 points (his eighth). That placed him sixth in NHL scoring below teammate Leon Draisaitl, who scored 106.

In the playoffs, he led all players with 33 points in 22 games, tied with Draisaitl. However, in the Stanley Cup finals series, he could score only one goal, and it played a big role in the Oilers' loss to the Panthers.

In Game 6, McDavid had two shots. Florida shut him and Draisaitl down, and the Oilers had no answer. But to win it all next season, McDavid's scoring touch will be needed if they make it to the finals.

Edmonton’s goal is clear: to win the Stanley Cup in 2026, and McDavid could be the one to lead the way beside Draisaitl.