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The Toronto Maple Leafs (46-26-10, 24-11-6 away, third in the Atlantic Division) visit the Boston Bruins (47-20-15, 24-11-6 home, second) at TD Garden in Boston on Monday at 7 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on ESPN, SN, CBC, TVAS and NESN.
The Bruins took the series lead with a strong 5-1 win in the first game. The Leafs will look to even the series with a win on Monday. The Bruins, with odds of -135, remain the favorites, and the total is set at 5.5 goals.
The Bruins have dominated recent meetings, winning the last eight, including all five this season, outscoring the Leafs 20-8.
The Leafs, who have seen the total go over in their last six games and have allowed at least five goals in their last five games, last won against the Bruins on Nov 5, 2022. Their last win in Boston was on March 29, 2022, with Erik Kallgren in goal.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins: Game preview
The Boston Bruins are averaging 3.21 goals per game, ranking 14th in the league, fifth in goals against per game with 2.70, and 22nd in shots per game with 29.3. They have a power play success rate of 22.2%, ranking 14th in the league.
In their last 10 games, they have gone 6-4-0, with an average of 2.6 goals per game. In their recent 5-1 win, Jake DeBrusk scored two power play goals, while Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy had two assists apiece.
David Pastrnak has been a key player, scoring a goal in five of the last six home games against the Maple Leafs and recording at least one assist in 19 of the last 22 games against Atlantic Division opponents.
Brad Marchand has been a consistent contributor in the playoffs, recording at least one point in 16 of the last 17 playoffs games and tallying seven goals and 23 points in 22 career playoff games against the Maple Leafs.
Brandon Carlo has scored two goals against the Maple Leafs this season, his highest total against any team. Goalie Jeremy Swayman was impressive, stopping 35 of 36 shots from the Maple Leafs.
Meanwhile, the Toronto Maple Leafs are ranked second in scoring with an average of 3.63 goals per game. They are seventh in the league in shots per game with an average of 32.6 and seventh in power play success rate at 24.0%.
Over the last 10 games, they have a 4-5-1 record, averaging 3.5 goals, five assists, 4.7 penalties and 11.1 penalty minutes per game, giving up 3.9 goals per game.
In the recent game on Saturday, David Kampf was a standout player, scoring the first goal in the third period. The team fell behind 1-0 in the first period after 2:26, with John Beecher scoring the goals assisted by Jesper Boqvist and Pat Maroon.
Despite their strong performance throughout the season, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander and other key players on offense were unable to score. Goalie Ilya Samsonov saved 19 of 23 shots he faced.
Auston Matthews has been a key contributor, recording at least one assist in each of the last five Game 2s of a playoff series and leads the league in goals this season with 69.
Morgan Rielly has recorded at least one point in his last seven Monday games against Eastern Conference opponents.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins: Injury report
The Maple Leafs and the Bruins are both grappling with several injuries. For the Bruins, Justin Brazeau is out with an upper-body injury, Milan Lucic is out for personal reasons, while Matthew Poitras is out with a shoulder injury.
For the Toronto Maple Leafs, Bobby McMann is day-to-day with a lower body injury, John Klingberg and Jake Muzzin are out for the season with hip and back injuries respectively.
Matt Murray is also out with a hip injury, while key player William Nylander is day-to-day due to an undisclosed condition.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins: Head-to-head and significant numbers
The Bruins and the Maple Leafs have faced each other 689 times in both regular season and playoff games.
The Bruins hold a record of 309-269-98-13 against the Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs have a penalty kill success rate of 76.9%, while the Bruins, with high success rate of 82.5%, are ranked seventh in the league.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins: Odds and prediction
Being the favorite in the odds, the Boston Bruins have won 39 of 68 games and have a winning 18-10 record when the odds are shorter than -135. That suggests a 59.3% chance of Boston winning tonight's game.
Meanwhile, the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have been the underdogs in 19 games, managing seven upsets. When the odds have put Toronto as underdogs of +128 or longer, they have a 1-3 record, indicating a 43.9% chance of winning this game.
Prediction: Bruins 5-4 Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins: Betting tips
Tip 1: Bruins to win
Tip 2: Total goals over 5.5: Yes
Tip 3: David Pastrnak to score anytime: Yes
Tip 4: Auston Matthews to score first: Yes
Tip 5: Maple Leafs to beat the spread: Yes
