Would Toronto Maple Leafs have walked over Edmonton Oilers in hypothetical 2025 Stanley Cup Final matchup?

The Edmonton Oilers’ largely disappointing showing against the Florida Panthers in the 2025 Stanley Cup Final raised plenty of questions. The Panthers dominated the Oilers, but their road to the final was not the smoothest.

The Panthers ran into some trouble in the second round against the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs had the Panthers on the ropes, up 2-0 in the series.

The Leafs allowed the Panthers to get back into the series as the showdown went the distance. In the end, it was the Panthers who prevailed.

One has to wonder, though: What would have happened if the Toronto Maple Leafs had knocked off the Panthers?

The possibility of a Stanley Cup Final matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Edmonton Oilers would have been quite high. The Leafs would have entered the Cup Final as a juggernaut against an equally formidable Oilers squad.

So, is it fair to say that the Toronto Maple Leafs would have steamrolled the Edmonton Oilers?

The Leafs pushed the Panthers to seven games, nearly knocking them out. The Edmonton Oilers, on the other hand, struggled against the Panthers, falling in six games.

Assuming all things remained equal, the Leafs would have fancied themselves against the Oilers in a hypothetical Stanley Cup Final.

The Oilers' two wins against the Panthers were close, overtime games which could have gone either way. Meanwhile, the Leafs' three wins were decided victories. Toronto's Game 6 victory was a masterclass. The Leafs shutout the Panthers 2-0, the only time the Panthers were shutout this postseason.

The Maple Leafs showed better numbers in their 13 games as compared to the Oilers when digging deeper at the analytics.

According to Hockey Reference, the biggest number that stands out is shooting percentage. The Leafs showed a 9.8% shooting percentage compared to the Oilers' 8.1%

What's even more interesting is the Oilers peppered Sergei Bobrovsky with 210 shots, while the Leafs only landed 173. Both clubs scored 17 goals despite the disparate shot differential,

Another interesting number refers to the amount of total shifts. The Leafs registered 3,093 total shifts in the seven-game series, while the Oilers only had 2,589.

That number signals the Leafs consistently rolled four lines against the Panthers, while the Oilers shortened their bench, deploying Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl far too often.

For comparison's sake, McDavid averaged 27:32 of ice time while Auston Matthews averaged 20:31. That overreliance on McDavid and Draisaitl facilitated things for the Panthers as all they needed to do was shut down the pair.

One other point: The Leafs depth scoring picked up the slack for the lack of firepower from its major stars. The top three scorers for Toronto against Florida were William Nylander, Max Pacioretty, and Max Domi.

The Oilers, unsurprisingly, had Draisaitl, McDavid, and Evan Bouchard lead the way. All the Leafs would have had to do was shut down McDavid and Draisaitl much the same way the Panthers did in a head-to-head matchup,

The Oilers would have needed to stop Matthews, Nylander, and Mitch Marner, while facing the prospect of Toronto's depth scoring picking up the slack. That's why, judging from the numbers, Edmonton would have faced another "lighter" version of the Panthers in the Toronto Maple Leafs.

While fans will never know who would have won in this hypothetical Stanley Cup Final, the numbers seems to suggest the Leafs could have gotten the edge.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup Final would have pitted the NHL’s two best players against one another

Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews would have headlined a dream Stanley Cup Final - Source: Imagn

An added bonus to an Edmonton Oilers-Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Final matchup would have been seeing the league’s two best players, Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, go head-to-head for the Stanley Cup.

McDavid and his uncanny speed would have gone up against Matthews’ superb two-way play. The two superstars would have had plenty of opportunities to dazzle, settling the score as to who is the best once and for all.

The victor would have had the bragging rights to claim he was the best.

McDavid and Matthews are still young and the Leafs and Oilers are still good teams. There’s certainly a chance fans will get to see a Stanley Cup Final featuring Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews.

But that will have to wait at least one more season.

The 2025-26 season will kick off this fall with all 32 teams starting from scratch. While the Florida Panthers will likely enter as the favorites to three-peat, who knows if next season will finally be the year the Maple Leafs make it to the Cup Final?

Perhaps next spring, fans will be treated to one of the best toe-to-toe matchups in recent memory.