England or Australia - who are favorites to win 1st Ashes test ahead of Day 5?

The first Ashes 2023 Test between Australia and England is balanced on a knife edge, with both teams feeling that they have the advantage heading into Day 5.

Australia find themselves in a spot of bother at Edgbaston, currently at 107/3 in pursuit of chasing 281.

It seems like deja vu for the Australian side, as they had also needed 282 at the same venue in Ashes 2005 when they agonizingly lost the Test by just two runs. And they would be desperate to change the script this time in what has been an epic battle between the two eternal rivals.

Australia will know that one substantial partnership will get them close to the target, while England have their tails up after picking up with three late wickets, including the big scalps of the dangerous duo of Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith, both perishing to loose shots against Stuart Broad.

So who is winning this first Ashes Test match, Australia or England?

England or Australia - who are favorites to win 1st Ashes Test ahead of Day 5?

Stuart Broad's walking the talk

When Stuart Broad claimed in April that he had invented a mystery outswinger in order to get Labuschagne and Smith in the upcoming Ashes, little did anyone know that he meant business.

Both Smith and Labuschagne have been plagued with uncertainty about their off stump, and Broad made sure England got the upper hand by bowling 'top-of-off wobble-seam, top-of-off wobble-seam, surprise outswinger' to dismiss the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked batsmen.

Broad was on a roll, and the ball was coming from his hand like a dream. And when he is in this sort of form, any batsman will find it hard to counter his impacable lines.

His average of 23.2 and SR of 51.2 bowling in the fourth innings will also be on the minds of Australian batsmen.

Too many left-handed players bring Moeen into the game

Australia, after losing three of their mainstays, is huffing and puffing right now with their upcoming batsmen, who are either short of runs or confidence.

With Usman Khawaja still holding the fort and Travis Head, Cameron Green and Alex Carey still to come, Australia still have enough firepower to overhaul the target, but even the pitch that has some assistance for the spinners.

With Australia having three left-handed batters in their batting line-up, England will try to exploit the match-up by bowling Moeen Ali into them.

Nathan Lyon picking up eight wickets in both innings indicates one thing for sure: it's not going to be an easy chase for the Australian side, with the pitch behaving slowly even on Day 1 of the Ashes test.

Khawaja holds the key

Usman Khawaja, who slammed a breezy hundred in the first innings, is still batting along with Scott Boland and is looking rock solid in his defense so far.

He will be the cohesive force for the Australian side, around whom the team's other batters will look to bat.

With just 174 runs needed, one good partnership of 70–80 runs for Australia will put England under pressure, with them going into panic mode and bowling too many boundary balls.

The way Khawaja has been dominating the spinners without allowing them to settle down will be crucial in negating the Moeen Ali factor in the fourth innings.

Also, he has been disciplined in his judgment so far in both innings, leaving everything outside, forcing the pacers to bowl into his body.

So who's going to take the lead by winning the first Ashes Test?

England have runs on the board with bowlers like Broad and James Anderson bowling with astute perfection and planning.

One or two quick wickets in the first hour will push Australia to the wall and it will take a monumental effort from them to pull out a win from there. And if England gets out with the wicket of Khawaja, then, more or less, the match's fate will be decided at that very moment.

Hence, England have a better shot at going 1-0 in the first Ashes Test.