England or Australia - which team is at an advantage ahead of Day 3 of 5th Ashes Test at The Oval?

England and Australia will resume their intriguing battle in the fifth and final Ashes 2023 Test at The Oval on Saturday - Day 3 of the Test. The Aussies won the toss and inserted the hosts into bat on the opening day of the contest. Australia’s bowlers did a good job to bowl out England for 283 in 54.4 overs.

Australian left-arm pacer Mitchell Starc starred with 4/82 as England were held to under 300. Starc dismissed Ben Stokes with a beauty and added the scalps of Harry Brook, Stuart Broad, and Chris Woakes. Josh Hazlewood and Todd Murphy also chipped in with two scalps each. For England, Brook top-scored with 85, while opener Ben Duckett contributed a run-a-ball 41.

Responding to England’s first-innings total, Australia were bowled out for 295 on Day 2. They were in big trouble at 185/7 before Steve Smith (71), Pat Cummins (36) and Murphy (34) lifted them and ensured a slender 12-run lead for the visitors.

Heading into Day 3 of The Oval Test, we analyze which team holds the upper hand.

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Australia are at a disadvantage despite gaining a small lead

Steve Smith top-scored with 71. (Pic: Getty Images)

Australia may have recovered from a precarious position to take a small lead on Day 2 of The Oval Test. However, they would be disappointed with their overall batting effort.

Having bowled out England for 283 on the opening day of the Test match, Australia should ideally have looked to score in excess of 400 and gain the upper hand in the contest. A 12-run lead is completely a negligible one and the match is now down to a second-innings tussle.

Australia will have to bat fourth in the match and, irrespective of how the surface plays, batting last is never easy in a Test match. And so it was extremely significant to try and stretch the first innings lead as much as possible. It wasn’t to be though as a number of their batters failed again, which has been Australia’s Achilles' heel in the last three Tests.

Openers David Warner and Usman Khawaja could not covert their starts. Marnus Labuschagne hung around for 82 balls but scored only 9. Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, and Alex Carey also disappointed. Smith, himself, admitted after the end of the second’s day play that Australia did not bat well.

He lamented:

“A lot of us got starts and weren't able to capitalize and go and put one of those partnerships that were 40 or 50 into 100-150 to give us a decent lead. So a bit disappointing from that aspect. I would have liked a few more partners to maybe stick around and be able to just play normally for a while.”

Smith’s statement is a clear indication that Australia know they are in trouble in the Test match.

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Time for Bazball to come to the fore?

Harry Brook scored an aggressive 85 in the first innings. (Pic: Getty Images)

The debate over England’s ultra-aggressive approach with the bat (Bazball) is yet to be settled. There was some criticism over their performance in the first innings of the ongoing Test as well.

They scored 283 in only 54.4 overs but lost all their 10 wickets. The pace at which they scored, though, has kept them in the game in the wake of Australia’s inability to capitalize on the advantage on Day 2.

England will look to be aggressive again, one believes. Even if they lose a few wickets in the process, they will be keen to set Australia a target of around 275-300.

The Aussies aren't completely out of the contest yet. If they bundle out England cheaply in the second innings, they will be back in the game. But that won’t be easy as the Englishmen will be confident of a good show after being dominant in the last two Tests.

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A tough chasing ground gives England the upper hand

England’s fast bowlers have had the upper hand over Australia’s batters in recent Tests. (Pic: Getty Images)

Another reason why England will believe they have a great chance of finishing Ashes 2023 with a 2-2 scoreline is that big scores have not been chased successfully at The Oval.

While India’s 429/8 in 1979 is the highest fourth-innings total at the venue, the highest chase in a winning cause is 263. The target was achieved by England against Australia way back in 1902. The hosts scampered home by one wicket in the chase.

The only other occasion when a score in excess of 250 was chased down at The Oval was when West Indies scored 255/2 in 1963 after being set a target of 253. India recently took on Australia in the World Test Championship (WTC) 2023 final at The Oval and went down by 209 runs after being asked to chase 444.

The Aussies will be well aware that they squandered a great opportunity to gain the upper hand on Day 2. England will be equally mindful that the ball is now in their court. Only an atrocious batting effort can bring Australia right back into the contest.