2025 F1 Spanish GP: Top 5 bold predictions

The F1 Spanish GP comes at an interesting juncture this season as the FIA technical directive comes into effect this weekend. We're eight races into the season, and the Drivers' championship is as open as it could be. There are three drivers within 25 points of each other.

The Top 2 are separated by just three points after eight races, while Max Verstappen, who is third in the championship, is 25 points behind championship leader Oscar Piastri and 22 points behind Lando Norris. The F1 Spanish GP weekend is crucial in many ways because it will be the one where the pecking order will be more or less defined.

You won't see many upgrades after this one. The impact of the technical directive would be evident as well. So, what can we expect from the F1 Spanish GP? Let's take a look.

#5. The stiffer wings won't have a drastic change in the pecking order

While the implementation of the new technical directive is expected to shake things up quite a bit, the reality might be far from it. More or less, there would probably be a tenth or so lost, but would be gained through upgrades that the teams would bring.

Could we see a bit of a shuffle in the pecking order? Sure. McLaren is one team that tends to get pointed out, but it is not the only one. Alpine seemingly made a big jump over the winter, aided by flex wings. The picture would become clearer in the next few races, but we won't have a scenario where a car falls off a cliff and is half a second slower after the implementation of the technical directive.

#4. Fernando Alonso emerges as the best of the midfield

The true impact of Aston Martin's Imola upgrades has not yet materialized in terms of results. In Imola, it was the strategy that hurt Alonso. In Monaco, it was the reliability issue. However, the team has made a tangible progress, and at the F1 Spanish GP, we back Fernando Alonso to once again show it in qualifying.

The litmus test is going to be the race where the car has failed to deliver results. This time around, though, we back Fernando Alonso to not only score points but be the best in the midfield.

#3. Tire degradation won't be a factor this race weekend

In the last couple of races in Imola and Monaco, tire degradation has been a conversation that many have indulged in. Thanks to Pirelli being given the mandate, where it has to help spice up the racing, the softer compounds brought to the races have added an interesting level of variability.

For the F1 Spanish GP, however, this variability would not be there, as Pirelli is bringing the hardest set of compounds for the weekend. It does make sense as well because the track is high speed and tends to punish the tires anyway. The softer compound could end up being dangerous in these circumstances as well.

With that being said, we had a one-stopper last season on the same tires, and cars were able to manage their way through the race. This year, they are far more adept at managing the tires, and hence, maybe Pirelli could have gone a step softer. While that has not happened, tire management would not be a debate in the F1 Spanish GP, and hence, we might see a more straightforward race.

#2. The battle for the win would be between McLaren and Red Bull

The track characteristics of Barcelona have changed a bit since we reverted to the old track layout. The emphasis on the slow-speed sections is not there anymore, and now it's more about the efficiency around the fast-speed sections. That's where Red Bull has shown a distinct advantage over teams, including McLaren. There are still zones where the reigning champions would continue to stay competitive around the lap.

The higher temperature, the demand from tires, and the fast speed sections mean it's going to be a toss-up between McLaren and Red Bull this weekend, while Mercedes and Ferrari trail the top 2 teams.

#1. Max Verstappen wins the F1 Spanish GP

While much has been made of McLaren's ability to keep the tires in the window, the perception took a big blow in Imola, where Max Verstappen had almost as good a level of tire degradation. There are still going to be races this season where the Woking-based squad replicates the form it showed in Miami.

The F1 Spanish GP, however, will not be one of those races. The primary reason behind that is not the tires but the fact that the track is front-limited, while Miami was a rear-limited track. McLaren's strength lies in its ability to keep the rear tires under control, but that won't be the biggest factor this time around.

Once we've established that, it's safe to say that Max Verstappen is going to be a factor this race weekend. The Red Bull is going to be fast and competitive in the F1 Spanish GP, and we're backing the Dutch driver to eat into the 25-point lead that Oscar Piastri has right now.