EPL 2016/17: Top Four Predictions

The balance and spine Chelsea possess is what sets them apart from their rivals

The Premier League for the past several seasons was a story of the ‘top four’ vying for the coveted crown and title. This top four consisted of Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea. Being able to predict the winner was never easy, but knowing who would be playing in the Champions League come next season certainly was.

Though as one team began to fall away, another would take its place as Liverpool lost steam and Manchester City began to invest heavily. Now though things are different.

Predicting the top four is no longer as simple as it once was as six teams are left to fight amongst each other for a seat in Europe’s most prestigious competition. This article will predict the chances of each of the top six and who will fall by the side come season’s end.


Chelsea

At this stage of last season, Chelsea were completely ‘down and out.’ For a team consisting of title-winners, both domestically and nationally, languishing near the middle of the table was surely not on the agenda.

They were cumbersome on the ball, lacking quality and self-belief as the opposition began to smell weakness. Teams took to this advantage time and again, over-running a title-winning team that had seemingly given up.

Fast forward to the present and the juxtaposition in style and mentality is genuinely mind-boggling. Few, if any people would have predicted a meteoric rise in the style and performances we have seen from Chelsea this season. A cataclysmic downfall would apparently not repeat itself once more.

Many are labelling them as ‘Champions-elect’ with nine games still to be played and every team they face now have already been beaten previously in the season. There are still tough fixtures to come such as those against the Manchester clubs or against an Everton team slowly gaining confidence and form.

However, even if Chelsea are only able to pick up some less than favourable results, a place in the Champions League next season beckons.

Not only have Chelsea been able to restore parity to their performances, they have also been able to transform at will during games by adopting a myriad of differing styles if games are not going their way.

There’s the ruthless and efficient unit that stretch their opponents all over the pitch before picking them off, such as against Manchester United and Everton earlier in the season. Then they have lightning fast counter-attacks, such as against Arsenal and Manchester City, when the opposition are pressing against them.

Most importantly we have seen their pragmatic style come to the fore in recent weeks, able to ride their luck by grounding out results against compact and defensive-orientated teams such as West Bromwich Albion and Stoke.

Pragmatism is what wins Championships, or so they say. In the 2014/15 season, Chelsea played with a swashbuckling tenacity during the first half of the season prior to resorting to a sturdy and compact side in the second.

As the season draws to a close, results are head and shoulders above style in terms of importance and that is what we are beginning to see now.

Chelsea possess players whose abilities can not be doubted, whose influence and experience is paramount to leading a title charge. Eden Hazard is back to his scintillating best as he turns defences over with considerable ease.

Diego Costa has quelled the disruptive side to his play, allowing the beast within to focus on the ball and not the oppositions’ players, seventeen goals and five assists so far this season attest to that. Chelsea though, are a team, rather than a group of individuals with incredible talents.

N’Golo Kante and David Luiz have been imperious at the heart of midfield and defence as they usher away any threat of danger by winning second, third or even forth balls if need be.

The balance and spine Chelsea possess is what sets them apart from their rivals. Their often impenetrable defence can shift into a dynamic and free-flowing attack almost instantaneously. They don’t possess a league-best thirty-seven goal difference for nothing.

This is a team who is nailed on for a top-four finish and quite possibly, another title for the trophy cabinet.

Chances of a top four finish - 10/10

Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham Hotspur
Their style of play is one of high-energy and aggression as they refuse to give their opponents a moment’s rest

For the past few seasons, Tottenham have teetered on the cusp of greatness. They weren’t quite able to reach the upper echelons of English football in terms of talent and popularity but offered a large gulf in quality between themselves and the teams below.

The label of ‘nearly men’ surely spurred them on to achieve greatness and it is most assuredly redundant in the current climate. This team consists of a group of incredibly talented individuals with a strong English core and an envious sense of squad unity that when clicks, makes them appear seemingly unbeatable.

During the beginning of this season and the last, Tottenham often suffered from draws that should certainly have been winnable. October of 2016 alone saw them draw three of their Premier League games against an out-of-sorts Leicester City, a sturdy yet beatable West Brom and an overachieving Bournemouth side.

Once they are able to overcome their early season jitters, Tottenham are now trying to be counted amongst the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City as favourites for the coveted trophy.

Tottenham’s run-in is certainly favourable. Only two teams lie within the top half of the table with Manchester United being the stand-out game since Tottenham lost at Old Trafford earlier in the season.

Yet the feeling is that when they once more face the Manchester giants, they will find themselves as favourites. They are now showing a level of consistency as they so often do at this stage of the season for winning games comfortably, regardless of the opposition.

Their style of play is one of high-energy and aggression as they refuse to give their opponents a moment’s rest.

Like Liverpool at their free-flowing best, they can seemingly score goals for fun as Harry Kane, Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen tear through defences with ruthless intelligence. This coupled with one of the meanest defences in the division is certainly a very real threat to any of their directed rivals.

Tottenham currently hold thirteen clean sheets and Hugo Lloris has only allowed a league best of twenty-one goals slip by him so far this season. This coupled with the fact they currently possess a second best in the league goal difference of thirty-six shows us that this is not a team of many weaknesses.

Though no team is without their flaws and a noticeable one in Tottenham is their tendency to falter at the beginning of the season as previously mentioned, and the home-stretch.

Not many teams can come third in a two-horse race like Tottenham found themselves doing last year as Arsenal were able to steal a march on their position. This is something that they will have to mentally prepare for as the race for a top-four position becomes tighter year upon year.

There is also something to be said in regards to a lack in squad depth and no strong sense of an iron-clad mentality for success. Their strongest eleven looks like a harrowing task for any opponent, yet if problems arise for Tottenham and they have to turn to their bench, it does not exactly inspire confidence compared to that of their rivals.

This is a situation that will test the mettle of the men on the pitch. They must show that if things are not going their way and they have nobody to turn to, they can turn things in their favour themselves.

Tottenham will no doubt strengthen themselves in the summer window and as the players become more experienced, so will their ability to fight for everything from the first game to the last. As it currently stands though, they are at their very least, looking towards a top-four finish and a chance of winning the FA Cup.

Chances of a top four finish - 9/10

Liverpool

Liverpool must show they can adapt and harbour a strong mentality if they are to find themselves in the Champions League next season

Liverpool currently occupy a position inside the top-four but only just. Recently they made light work of their Merseyside rivals Everton and have won three of their last four games in the Premier League. They would appear to be one of the favourites for a Champions League spot come season’s end.

Yet too often this season have Liverpool constructed a mountain for themselves to climb. Their problem isn’t against facing direct rivals vying for the trophy, it is the teams nearer the other end of the table. Hypothetically if you were to fashion a league made out of the top six sides currently in England, Liverpool would be runaway leaders.

Four of Liverpool’s five defeats in the league this season have come against sides who started the match in the relegation zone, most recently their hammering at the hands of a Ranieri-less Leicester. During the opening stages of the season, the Reds played exhilarating football.

Their defence was certainly porous as it has been nearly all season, but at that stage, it did not matter. They were simply able to outscore their opponents. Yet this should have been seen as foreshadowing. Liverpool play with an energy-sapping intensity that was bound to slow them down at some point.

When that happened and they found themselves unable to break through defences at will, they lacked a plan B to overcome it. They do not possess the adaptability of teams such as Chelsea and Tottenham. They will continue to hammer on a door that simply won’t budge rather than look for the open window around the side of the house.

Simply enforcing their style of play has often run them into the ground only to be picked off by teams such as Bournemouth and Burnley.

During the earlier stages of the season, players such as Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino left defenders in their wake. Their relentless drive was orchestrated via their dynamic Brazilian wizard Philippe Coutinho, a player who possesses the ability to land a football on a tee from fifty yards.

At one point they looked nailed on to break the one-hundred goal barrier for the season as superlatives were thrown around in regards to their displays of attacking talent. Now though, such an achievement appears unreachable. Since Coutinho’s lengthy lay off and Sadio Mane’s return from a heartbreaking AFCON, the team appear unable to click.

Their cohesive fluidity had deserted them, replaced by stray balls peppered across the field and a general lack of sharpness in the final third.

Whilst their attacking displays have slowly begun to improve as Coutinho once more finds form, their defence must be reconstructed during the summer transfer window. Numerous times it has been stated that Liverpool do not possess a goalkeeper of their direct rivals’ calibre.

When people look to the best men between the sticks on these shores they think of David De Gea, Hugo Lloris or Thibaut Courtois. Certainly not Simon Mignolet or Loris Karius. Costly mistakes through a lack of communication between the goalie and defenders have thwarted Liverpool’s chances of winning the title time and again this season.

Confidence in players such as Dejan Lovren and Ragnar Klavan is most certainly low and hardly instils reassurance in the fans. Jurgen Klopp opts to assign James Milner as a makeshift left-back and station Lucas Leiva, a player who has no right of being there, at the heart of defence.

There is a certain amount of positivity in the acquisition of Joel Matip who is certainly a decent signing but Liverpool will need to once more recruit in the summer to build upon a threadbare defensive unit.

Liverpool’s upcoming fixtures are fairly daunting on the face of it. Their next game comes against a Bournemouth team who beat them at the death thanks to a goal from Chelsea loanee Nathan Ake, and further games against a resurgent Crystal Palace and a compact West Brom could further hinder Liverpool’s top four aspirations.

Liverpool must show they can adapt and harbour a strong mentality if they are to find themselves in the Champions League next season.

Chances of a top four finish - 7/10

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola’s side certainly have one of the most difficult fixture lists

This season was originally dubbed ‘The battle of Manchester’ before a ball had even been kicked. Pundits and fans alike drooled over the tactical battles they would witness between two of the most successful managers in history. Jose Mourinho versus Pep Guardiola, only one could take the crown.

During the opening stages, the battle swung in Guardiola’s favour. Manchester City were able to brush aside any foe that stood before them with relative ease as they won their first ten games in a row in all competitions.

In comparison to their direct rivals, City hold an alarming strength in depth. Nearly all positions have a host of world-class players vying for a starting spot. This coupled with young but incredibly talented up-and-comers such as Leroy Sane and Gabriel Jesus were certainly a frightening aspect for both present and future.

David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne were dictating play as they ghosted through defences at will, inch perfect passes nearly always finding their spear-head in Sergio Aguero. A player rightfully anointed the best and most complete striker in the Premier League.

Their coronation of the crown come May seemed inevitable, that is until they hit their first real stumbling block in the shape of Tottenham. Manchester City were outplayed and outsmarted. A Tottenham win never appeared in doubt from kick-off until the final whistle.

Pep Guardiola’s side were unprepared and seemingly in shock. They had felt invincible and took the loss extremely hard as they began to tear apart at the seams with lifeless performances leading to bore-draws or embarrassing losses such as that against their city rivals Manchester United.

Furthermore, when things weren’t going their way, Manchester City lacked the self-belief and ability to turn things around as Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool began to build steam.

Like Liverpool, Manchester City were unable to create solutions to the sudden implosion of form. Their listless performances were mirrored by Pep Guardiola’s sulky demeanour as he became despondent in post-match interviews.

A great deal of the blame can be placed in the fact that Guardiola likes his teams to play from the back. An attractive proposition in terms of keeping possession yet when the defensive side of your spine consists of Claudio Bravo, Nicolas Otamendi and John Stones, trouble will brew.

Relinquishing the services of Joe Hart raised eyebrows but no whispers. Fans had belief in their manager, but in hindsight, this was a mistake. Bravo was brought in due to his ability to play from the back but he has been unable to translate his skills from the Camp Nou to the Etihad.

John Stones’s tendency to also play out from the back regardless of the dangers that lurk often leave fans’ hearts in their throats and Nicolas Otamendi is too often drawn in by the opposition to leave gaps in the defensive line.

These lapses come to the fore against lightning quick teams such as Leicester and Chelsea who were able to turn Manchester City’s defence over time and again to leave the pitch with a well-deserved three points, come the final whistle.

Manchester City though appear to off put their slump to bed. An inspiring win against Barcelona somewhat restored their confidence as the grey clouds above the Etihad figuratively parted. Guardiola has found his groove again as they build up an assault on Chelsea’s title aspirations with positive displays and strong attacking intent.

Their second-leg loss to Monaco aside, all seems well on the blue side of Manchester once more.

Pep Guardiola’s side certainly have one of the most difficult fixture lists in the fact they must still play Manchester United and Chelsea but barring another breakdown of even larger proportions, compared to earlier in the season, they should quite comfortably find themselves playing Champions League football once more.

Chances of a top four finish - 8/10

Manchester United

Their upcoming fixtures are arguably the most daunting of any of the sides in contention of a top four position

Jose Mourinho has never been one to settle. He leaves success in his wake with an abundance of silverware before his relationship with the club comes to a toxic end, usually during his third season in charge. It certainly seemed as if the ‘third season syndrome’ had arrived two years ahead of schedule as the dust began to settle during his introduction to life and Manchester United’s manager.

After a modestly bright start to proceedings, Manchester United suffered an alarming dip in form, the result of a two-one loss to Manchester City. United only won three of their next eleven games as Mourinho threw excuses at every corner of the pitch.

He stated they had been unlucky to draw so many matches which they deserved to win. Their opponents stood toe-to-toe with them and as good as some of the defensive displays were from teams such as Burnley and Hull, United undeniably lacked an attacking spark.

Too often has the thirty-five-year-old Zlatan Ibrahimovic carried the goalscoring threat on his shoulders and this is something that is yet to change. The problem here is that Ibrahimovic can not win every game for them.

There have been points where goal droughts have occurred or he has been suspended, as he is now. More often than not United end up winning by the slightest of margins or only succeeded at accomplishing bore-draws such as their most recent result against West Bromwich Albion.

Due to this, they find themselves hovering outside of the top four and with an ever-dwindling amount of games left to recover.

Summer acquisitions have also been a mixed bag. Eric Bailly has been an inspired signing as he solidifies his place amongst the back-four. Less so has been Paul Pogba who at first appeared more interested in his global branding that his football.

Yet as the season progressed, his once lifeless performances with flickers of talent slowly gave way to ones of promise and intent, mirrored by United’s performances as a whole.

A balance has been instilled between defence and attack via the vision of Michael Carrick and the natural tenacity of Ander Herrera to take a hold of the game by the scruff of its neck. Unsung heroes such as themselves, Antonio Valencia and others have shown the admirable industry that Jose Mourinho’s teams are known for.

Manchester United have now remained unbeaten in their last nineteen Premier League matches with their last defeat coming against leaders Chelsea back in October and have already acquired the EFL cup this season.

They have a plausible chance of winning the Europe League since Tottenham have departed and though they may have lost out on the chance to retain the FA Cup due to another loss against Chelsea, there is still hope they can reach the Champions League next season without the help of winning the Europa League.

Their upcoming fixtures are arguably the most daunting of any of the sides in contention of a top four position. Still to play are Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal and they were only able to win one of these respected games first time round.

Though Mourinho’s teams rarely lack self-belief and they will pounce on any sense of weakness shown from the teams above. It would certainly be naive to dismiss them quite yet.

Chances of a top four finish - 7/10

Arsenal

Even at the darkest of times there are rays of hope in Arsenal’s progress

‘New season, same old Arsenal.’ It’s an adage almost as old as time. Always so close, yet never quite there. The London-based team seem to be finding it harder with each passing season to break away from the disappointing repetition they suffer. It’s the true definition of insanity.

It’s the usual suspects that come back to haunt Arsene Wenger and his men as they push for the title, only to fall away and settle for a top-four position. Yet this season it appears that even this may be a stretch too far for them.

A recurring theme for Arsenal’s title run is that they start the season strongly, building a head of steam before their annual dip in quality at the turn of the year. They're usually able to overcome such trepidations but it is always too late to be able to actually win the Premier League.

The mentality and confidence of their players often dampens their belief, leaving them short of the optimism that teams such as Chelsea possess. Once they have lost they don’t appear to be able to pick themselves back up and dust off their failures.

Loss acts as a disease that takes time to heal, often spreading throughout the players and fans alike before they are finally able to rid themselves of it. This coupled with the fact that no-one but Arsene Wenger currently knows if he will be in charge of Arsenal next season will only hinder the players’ recovery process and that sense of uncertainty does not help them as they wonder upon their own futures at the club.

This isn’t helped by their unfortunate injury woes. Players such as Danny Welbeck and Aaron Ramsey often seem to miss more games than they play as niggling problem exacerbate themselves into month long injuries. Furthermore, the loss of vital members for the remainder of the season such as Santi Cazorla can only bring more misery upon them.

Though even at the darkest of times there are rays of hope in Arsenal’s progress. Recent additions to the squad have been made to add a sense of steel to their ranks. Shkodran Mustafi has excelled at the back for Arsenal this season and though he is not immune from occasional lapses, he will only improve with time.

The same can be said of Granit Xhaka whose aggressive style of play is uncharacteristic of the Arsenal we have seen for a number of years, but all the better for it. With the creative genius of Mesut Ozil and the relentless Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal have nearly all the ingredients to return to their past glories.

It is now down to Arsenal to deliberate on who can best serve the team as their manager. Be that Arsene Wenger himself or someone else, they should soon find themselves back amongst title contention.

Chances of a top four finish - 6/10

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