Brewers vs. Mets: Game 1 prediction, lineup, odds, injuries, and picks - July 2, 2025

After Tuesday night’s series opener was washed out by rain at Citi Field, the Brewers and Mets finally get their three-game set underway tonight.

It’s a top-tier pitching matchup on tap as Milwaukee sends ace Freddy Peralta to the mound against New York’s reliable Clay Holmes.

The Brewers are chasing ground in the NL Central, while the Mets look to snap a skid and protect home turf in what’s now a fresh-opening Game 1 clash.

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Brewers vs. Mets Pitcher & Hitter Matchups

Starting Pitchers

Freddy Peralta (Brewers) has been in command all season, posting an 8-4 record with a sharp 2.90 ERA, 98 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP across 93 innings.

Clay Holmes (Mets) has successfully transitioned from the bullpen to the Mets’ starting rotation, putting up an 8-4 record with a 2.97 ERA in 16 starts this year. Known for his heavy sinker and elite ground-ball rate, keeping hitters in check with a modest 1.11 WHIP.

Hot Hitters

Brewers:

Sal Frelick (RF): Frelick is pacing the Brewers with a robust .300/.359/.401 slash line through 81 games, contributing 5 homers, 34 RBIs and 15 stolen bases, showcasing his blend of contact, speed, and run production.

Christian Yelich (LF/DH): A veteran force, Yelich has slammed 16 home runs and driven in 60 runs with a .262/.337/.457 batting line. His .794 OPS ranks among the team’s best, providing consistent middle-of-the-order pop.

Mets:

Juan Soto (RF): Soto has erupted in June, hitting 20 homers, walking 63 times and carrying a .901 OPS. His ability to get on base and drive the ball to all fields makes him a constant threat in the heart of New York’s lineup.

Pete Alonso (1B): The Mets’ biggest run producer, Alonso is batting .291 with 65 RBIs and 19 homers so far in 2025. Known for his raw power and knack for clutch hits, Alonso anchors the middle of the order and remains one of the toughest outs in the National League.

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Projected Lineups

Milwaukee Brewers (Home Team):

• SP Freddy Peralta (R) - 8-4, 2.90 ERA
• RF Sal Frelick (L)
• CF J. Chourio (R)
• DH Christian Yelich (L)
• C Willy Contreras (R)
• 2B Brice Turang (L)
• 1B Rhys Hoskins (R)
• LF Isaac Collins (S)
• 3B Caleb Durbin (R)
• SS Joey Ortiz (R)

New York Mets (Away Team):

• SP Clay Holmes (R) - 8-4, 2.97 ERA
• SS Francisco Lindor (S)
• LF Brandon Nimmo (L)
• RF Juan Soto (L)
• 1B Pete Alonso (R)
• CF Jeff McNeil (L)
• DH Mark Vientos (R)
• 3B Brett Baty (L)
• C Luis Torrens (R)
• 2B Ronald Mauricio (S)

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Injury Report:

Milwaukee Brewers

• Blake Perkins (CF) – right shin fracture; 60-day IL, expected return July 3
• Brandon Woodruff (SP) – shoulder surgery; 60-day IL, possibly back by early July
• Rob Zastryzny (RP) – ribs; 15-day IL, roughly mid-July return
• Nestor Cortes (SP) – elbow flexor strain; 60-day IL, late July return

New York Mets

• Oliver Ortega (RP) – IL as of July 4 (7-day)
• Rafael Ortega (CF) – IL through July 5 (7-day)
• Sean Manaea (SP) – oblique injury; 60-day IL, possible return July 6
• Jesse Winker (LF/DH) – oblique strain; 60-day IL

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Current Odds:

• Brewers Runline (+1.5): −194
• Mets Runline (–1.5): +158
• Total – Over 8: −112
• Total – Under 8: −108
• Brewers Moneyline: +112
• Mets Moneyline: −137

Best Bets & Prediction

Final Score Prediction: Brewers 4, Mets 2

Top Plays:

• Brewers +1.5 Runline (–194) - Peralta dominates early, Mets' offense remains cold, covering for a possible one-run loss.
• Under 8 Runs (−108) - Two aces on the mound, both suppressing traffic, aligns with the recent under trend.
• Freddy Peralta 6+ Strikeouts - He’s hit this mark in five of his last six starts. High K probability vs. Mets (who struck out ~8.8 times per game recently).

Value Parlay: Brewers +1.5 & Under 8 - safer hedge with combined upside.