Diamondbacks vs. Phillies: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

A pair of teams with identical records will square off in the series opener from Citizens Bank Park on Friday when the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies cross paths for the first time this season. The Snakes took three-of-four from the Phillies last season with four of the matchups playing to low scorers.

A sneaky pitcher's duel could play out in the opener with Arizona sending Merrill Kelly to the mound to oppose left-hander Jesus Luzardo who's gotten out to a tremendous start for his new team.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies recent form and records

Arizona

After dropping back-to-back series against the Rays and Braves at home, the Diamondbacks bounced back by taking two-of-three from the Mets. The series win moved Arizona to 17-14 overall which finds them four-games out in the NL West pennant chase.

Torey Lovullo's crew has delivered a $109 overall return for MLB bettors, with a majority of it coming on the road, where they've won nine of 15 games and banked $239.

Philadelphia

The Phillies would've negated a five-game losing streak with a five-game winning streak on Thursday, but failed to bust out the brooms in the series finale with the Nationals. The loss dropped Rob Thomson's troops to 17-14 overall which finds them 3.5-games in back of the NL West leading Mets.

Though three-game over .500, Philadelphia is $235 in the red for their backers largely due to a poor 6-9 road record. However, with 11 wins in 16 home games, they've generated $137 in profit for their backers.

Injuries

Arizona

Ketel Marte 2B 10 Day IL - Hamstring
A.J. Puk RP 15 Day IL - Elbow
Justin Martinez RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Kendall Graveman RP 15 Day IL - Back
Jordan Montgomery SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Blake Walston SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Philadelphia

Brandon Marsh CF 10 Day IL - Hamstring
Ranger Suarez SP 15 Day IL - Back

Starting Pitchers

Merrill Kelly (3-1, 4.41 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 24 hits (5 HR) & 16 ER with a 25:12 K/BB ratio in six 2025 starts.
Tossed 6.0 IP of 4 hit (2 HR) & 2 ER ball with a 4:1 K/BB ratio vs. Atlanta last start.
2-1 with a 2.92 ERA & 18:7 K/BB ratio in 24.2 career IP thrown vs. the Phillies.
1-1 with a 6.46 ERA and 16:5 K/BB ratio in 15.1 IP on the road in 2025

Jesus Luzardo (3-0, 1.73 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 29 hits (1 HR) & 7 ER with a 41:10 K/BB ratio in six 2025 starts.
Tossed 6.0 IP of 3 hit (0 HR) and 0 ER ball with a 5:3 K/BB ratio at Chicago Cubs last start.
2-1 with a 5.09 ERA & 19:10 K/BB ratio in 17.2 career IP thrown vs. the D'backs.
1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 19:4 K/BB ratio in 19.1 IP at home in 2025.

Must-Watch Hitters

Arizona

The Diamondbacks sport one of the best offenses in the league with it averaging 5.19 runs per game and hitting 42 overall home runs. The lineup has however had some issues with left-handed pitching over the last two weeks, slashing .232/.277/.337/.614 with a putrid 70 wRC+.

That however hasn't been the case for Geraldo Perdomo who's collected 13 hits and seven RBIs with zero strikeouts in 34 at-bats against southpaws. The infielder has hit safely in five straight games, making him a worthy target in the player prop markets.

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Philadelphia

The Phillies sport a number of bats that appear to be juicy player prop targets in this matchup with Merrill Kelly. The righty has nearly logged 25 innings against them, so the choices are abundant.

It's wise to hitch your wagon to Trea Turner in this spot, given his current form and familiarity with Arizona's starter. He's 11-for-28 lifetime with four extra-base hits, five walks, and just four strikeouts in 33 plate appearances. His total bases prop currently offers an attractive plus-money return.

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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies MLB 2025 Betting Odds

Friday 5/2	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
Arizona Diamondbacks	+130	+1.5 -155	O 9 -105
Philadelphia Phillies	-155	-1.5 +130	U 9 -115

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies expert picks and game prediction

Attack this matchup between the Diamondbacks and Phillies from a first five innings perspective at DraftKings Sportsbook. Both starters will have something to prove, but their poor bullpens are a concern for any involvement with the full game side or total. So, take it out of the equation and look for both Kelly and Luzardo to keep the scoring held in check early on.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Prediction: Arizona Wins 3-2

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose