Mets vs. Giants: Game 1 prediction, lineup, odds, injuries and betting picks - July 25, 2025

The San Francisco Giants return to Oracle Park for a series-opening game of critical importance against the New York Mets on Friday. The Giants were riding high after making a statement in taking the win over Atlanta on the two-homer burst by Rafael Devers. They now look to continue the roll against a Mets team that has flown under the radar with consistent offense and stable pitching.

Logan Webb takes the mound for the Giants, hoping to turn things around after a disastrous opener. Clay Holmes maintains his strong transition into a legitimate starting role for New York. As both clubs are heavily invested in the playoff race, this series opener is significant in the NL postseason landscape.

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Starting Pitchers

Clay Holmes (RHP, Mets)

With an 8-5 record and 3.48 ERA over 108.2 IP, Clay Holmes thrives on ground balls and weak contact. The Mets keep him in the rotation despite rising innings, showing trust in his sinker-heavy arsenal. He may not blow hitters away, but he knows how to keep lineups quiet.

Logan Webb (RHP, Giants)

Logan Webb enters with a strong 3.08 ERA and nine wins across 131.1 innings, backed by 140 strikeouts and sharp command. Despite a rocky outing against Toronto (11 hits, four ER), he’s been the Giants’ anchor, relying on movement and pitch sequencing over pure velocity. Look for a bounce-back effort at home where he’s historically tougher to beat.

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Hot Hitters

Francisco Lindor (Mets)

Francisco Lindor continues to provide spark atop the Mets’ lineup, slashing .248 with 19 homers, 57 RBIs, 65 runs and 16 stolen bases. On Wednesday, he went 2-for-4 with a pair of RBIs, showcasing his ability to impact the game in multiple ways. His recent consistency at the plate could prove pivotal against Webb’s finesse-heavy arsenal.

Rafael Devers (Giants)

Rafael Devers is heating up at the right time for San Francisco. With a .264 average, 19 home runs and 73 RBIs, he’s been the Giants’ most dangerous bat. His two-homer, four-RBI explosion against Atlanta on Wednesday highlights his current rhythm. He’s seeing the ball well and attacking early in counts, making him a real threat to Holmes in this series opener.

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Probable Lineup

Mets (Away Team):

• LF Brandon Nimmo (L)
• SS Francisco Lindor (S)
• RF Juan Soto (L)
• 1B Pete Alonso (R)
• CF Jeff McNeil (L)
• DH Mark Vientos (R)
• 2B Brett Baty (L)
• C Francisco Alvarez (R)
• 3B Robinson Mauricio (S)
• SP: Clay Holmes (R) 8-5, 3.48 ERA

Giants (Home Team):

• CF Jung Hoo Lee (L)
• LF Heliot Ramos (R)
• DH Rafael Devers (L)
• SS Willy Adames (R)
• 3B Matt Chapman (R)
• RF Michael Yastrzemski (L)
• 1B Wilmer Flores (R)
• 2B Christian Schmitt (R)
• C Patrick Bailey (S)
• SP: Logan Webb (R) 9-7, 3.08 ERA

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Injury Report

New York Mets:

• Rafael Ortega (CF) – On the 7-Day IL, likely to return today.
• Yacksel Rios (RP) – 60-Day IL; sidelined until late July.
• Paul Blackburn (SP) – 15-Day IL; expected back July 28.
• Jose Siri (CF) – 60-Day IL; targeting early August.
• Oliver Ortega (RP) – On IL until early August.

San Francisco Giants:

• Matt Chapman (3B) – Day-to-day, possible return today.
• Jerar Encarnacion (RF) – 10-Day IL; potential activation on July 25.
• Cole Waites (RP) – On IL; eligible to return July 26.
• Christian Koss (2B) – 10-Day IL; expected back late July.
• Tom Murphy (C) – 60-Day IL; out through mid‑August.

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Current Odds

• Moneyline: Mets +118 / Giants -144
• Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-187) / Giants -1.5 (+153)
• Total Over/Under: 7.5 Over -103 / Under -118

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Prediction & Best Bets

Final Score Prediction: Mets 4, Giants 3

Best Bets:

1. Mets Moneyline (+118): Given the close matchup and the Mets’ recent form, they offer value as underdogs.
2. Under 7.5 Total Runs (-118): Both pitchers have been effective, suggesting a lower-scoring game.
3. Mets +1.5 Run Line (-187): Even if the Mets don’t win outright, they should keep the game close.