Mets vs Red Sox: Game 3 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks

The Boston Red Sox snapped a two-series skid Tuesday with a 2-0 shutout of the struggling New York Mets. They'll look to secure their second sweep of the year Wednesday as the interleague series wraps up at historic Fenway Park.

Alex Cora will trot Garrett Crochet to the mound as the lefty looks to secure his fifth win. Carlos Mendoza will counter with Tylor Megill, who's delivered some competitive outings for New York while several starters remain on the IL.

Mets vs. Red Sox recent form and records

New York

The Mets went into the "Subway Series" winners of three straight series against the Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Pirates. They've now dropped two straight, including two of three games in the Bronx before coming up short in the first two of this interleague set with the Red Sox.

At 29-20 overall, New York sits 1.5 games behind the NL East-leading Phillies. More concerning for MLB bettors, however, is the team's poor road form, which has resulted in a $514 loss away from Citi Field.

Boston

A run-in with the reeling Mets was just what the doctor ordered for the Red Sox, who had been slumping heading into Monday's series opener. Boston had dropped successive series to the Braves and Tigers, managing just one win in six games.

Having already secured the series with two wins over New York, Boston is back to .500 at 25-25. The Red Sox sit 4.5 games behind the AL East-leading Yankees and are down $387 overall for their supporters. At home, however, they've gone 14-11, resulting in a $17 deficit.

Injuries

New York

Jesse Winker LF 10 Day IL - Side
Jose Siri CF 10 Day IL - Shin
Paul Blackburn SP 15 Day IL - Knee
Danny Young RP 60 Day IL - Elbow
A.J. Minter RP 60 Day IL - Lat
Frankie Montas Jr. SP 60 Day IL - Lat
Brooks Raley RP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Sean Manaea SP 60 Day IL - Oblique
Christian Scott SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Nick Madrigal 3B 60 Day IL - Shoulder
Drew Smith RP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Boston

Masataka Yoshida LF 10 Day IL - Shoulder
Romy Gonzalez 1B 10 Day IL - Back
Triston Casas 1B 10 Day IL - Knee
Tanner Houck SP 15 Day IL - Flexor
Richard Fitts SP 15 Day IL - Pectoral
Zach Penrod SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Chris Murphy RP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Kutter Crawford SP 60 Day IL - Knee
Patrick Sandoval SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Tylor Megill (3-4, 3.74 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 38 hits (3 HR) & 18 ER with a 56:22 K/BB ratio in nine 2025 starts.
Worked 2.02IP of 4 hit (0 HR) 4 ER ball with 4:5 K/BB ratio at Yankees last start.
0-0 with a 6.75 ERA & 3:1 K/BB ratio in 4.0 career IP thrown vs. the Red Sox.
1-2 with a 5.25 ERA and 28:10 K/BB ratio in 24.0 IP on the road in 2025.

Garrett Crochet (4-3, 2.00 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 46 hits (5 HR) & 14 ER with a 73:21 K/BB ratio in 10 2025 appearances.
Worked 7.0 IP of 7 hit (2 HR) 2 ER ball with 8:0 K/BB ratio vs. Braves last start.
0-1 with a 2.70 ERA & 8:0 K/BB ratio in 3.1 career IP thrown vs. Mets.
0-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 35:13 K/BB ratio in 28.2 IP at home in 2025.

Must-Watch Hitters

New York

There's a limited sample size of batter vs. pitcher data to utilize for the Mets' task of solving Garrett Crochet. The left-hander has been hard on both platoon splits, with righties batting .208 and lefties .156.

It's been a minute since Juan Soto was heard from a fantasy or player props perspective. He hasn't left the yard since early May and has only hit safely in half of the team's last six games. If New York is to avoid having the brooms busted out upon it, one of its big boppers must step up. Look for him to put on a show and quiet his critics this evening.

Boston

Tylor Megill has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard, evidenced by only three home runs being served up over 43.1 total innings of work. Not a single Red Sox batter on the current roster has taken him deep.

Megill has also been extremely tough on lefty bats, holding them to a .182 average and .538 OPS. So for tonight, look the way of Alex Bregman, who has been the glue holding this injury ravaged team together at the dish.

Mets vs. Mets MLB 2025 Betting Odds

Wednesday 5/21	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
New York Mets	+124	+1.5 -170	O 8 -105
Boston Red Sox	-148	-1.5 +142	U 8 -115

Mets vs. Red Sox expert picks and game prediction

It's high time the Mets put up or shut up. The engine has been leaking oil over the course of this road trip, with the offense mustering just eight runs over five games. While it's been rough lately, New York owns a .760 OPS and 120 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days. Look for them to compete in the finale, making them a worthwhile investment at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mets vs. Red Sox Prediction: New York Wins 5-4

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose