Nationals vs. Astros: Game 1 prediction, lineup, odds, injuries, and picks - July 28, 2025

The Houston Astros look to snap a five-game home losing streak as they host the Washington Nationals on Monday. The Astros possess a solid 33-23 home mark but have faltered recently, posting a 4-6 record over their last 10 games with a higher 4.89 ERA.

The Nationals, meanwhile, enter with a 43-62 season record and 22-31 on the road, splitting a lowly 5-5 mark in their last 10 games. Neither team has faced each other this season, opening the door to a fresh confrontation.

Star players such as Jose Altuve (.280, 17 HRs) will attempt to fuel the Astros' offense, and Washington's James Wood (24 HRs, .263) will attempt to keep the Nationals competitive. Both organizations will attempt to get rolling as the regular season approaches its decisive stretch.

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Pitcher Matchup

Brad Lord (Nationals):

The young right-hander is 2–5 with a good 3.39 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 69 innings. He may lack power, but Lord has demonstrated confidence in pressure situations and stays out of trouble with strong command and softly hit balls.

Framber Valdez (Astros):

Valdez enters 11–4 with a sharp 2.67 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 128 innings. He shut down Arizona last time, allowing one run over seven frames. With the best ground-ball rates and seasoned control, Valdez is the comfortable selection in this battle.

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Hot Hitters

CJ Abrams (Nationals):

Abrams has been a spark atop Washington's order, hitting .275 with 14 home runs and 23 stolen bases. His developing power and speed-pressure make him dangerous against lefties like Valdez, especially if he can get on early.

Jose Altuve (Astros):

Altuve is a stalwart for Houston, batting .280 with 17 home runs and 53 RBIs. He has been swinging the bat very well recently and continues to deliver in big spots, particularly against right-handed pitchers.

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Probable Lineup

Nationals (Away Team):

• SS CJ Abrams (L)
• RF Alex Call (R)
• LF James Wood (L)
• DH Josh Bell (S)
• 1B Nathaniel Lowe (L)
• 3B Brady House (R)
• 2B Luis Garcia (L)
• C Riley Adams (R)
• CF Jacob Young (R)
• SP: Brad Lord (R) 2-5, 3.39 ERA

Astros (Home Team):

• CF Taylor Trammell (L)
• LF Jose Altuve (R)
• DH Victor Caratini (S)
• 1B Christian Walker (R)
• C Yainer Diaz (R)
• RF Cam Smith (R)
• 3B Mauricio Dubon (R)
• 2B Brice Matthews (R)
• SS Zack Short (R)
• SP: Framber Valdez (L) 11-4, 2.67 ERA

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Injury Report:

Nationals Injuries

• Dylan Crews (OF): 60-day IL, oblique strain
• Trevor Williams (SP): 60-day IL, elbow sprain
• DJ Herz (SP): Tommy John surgery, out for the season
• Josiah Gray (SP): Elbow injury, likely returns in September

Astros Injuries

• Jeremy Pena (SS): Fractured rib, nearing return
• Yordan Alvarez (DH): Hand injury, no return date yet
• Isaac Paredes (3B): Hamstring strain, out for weeks
• Jake Meyers (CF): Calf strain, 3+ weeks out
• Lance McCullers Jr. (SP): Finger blister, 15-day IL
• Brendan Rodgers (2B): Multiple injuries, 60-day IL
• Cristian Javier (SP): Tommy John recovery, returns early August
• J.P. France (SP): Shoulder rehab, returning soon
• Luis Garcia (SP): Elbow injury, early August return
• Brandon Walter (SP): Elbow inflammation, 15-day IL

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Current Odds

• Moneyline: Astros –267, Nationals +212
• Run Line: Astros –1.5 (–121), Nationals +1.5 (–101)
• Total: Over 7.5 (–106), Under 7.5 (–115)

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Best Bets & Prediction

Final Score Prediction: Astros 5, Nationals 2

Top Bets:

1. Astros Moneyline (–267) – Valdez’s strong season and the Astros’ home-field advantage make them the favorites.
2. Under 7.5 Total Runs (–115) – Valdez’s consistency and the Nationals’ offensive struggles suggest a lower-scoring game.
3. Astros –1.5 Run Line (–121) – With Valdez on the mound, the Astros are likely to cover the spread.