Orioles vs Red Sox: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks

The series opener of an extended series is locked in for Thursday with the Boston Red Sox playing host to the Baltimore Orioles from historic Fenway Park. This will be the second series played between the AL East rivals, with Boston holding a 2-1 lead after going into Baltimore and taking two of three in early April.

Alex Cora will send Lucas Giolito to the mound in hopes of the right-hander bouncing back from another poor outing in his last turn against the Braves. The Orioles will counter with lefty Cade Povich, who has failed to log a quality start in his last three outings.

Orioles vs. Red Sox recent form and records

Baltimore

The Orioles head to Beantown as losers of three straight series, having just put an end to an eight-game losing streak after slugging their way to an 8-4 extra innings win at Milwaukee on Wednesday.

The firing of Brandon Hyde has done little to ignite what's shaping up to be a lost season for the franchise. At 16-32 and sitting in last place in the AL East standings, Baltimore has been a major liability for MLB bettors, costing backers $1,761 overall, with $927 of the deficit coming on the road.

Boston

The Red Sox came up short in their bid to sweep the Mets, managing just one run in Wednesday's 5-1 loss. The defeat dropped Alex Cora's squad to three games under .500 as hosts (11-14).

Boston has also been a liability for bettors, sitting $487 in the red with a 25-26 overall record. It enters this series trailing in the divisional pennant chase by 5.5 games.

Injuries

Baltimore

Ramon Laureano LF Day To Day - Ankle
T. O'Neill RF 10 Day IL - Shoulder
Gary Sanchez C 10 Day IL - Wrist
Jordan Westburg 2B 10 Day IL - Hamstring
Cody Poteet SP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Colton Cowser LF 60 Day IL - Thumb
Albert Suarez RP 60 Day IL - Shoulder
Grayson Rodriguez SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Tyler Wells SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Kyle Bradish SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Boston

Masataka Yoshida LF 10 Day IL - Shoulder
Romy Gonzalez 1B 10 Day IL - Back
Triston Casas 1B 10 Day IL - Knee
Tanner Houck SP 15 Day IL - Flexor
Richard Fitts SP 15 Day IL - Pectoral
Zach Penrod SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Chris Murphy RP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Kutter Crawford SP 60 Day IL - Knee
Patrick Sandoval SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Cade Povich (1-3, 5.23 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 46 hits (8 HR) & 24 ER with a 38:14 K/BB ratio in eight 2025 starts.
Worked 5.2 IP of 3 hit (1 HR) 2 ER ball with 9:2 K/BB ratio vs. Nationals last start.
0-2 with a 5.28 ERA & 19:4 K/BB ratio in 15.1 career IP thrown vs. the Red Sox.
1-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 13:1 K/BB ratio in 18.2 IP on the road in 2025.

Lucas Giolito (1-1, 7.08 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 25 hits (5 HR) & 16 ER with a 17:6 K/BB ratio in four 2025 appearances.
Worked 4.0 IP of 8 hit (3 HR) 6 ER ball with 3:2 K/BB ratio vs. Braves last start.
3-2 with a 5.19 ERA & 25:12 K/BB ratio in 26.0 career IP thrown vs. Orioles.
0-1 with a 14.09 ERA and 5:3 K/BB ratio in 7.2 IP at home in 2025.

Must-Watch Hitters

Baltimore

There's no shortage of options when picking Baltimore hitters, as both sides of the platoon have consistently peppered Lucas Giolito. Righties are batting .300 against him, while lefties clock in at .310.

With that, hitch a wagon to Cedric Mullins, who enters tonight's matchup having hit safely in four straight games with a pair of doubles and home runs. He's 8-for-13 lifetime against Boston's right-hander and looks to be in a great position to extend the streak.

Boston

Right-handed bats have been more lethal against Cade Povich, with the lefty serving up a .403/.356/.520/.876 slash line to that side of the platoon.

Alex Bregman laid an egg last night, going 0-for-4 with all four at-bats resulting in a strikeout. Though just 1-for-5 lifetime against the O's southpaw, Boston's third baseman is batting .364 with a .991 OPS to date, making it very likely he gets back on the right track this evening.

Orioles vs. Red Sox MLB 2025 Betting Odds

Thursday 5/22	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
Baltimore Orioles	+110	+1.5 -192	O 8 -115
Boston Red Sox	-130	-1.5 +160	U 8 -105

Orioles vs. Red Sox expert picks and game prediction

Before diving into this matchup, keep in mind that Mother Nature will play a prominent role; temperatures are expected to be below 50 degrees, with winds blowing in from center field at nearly 20 mph and rain forecast throughout.

Should the game get in, take a shot with the Orioles at the plus-money return and look for some runs to hit the board. Total bettors are getting a huge discount at DraftKings Sportsbook largely due to the weather. Boston's offense has been its best against southpaws, while Baltimore has tagged Giolito in the past.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction: Baltimore wins 6-4

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose