Pirates vs. Mariners: Game 1 prediction, lineup, odds, injuries, and picks - July 4, 2025

The Seattle Mariners occupy the third AL Wild Card spot and are set to host the hottest team in baseball right now, the Pittsburgh Pirates. The three-game series starts Friday and runs through the weekend.

Six wins in a row with sweeps over the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals certainly helped, but a poor season means the 38-50 Pirates remain fifth in the NL Central. That isn't changing anytime soon, as Pittsburgh needs to win another six straight to potentially just get close to the 45-42 Reds in fourth. The Pirates will take it one game at a time, and getting the series win in Washington is the priority.

The 45-42 Mariners, meanwhile, have fallen from grace, once leading the AL West to now 7 games behind the 52-35 Houston Astros. Seattle is, however, unbeaten in its last four series, winning two and splitting two.

Pirates vs. Mariners Game 1: Betting Odds & Weather

Date: Friday, July 4, 2025, 4:10 p.m. ET

Money Line: Mariners (-198)

Over/Under: Under 7.5 runs

Weather: In Domed Stadium, not applicable

Pirates vs. Mariners Game 1: Injuries & Lineups

Injuries

Pirates

• Bryce Miller: 15 Day IL (Elbow),
• Collin Snider: 15 Day IL (Forearm),
• Gregory Santos: 60 Day IL (Knee),
• Ryan Bliss: 60 Day IL (Biceps),
• Victor Robles: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)

Mariners

• Ryan Borucki: 15 Day IL (Back),
• Colin Holderman: 15 Day IL (Thumb),
• Tim Mayza: 60 Day IL (Shoulder),
• Justin Lawrence: 60 Day IL (Elbow),
• Johan Oviedo: 60 Day IL (Elbow),
• Endy Rodriguez: 60 Day IL (Elbow),
• Jared Jones: 60 Day IL (Elbow),
• Enmanuel Valdez: 60 Day IL (Shoulder)

Expected Lineups

Pirates

1. 1B S. Horwitz [L]
2. DH A. McCutchen [R]
3. RF B. Reynolds [S]
4. 2B N. Gonzales [R]
5. CF Oneil Cruz [L]
6. 3B K. Hayes [R]
7. LF Tommy Pham [R]
8. C Joey Bart [R]
9. SS I. Kiner-Falefa [R]

Mariners

1. SS J. Crawford [L]
2. CF J. Rodriguez [R]
3. DH Cal Raleigh [S]
4. 2B J. Polanco [S]
5. LF R. Arozarena [R]
6. C Mitch Garver [R]
7. 1B D. Solano [R]
8. RF Dylan Moore [R]
9. 3B B. Williamson [R]

Pirates vs. Mariners: Prediction and Picks

The battle of the starters is expected to be an exciting one with Pirates' Bailey Falter (6-3, 3.62 ERA) facing Mariners' ace Bryan Woo (7-4, 2.75 ERA). On paper Woo gives the home team an edge. Collectively, the Pirates' pitching has an ERA of 2.25 in the last 10 games, but that's not what has led to the breakout form.

Their batting average has risen to .307, with Bryan Reynolds leading the charge with 6 doubles and 2 home runs during that stretch, alongside lineup leader Oneil Cruz. Meanwhile, Randy Arozarena has a hot 10-game streak with 9 RBIs, while Cal Raleigh has a team-high .631 SLG.

It feels like the Pirates' form, while impressive, won't last, and the trip to Seattle will likely be the place their winning streak ends.

Picks: Mariners (-198)

Prediction: Mariners 4, Pirates 3