Rangers vs. Mariners: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - July 31, 2025

The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers enter Thursday night’s opener at T-Mobile Park locked in a tie for second place in the AL West, both sitting at 57-52. The Mariners have dominated the head-to-head matchup so far this season with a 7-2 record against Texas, thanks to their strong home pitching and clutch power from Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez.

The Rangers, however, are trending upward, having won seven of their last 10 behind a resurgent offense and solid bullpen work. With George Kirby and Kumar Rocker on the mound, Game 1 sets the tone for what could be a pivotal series in the playoff race.

---

Starting Pitchers

Kumar Rocker (Rangers - RHP)

Kumar Rocker’s raw talent is clear, but consistency still isn’t. He allowed three runs in four innings against Atlanta last time out and sits at 4-4 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Walks and pitch efficiency remain issues, and Seattle’s patient hitters could make him work early.

George Kirby (Mariners - RHP)

George Kirby bounced back strongly last week, striking out nine over six sharp innings against the Angels. Now 5-5 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, the righty’s command and strike-throwing remain strengths. If he keeps attacking the zone like he did Saturday, he’s got the tools to neutralize a streaky Rangers lineup.

---

Hot Hitters to Watch

Corey Seager - Rangers

Corey Seager remains a key bat in the Rangers’ order, batting .269 with 15 homers and 38 RBIs on the year. Though his power numbers have dipped slightly, his left-handed swing still poses a major threat, especially against righties like George Kirby.

Eugenio Suarez - Mariners

Eugenio Suarez is crushing the ball in 2025, slugging 36 home runs with 87 RBIs while batting .248. He was the Diamondbacks’ biggest power source and a game-changer in the middle of the lineup, particularly when he got ahead in the count.

Now back in Seattle, where he played in 2022 and 2023, he'll try to keep up his power hitting.

---

Injury Report

Texas Rangers:

• Corey Seager (thumb) – 10-day IL.
• Josh Jung (wrist) – 60-day IL.
• Jacob deGrom (elbow) – Recovering from Tommy John surgery, likely out for the season.
• Tyler Mahle (elbow) – Also rehabbing from TJ surgery, not expected back soon.
• Nathaniel Lowe (knee) – Day-to-day.

Seattle Mariners:

• J.P. Crawford (hamstring) – Day-to-day.
• Ty France (foot) – 10-day IL.
• Bryce Miller (neck) – On the IL.
• Sam Haggerty (shoulder) – Out indefinitely.

---

Current Odds

Run Line:

• Rangers +1.5 (−157)
• Mariners −1.5 (+129)

Total:

• Over 7.5 (−111)
• Under 7.5 (−109)

Moneyline:

• Rangers +144
• Mariners −176

---

Final Score Prediction and Best Bets

Final Score Prediction: Mariners 5, Rangers 2

Best Bets:

1. Under 7.5 Total Runs (−109) - With Kirby’s elite control and Rocker’s improving command, this has the makings of a tight, low-scoring game.
2. Mariners Moneyline (−176) - Seattle has won 6 of George Kirby’s last 8 starts, and the Rangers’ offense has cooled off against righties.

Value Parlay: Mariners ML + Under 7.5 - captures both home pitching edge and low-scoring expectation.