Red Sox vs. Blue Jays: Game 3, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The Toronto Blue Jays rallied to even the series against the Boston Red Sox last night, earning a win for only the second time in their last 10 games. Tonight, they'll aim for their first series win since taking two of three from the Braves in mid-April.

Jose Berrios will make his seventh start, looking to tame Boston's bats, while Tanner Houck takes the mound for the Red Sox, aiming to turn his train wreck of a season around.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays recent form and records

Boston

The Red Sox imploded in the middle innings of last night's game after getting out to a commanding 6-0 lead. The bullpen allowed Toronto to send the game to extras, where the team lost for the 15th time and saw its three-game win streak go up in smoke.

While owners of a +.500 record, it's resulted in a $144 deficit for $100-per-bet MLB bettors. Boston has split its 18 overall games on the road (-$88).

Toronto

The Blue Jays snapped their three-game losing streak last night to claw to within two games of being a .500 team (14-16). The win moved John Schneider's crew to 9-6 as a host, with the record amounting to a $169 return on investment for their backers.

Toronto currently sits 3.5 games out of first place in the AL East, which finds them +950 dogs to come back and win it at DK.

Injuries

Boston

Connor Wong C 10 Day IL - Hand
Masataka Yoshida LF 10 Day IL - Shoulder
Richard Fitts SP 15 Day IL - Pectoral
Kutter Crawford SP 15 Day IL - Knee
Chris Murphy RP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Zach Penrod SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Patrick Sandoval SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Toronto

Nick Sandlin RP 15 Day IL - Back
Max Scherzer SP 15 Day IL - Lat
Erik Swanson RP 15 Day IL - Hand
Alek Manoah SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Ryan Burr RP 60 Day IL - Shoulder
Angel Bastardo SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Tanner Houck (0-2, 7.58 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 38 hits (6 HR) & 25 ER with a 24:12 K/BB ratio in six 2025 starts.
Tossed 5.0 IP of 8 hit (0 HR) & 4 ER ball with 6:1 K/BB ratio vs. Cleveland last start.
1-1 with a 3.09 ERA & 37:14 K/BB ratio in 43.2 career IP thrown vs. the Blue Jays.
0-2 with a 11.65 ERA and 15:8 K/BB ratio in 17.0 IP on the road in 2025

Jose Berrios (1-1, 4.24 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 33 hits (6 HR) & 16 ER with a 28:15 K/BB ratio in six 2025 starts.
Tossed 5.1 IP of 5 hit (0 HR) and 0 ER ball with 4:2 K/BB ratio at NY Yankees last start.
5-6 with a 3.66 ERA & 96:22 K/BB ratio in 98.1 career IP thrown vs. the Red Sox.
0-1 with a 5.94 ERA and 16:9 K/BB ratio in 16.2 IP at home in 2025.

Must-Watch Hitters

Boston

Going strictly by batter versus pitcher data, you'll want to take a hard look at Jarren Duran in tonight's showdown with Jose Berrios. The lefty has owned Toronto's right-hander in the past, collecting hits in half his 19 at-bats, with eight of those knocks going for extra-base hits.

He enters tonight's finale in a groove, having hit safely in four straight games with four extra-base hits and six RBIs.

Toronto

There's plenty of data to analyze between the Blue Jays' bats and Tanner Houck. While several hitters have racked up hits, the damage has been limited.

If backing one tonight, consider Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He's 7-for-20 lifetime against Boston's righty with two doubles, and has collected hits in both games of this series, making his Hits + Runs + RBIs prop worth a look.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Betting Odds

Thursday 5/1	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
Boston Red Sox	-112	-1.5 +150	O 8.5 -115
Toronto Blue Jays	-108	+1.5 -180	U 8.5 -105

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays expert picks and game prediction

As terrible Tanner Houck has been to this point of the season, he's excelled against Toronto throughout his career. One of his best starts of 2025 already came against them. Jose Berrios is due some positive regression within Rogers Centre, where he's the owner of a career 3.50 ERA and .167 batting average against.

With each starting pitcher determined to show out in the finale, look for both offenses to be held in check until the bullpens take over, making the first five innings under the position to stake at DraftKings Sportsbook in the finale.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Toronto Wins 4-3

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose