Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 3 including Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, and more for October 15, 2025

Two-game slate tonight: ALCS Game 4, Mariners vs. Blue Jays, with the series now tied at 2-2, and NLCS Game 3, Dodgers vs. Brewers, where the Dodgers lead 2-0. Yesterday’s slate delivered all three of our picks that went deep, and tonight’s matchups again favor power in specific spots.

We dug into recent form, matchup splits, batted-ball metrics, starter usage, and bullpen carryover to build a matchup-first look at your five names: Teoscar Hernandez, Julio Rodriguez, Dalton Varsho, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Jorge Polanco. Below is the research-backed case for each pick, including key risks and considerations for sizing.

Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.

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Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

#5. - Teoscar Hernandez (+394)

Teoscar Hernandez is once again showing why October baseball suits his swing perfectly. The Dodgers’ slugger crushed a solo homer in Game 2 of the NLCS, continuing his reputation as a reliable postseason power threat.

He is the pure middle-to-late-inning power bat you want in a spot where relievers are likely to be shuffled. With the Dodgers’ lineup length offering him solid protection, he’s likely to see pitches to hit again tonight.

Given his locked-in timing, recent power surge, and the matchup advantage, Hernandez stands out as the top home run prop of the day at +394.

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#4. - Jorge Polanco (+437)

Jorge Polanco (+437) has quietly been Seattle’s postseason difference-maker, delivering clutch power from both sides of the plate.

After a strong 2025 regular season (.265, 26 HR, .821 OPS), he’s carried that form into October, blasting a go-ahead homer in ALCS Game 2 and coming up big in the ALDS finale.

With Toronto’s bullpen taxed after a rough Game 3, Polanco should get hittable pitches, making him a strong value play at +437 as a switch-hitter thriving in pressure spots.

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#3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+388)

Vlad rebounded hugely in Game 3 (4-for-4 with a homer and multiple extra-base hits) and is swinging the bat with elite authority right now.

He punishes mistakes in the middle of the zone, and the Blue Jays’ lineup protection means pitchers often have to nibble early, which leads to hittable counts for sluggers. Given his current form, +388 is fair and buyable when you expect at least one hittable inning.

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#2. Dalton Varsho (+463)

Daulton Varsho has been a legitimate power spark for Toronto all season, and he’s carrying that form into the playoffs, showing the kind of pop-and-contact mix that translates in October.

He exploded in ALDS Game 2, going 4-for-5 with two homers to help push Toronto past the Yankees, and his impact continued in ALCS Game 3, where he went 2-for-4 with a double and two RBI, keeping the Blue Jays’ offense alive in a must-win spot.

A lefty hitter with pull power and improving barrels/hard-hit metrics, Varsho is dangerous when he gets a fastball in the zone or a tired bullpen arm to drive, exactly the situations that make long-shot HR props pay.

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#1. Julio Rodriguez (+415)

Julio Rodriguez has been red-hot this postseason, launching a 414-foot two-run homer in Game 3 and continuing his streak of hard contact and timely hits.

His elite bat speed and 91.8 mph average exit velocity make every mistake pitch dangerous, and with Toronto’s bullpen worn down, Rodriguez remains a prime threat to go deep again tonight at +415.