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Home run props are a different kind of thrill. It's not just a matter of numbers; it's about timing, matchups, ballpark conditions and those rare instances when a hitter gets locked in. And on days like Saturday (May 3), when the wind is blowing in New York and a couple of vulnerable pitchers are on the schedule around the league, you can almost smell the long balls coming.
We've got MVP candidates like Aaron Judge who's crushing baseballs, breakout young bats like Ben Rice finding his groove and power bats like Juan Soto who just reminded Mets fans why he's worth every penny.
Matchups matter, and today's pitchers have some weaknesses that these hitters could exploit. Let's break down the five best home run prop bets for Saturday including current odds, hot streak news and matchup info you won't find on the surface.
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Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.
Top five picks, including Juan Soto, Oneil Cruz, and more for today
#5 Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): +155
Aaron Judge got off to a record start in 2025, topping the league in batting average at .430, with 10 home runs and a 1.298 OPS.
Facing the Tampa Bay Rays' Zack Littell (1-5, 5.03 ERA) today, Judge has a nice matchup against a pitching staff that has struggled to keep right-handed power hitters under wraps. Based on his recent performances and track record, Judge is a good bet to go deep today.
#4 Ben Rice (New York Yankees): +310
Ben Rice has been a revelation for the Yankees in 2025, hitting.265 with eight home runs and a .950 OPS. Replacing the sidelined Giancarlo Stanton, Rice has made good on the challenge, providing power from the left side every game.
Playing at home against Rays pitching, which has shown vulnerability to left-handed hitters, Rice offers a high-reward choice to bettors and is a worthy selection at +310 with the Rays' hurler Zack Littell (1-,5 5.03 ERA) on the mound.
#3 Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros): +265
Yordan Alvarez has had a slow start to the season, slugging only .210 with three home runs. However, his underlying metrics suggest a breakout is imminent, featuring a 94.1 mph average exit speed and 34.6% hard-hit.
Against the Chicago White Sox, Alvarez has a chance to capitalize on a favorable matchup and get back on track.
#2 Juan Soto (New York Mets): +340
Juan Soto has also been coming into form lately, hitting 258 with five homers and a .829 OPS. On Thursday, Soto recorded his first two Citi Field home runs as a Met: two solo homers to left-center field against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
In the last week, he has logged over 1.000 OPS, indicating a return to form. Facing the St. Louis Cardinals, Juan Soto should continue his red-hot bat against a pitching staff that has struggled against left-handed hitters.
#1 Oneil Cruz (Pittsburgh Pirates): +275
Oneil Cruz is under the radar for a breakout year for Pittsburgh, slashing 245/.364/.519 with eight home runs and 17 RBIs.
The 6-foot-7 shortstop is set to face Padres pitcher Randy Vasquez, who has a record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.28. Cruz's 49.3% hard-hit rate and natural power make him a scary choice at +275 in this weak contest.
