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The first Sunday of July brings a juicy MLB slate loaded with strikeout-heavy arms and intriguing matchups for bettors to target. From Garrett Crochet’s electric swing-and-miss heater to Tarik Skubal’s dominance against familiar foes, today’s prop card is stacked with value.
Add in debuts, bounce-back spots and high-leverage duels, and it’s the kind of slate built for strikeout props to shine. Here’s a look at five of the top strikeout picks worth riding for July 6.
Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.
Today's Top MLB Pitchers Strikeouts Prop Bets
#5. Garrett Crochet - Over 7.5 Ks (‑150)
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Garrett Crochet has been flat-out nasty on the mound this season, and his recent strikeout form is turning heads for good reason. With a 2.34 ERA and a sizzling 11.2 K/9, Crochet has struck out 9, 10, 8, 7, 9, 12 and 11 in his last seven outings, an elite stretch.
His ability to pair a high-octane fastball with a devastating slider makes him a nightmare for lineups like the Nationals, who stumble against left-handed strikeout pitchers.
Given how sharp his command’s looked lately, clearing 7.5 strikeouts feels like one of the most bankable plays on the board today.
#4. Tarik Skubal - Over 7.5 Ks (‑135)
If there’s one arm you don’t want to mess with right now, it’s Tarik Skubal. The Tigers’ ace has been dealing flames, rocking a 2.15 ERA and an electric 11.4 K/9 through 109 innings. In his last game, he punched a 13-strikeout gem over seven shutout frames. And it gets better; the last time he faced the Guardians, he straight-up embarrassed them with 9 innings, 13 Ks, just 2 hits and no runs or walks.
Against a Cleveland lineup still allergic to good left-handed pitching, Skubal’s over 7.5 strikeouts feels less like a gamble and more like a formality.
#3. Michael Lorenzen - Over 3.5 Ks (‑155)
Michael Lorenzen might not be dominating headlines, but he’s been stringing together respectable strikeout numbers. With a 7.6 K/9 across 92.2 innings, Lorenzen has cleared 3.5 strikeouts in five straight starts, including outings of 5, 4, 4, 4 and 7 Ks.
His fastball-slider combo can still fool hitters when he’s commanding the zone, this modest 3.5 line feels very reachable. It’s not a flashy pick, but it's one of those smart, steady overs you don’t overthink.
#2. Shinnosuke Ogasawara - Under 4.5 Ks (‑145) (Safest Pick)
Making his long-awaited MLB debut, Shinnosuke Ogasawara steps onto a big-league mound for the first time after working through an oblique injury and logging modest numbers in Triple-A.
While his 9.0 K/9 over 24 innings in the minors is solid, it came with a 4.50 ERA and some shaky command. The Nationals are expected to limit his workload after a recent 4-inning rehab outing, and facing a disciplined Red Sox lineup in his first major league start, expecting five or more strikeouts feels like a stretch.
Given the pitch count concerns and debut nerves, this under shapes up as the safest and most logical play on today’s slate.
#1. Max Fried - Over 5.5 Ks (+110) (Bold Prediction)
Max Fried has quietly been one of the most efficient arms in baseball this season, sitting on a crisp 2.13 ERA and lean 0.94 WHIP through 114 innings. While his strikeout numbers can fluctuate, evident from a recent stretch of 2, 7, 7 and 9 Ks, his swing-and-miss stuff is too good to ignore when he’s locked in.
Facing a Mets lineup that’s been striking out at a steady clip against lefties, Fried’s ability to mix speeds and work both edges of the plate makes him a dangerous matchup.
With plus-money on the over and Fried capable of popping for 7+ punchouts when his curveball’s working, this shapes up as a bold but very live play for today.
