Yankees vs. Blue Jays: Game 1 prediction, lineup, odds, injuries, and betting picks - July 21, 2025

The New York Yankees are in Toronto to face the Blue Jays on Monday, as the AL East rivals battle for valuable ground late in the season. The Blue Jays have a 10-game home winning streak going and possess one of the league's top on-base percentages at .332, and are seeking to maintain their division lead.

The Blue Jays have won five of seven encounters with New York this season. The Yankees, who sport a sturdy 3.90 staff ERA but a mediocre 25-25 mark away from home, will rely on ace lefty Carlos Rodon to contain Toronto's offense. Both clubs enter this game with identical 7-3 records in their last 10 games.

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Starting Pitchers

Carlos Rodon (Yankees)

Carlos Rodon has been on fire lately. In his last start, he threw eight scoreless innings against the Cubs and struck out eight. This season, he’s 10–6 with a 3.08 ERA and a slick 1.00 WHIP. His fastball-slider combo keeps hitters guessing, and he’s especially tough on lefties.

Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays)

Kevin Gausman had some ups and downs this year, sitting at 6–7 with a 4.19 ERA, but he still has the stuff to be dominant. His command has been solid, and while his last game wasn’t great, he’s shown he can get back on track.

Facing a Yankees lineup that’s hot but can be vulnerable to pitchers who mix things up, Gausman has a good chance to settle in and keep Toronto competitive.

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Hot Hitters to Watch

Aaron Judge (Yankees)

Aaron Judge is scorching the ball to a .352 pace with 36 home runs and 82 RBIs this season. He added to that resume Sunday with a towering solo shot against the Braves, marking his sixth homer in the last 10 games. With his elite plate discipline and unmatched power, Judge enters this Blue Jays series as one of the most dangerous hitters.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has delivered consistent production, batting .278 with 13 home runs and 48 RBIs. In the Blue Jays’ last victory over the Giants, he went 2-for-3 with a homer and two RBIs. Guerrero is a pivotal figure in Toronto’s lineup, poised to test the Yankees’ pitching staff at every turn.

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Projected Lineups

New York Yankees (Away Team):

• LF Jasson Dominguez (S)
• RF Aaron Judge (R)
• CF Cody Bellinger (L)
• DH Giancarlo Stanton (R)
• 2B Jazz Chisholm (L)
• 1B Paul Goldschmidt (R)
• C Austin Wells (L)
• SS Anthony Volpe (R)
• 3B Oswald Peraza (R)
• SP: Carlos Rodon (L) - 10-6, 3.08 ERA

Toronto Blue Jays (Home Team):

• 3B Ernie Clement (R)
• RF George Springer (R)
• 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)
• SS Bo Bichette (R)
• DH Alejandro Kirk (R)
• LF Davis Schneider (R)
• 2B Leo Jimenez (R)
• C Tyler Heineman (S)
• CF Myles Straw (R)
• SP: Kevin Gausman (R) - 6-7, 4.19 ERA

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Injury Report

New York Yankees:

• Luis Gil (lat strain) – Rehab assignment at Double-A
• Max Fried (blister) – Day-to-day
• Cam Schlittler (arm soreness) – Day-to-day
• Ryan Yarbrough (oblique strain) – 15-day IL
• Clarke Schmidt (elbow surgery) – Out for the season
• Jake Cousins (elbow surgery) – Out for the season

Toronto Blue Jays:

• Daulton Varsho (hamstring strain) – 10-day IL, started rehab
• Yimi Garcia (ankle/nerve issue) – 15-day IL
• Nick Sandlin (elbow inflammation) – 15-day IL
• Bowden Francis (shoulder impingement) – 15-day IL
• Paxton Schultz (finger inflammation) – 15-day IL
• Alek Manoah (shoulder surgery) – Out for the season

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Current Odds

Run Line:

• Yankees -1.5 (+138)
• Blue Jays +1.5 (−169)

Total:

• Over 8.5 (−113)
• Under 8.5 (−107)

Moneyline:

• Yankees −120
• Blue Jays −101

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Best Bets & Prediction

Final Score Prediction: Yankees 4, Blue Jays 3

Top Bets:

1. Yankees Moneyline (−120) – Carlos Rodon’s pinpoint command and recent stellar outings make New York the favored side to clinch this tight battle.
2. Under 8.5 Total Runs (−107) – Both starters can dominate the strike zone, setting the stage for a low-scoring, pitching-focused duel.

Parlay: Yankees Moneyline + Under 8.5 Runs, this combo leverages Rodon’s matchup advantage and the likely run suppression from two veteran arms.