India vs New Zealand ODI series: 5 biggest factors that will decide the outcome

With the exciting T20I series done and dusted, India’s tour of New Zealand now moves on to its next stage – the one-day international series. Unlike the T20s, there will be just three ODIs between the two teams.

This series gains additional importance due to it being the first encounter between the two sides since the World Cup semi-final which the Kiwis won. This is also the first time the home side would be playing in this format since the World Cup final which remains a very painful memory for them.

So, what can we expect in this contest? The Indian team played a five-match series last year as well in New Zealand and they won it easily 4-1. However, in 2014, they lost a series of similar duration 4-0. So, the visitors have a mixed record playing there.

In these matches, New Zealand would definitely be underdogs due to the absence of their front-line pace attack. Trent Boult, Matt Henry and Lockie Ferguson are all missing due to injuries. Against a formidable Indian line-up, their absence could be fatal for the Kiwis’ chances in this rubber.

Still, there are other factors that will come into play to decide the result of this contest. Here, we look at the five most important.

Form of Taylor and Williamson

Taylor and Williamson are the spine of New Zealand's batting

When New Zealand nearly whitewashed India in the 2014 series, the two leading stars of the contest were Kane Williamson – who got half-centuries in all five matches – and Ross Taylor – who scored hundreds in two of the games. Their performance would again be the biggest factor in deciding whether New Zealand perform well or not.

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Even in the World Cup semi-final, though both these stalwarts weren’t able to score big runs, they notched up important half-centuries. Williamson at no. 3 will control the innings, if he stays in, while Taylor can do a similar job at no. 4 apart from providing the much-needed fireworks late in the innings.

Together, these two players form the spine of the Kiwi batting line-up. Take them out and the team becomes listless. Yes, there are other talented batsmen such as Martin Guptill and Tom Latham, but it’s very rare that their team wins without a substantial contribution from either of the two great men. Stopping them would be Indian bowling attack’s priority.

If Williamson and Taylor both fire, New Zealand can easily get a score of over 300. Despite the weakness of their bowling, that would be a score they will fancy defending.

Form of Indian’s third seamer

Shardul Thakur will have to prove himself while bowling alongside Bumrah and Shami

In the two ODI home series that India played last year after the World Cup, they dearly missed the services of Bhuvneshwar Kumar. On this tour also, while they have Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammad Shami, the third seamer would have to be found from among Navdeep Saini and Shardul Thakur.

This is a weak point in the Indian line-up and New Zealand can capitalize on it. If the third seamer doesn’t get going and leaks runs, the good work of Bumrah and Shami may get undone. Hence, how well Saini or Thakur – whoever gets the go ahead to be in the XI – bowls will be extremely crucial.

The likes of Taylor and Williamson are smart players and they will try to capitalize on this weakness of the Indian team if they get through the early spells of Bumrah and Shami unscathed. So, Kohli will have to use the third seamer in a clever way.

However, this series could also be regarded as a great opportunity for the likes of Saini and Thakur. If they shine, they can book their spots in the team for the upcoming series. Spotlight would certainly be on their efforts.

Santner’s bowling

Mitchell Santner's success will be key to New Zealand's success

One of the main reasons why New Zealand were able to beat India in the World Cup semi-final was the wonderful spell bowled by Mitchell Santner. He completely choked off the runs for India and also picked up a couple of key wickets.

With the Indian batting line-up having aggressive batsmen like Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli who don’t like to let spinners get settled and tend to go after them, it’s going to be an exciting contest. In the World Cup semi-final, the big three of the Indian batting line-up were already out when Santner came into bowl.

If that is not the case in this series, the left-arm spinner will find himself tested more intensely. While he hasn’t been able to cut it as a spinner in the longer format, Santner has emerged in the last few years as a very capable performer in ODIs and performed well against India too in the past.

He relies on subtle variations of pace and length to keep the batsmen quiet. If he can deliver 10 good overs in the middle of the Indian innings, that would be a big booster shot for his team, otherwise they will have problems.

The Rahul experiment

KL Rahul has the opportunity to cement his place as the keeper-batsman in ODIs

Having successfully tried using KL Rahul as the keeper-batsman in the T20Is, India are now certain to use the Karnataka batsman as their wicketkeeper in the ODIs also. Virat Kohli has said as much and Rahul’s success in this role during the ODI series against Australia when Rishabh Pant had to go off the field with an injury has assured him this role.

Now, the spotlight on Rahul would be even greater. Pant continues to be in the squad but is dangerously close to being left out. If Rahul does okay with the bat and doesn’t make any great mistakes behind the stumps, his position as the wicketkeeper batsman would be secured even further.

However if Rahul fails in the first two games with the bat, it would be interesting to see whether Kohli and the Indian team management sticks with him or give another chance to Pant. Then again, if he fails with the gloves (spills a couple of catches or misses stumpings), that too may tempt India to bring Pant back into the XI. This would be an angle that will be closely watched by fans.

Southee’s form

Tim Southee has a great chance to revive his ODI career

In the 2015 World Cup, both Tim Southee and Trent Boult bowled spectacularly and played a key part in the Kiwi team’s progress through to the final. In the 2019 World Cup though, Southee found himself out of the team and his place was taken by Matt Henry.

With both Boult and Henry out of the team, Southee suddenly finds himself back in the ODI scheme of things and as the most experienced bowler. This is a golden opportunity for the tall right-arm seamer. He is up against one of, if not the toughest top-order to bowl to and he can make a big mark by bowling well.

Also, as the senior man in the line-up, he will have to shepherd the likes the Scott Kuggeleijn and Kyle Jamieson. Southee is certain to take the new ball unless Williamson wants to experiment. Hence, he would have to set the rhythm for the entire team as Indian team’s strength lies with the top order.

If Southee can remove batsmen like Kohli or Rohit, that would be a big jolt to the visitors. For Southee, it is a make or break for his international ODI career.