Virat Kohli’s luck with toss could decide India’s fate in the Australia Series

However, lurking under the cricketing discussion is a factor that has little to do with ability, and a whole lot to deal with luck – the luck of toss. Indian captain Virat Kohli has had a torrid time of late at tosses, especially in the Tests overseas.

In the two previous high profile away Test series earlier this year, in South Africa and England, he lost a whopping seven tosses and won just one. Of those eight matches, India could manage to win only two, in one of which Kohli had won the toss and in the second, the opposition captain made a tactical blunder after winning the toss. Both these events happened in the third Test of both South Africa and England series.

One could very well argue that a good team should not depend on the result at the toss to win a match. But there are a lot of times when a match, especially a closely contested one is actually won and lost at the toss. Sometimes, the nature of the pitch also enhances the importance of winning a toss.

For instance, a typical subcontinental pitch that breaks up from the third day itself warrants that the captain winning the toss should bat first. Similarly, a seam and swing-friendly pitch may give an advantage to the side bowling first as their pacers could take advantage of the best conditions for bowling that the pitch is going to offer.

During the South Africa series, Kohli lost the toss in the first two matches and India went on to lose both those matches and thus the series itself. Kohli managed to win the toss in the inconsequential third match, and India duly went on to win the match.

In the England series, Kohli lost all the five tosses. Thanks to his bad luck at the toss, India could not utilize the best conditions, which their opposition did. It is instructive to note that the only test that India managed to win owes in no small measure to a tactical blunder by England captain Joe Root who decided to put India in, after winning the toss. This was akin to Kohli winning the toss!

It is probably no coincidence that a successful captain like Ricky Ponting had a 48% winning record at the toss, whereas for a rather unsuccessful captain like Nasser Hussain, it was a lowly 42%!

Kohli has a terrible record at toss. He has won just about 45% of the tosses, and his luck at the toss has only worsened with time. He would need a bit of helping hand from lady luck in his quest for an elusive Indian victory down under.