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'God!', 'The Little Master', 'The Magician' -- A man named Sachin Ramesh Tendulkar once graced the game of cricket on the 15th of November 1989 and ended with 18426 runs in an ODI career that spanned over a stunning 23 years.
Twenty-three years...
While comparisons across eras aren't ideal, we are here compare the careers of six modern-day giants who are threatening to defy the odds and climb the final frontier.
By examining the course of their carrier - in comparison to Tendulkar's - and taking into account other factors, I will assign a score out of 10 that will rate the likelihood for that player to surpass Tendulkar's record of 18246 runs in ODI's.
In the course of this marathon effort, Tendulkar created a new peak of excellence for the future stars to climb. And for someone to succeed in this treacherous climb, one needs consistency, determination, perseverance, and most importantly, age.
To begin with, it would be handy to view a chart of the runs these players have scored as their career has progressed in comparison to Tendulkar.
A straight-line slope is what you get with Sachin Tendulkar: a career that was marked by unrelenting consistency. This straight line becomes very critical, as it marks the consistency that is demanded of our six candidates as their careers progress ahead. It obviously helped that he made his ODI debut at the jaw-dropping age of 16 when he barely had a speck of age on his face.
Through the article, I will also consider age and fitness as a parameter to predict the longevity of these players. I will obviously be making lots of assumptions regarding when these batsmen plan to hang their boots.
As you may have seen, a star like AB de Villiers took a rather early retirement in comparison to Rangana Herath who left the arena only in his 40s. It is quite unpredictable. So here they are, the nominees for the 'Make the Impossible Possible Award' of Cricket.
#1 Hashim Amla
If there were a giant tsunami and the world around was shaking, there would be one man whose calm would still be in place. The man with the wise beard, Hashim Amla.
Hashim Amla debuted in the year 2008 at the age of 25 and he was 9 years older than Tendulkar as compared to the latter's debut. Today, he is 35 years old with a beard of wisdom and a touch of class.
The South African has undoubtedly been the most unnoticed amongst the group. Silently and efficiently, he kept churning out the runs while the entire world kept going on about the 'Fab 4'. Today, he stands with an admirable 7696 runs from 169 games.
There is something very interesting that stands out in a cumulative career averages chart of his career.
Amla had consistently been better than everyone else for most of his career, his average lurking in the mid to high 50s. In fact, his average never fell below the 50-mark approximately since his 25th game only until recently. Considering these numbers, he has certainly been the most efficient in churning out the runs while he was in the spotlight.
However, one has to be realistic. With only five years to go (at the maximum) and him playing 16.5 matches each year on an average calculated from the last 4 years, he would have to score with an average of 120+ each game.
Let's be practical. Unless he does a Bradman, I would give him a slim 0/10.
No chance.
Predicted course of career (purple line):
#2 Rohit Sharma
For a man with more double hundreds than anyone else, run scoring has looked simply too easy for this opener. With an age of 31, Sharma certainly has a good number of years by his side, at least in comparison to Hashim Amla.
With 7454 runs at the moment from 193 games, the then 20-year-old debutant is certainly on track to leave a lasting mark. What would help is the fact that he can get his runs via boundary hitting and not just running, which is bound to deteriorate with age. As far as run scoring is concerned, Rohit has slowly emerged out of Kohli's shadow in the batting lineup over the last few years, which is visible in the steep climb of the red line in the chart below.
With a 20-game per year average, Sharma will play another 100 games assuming he plays until he is 36. He would then have to score at the average of nearly 100+ in his remaining years, which is a ridiculous ask considering he has only been able to maintain an average of 70 in the last 3 years, which looks like the prime of his career. With a better chance than Amla, Rohit still has insufficient time on his side.
He gets a 1/10.
Predicted career course (purple line):
#3 Joe Root
From the time he started at the age of 23, Joe Root was always touted to be English cricket's next big batting star and boy did he make it happen. Nearly 28 years old, Root has 4946 runs from the 121 games he has played at a remarkable average of 51.52. A look at his career cumulative average (yellow line) certainly suggests a steady uphill progression, and it seems like he has arrived at his comfortable average where he is likely to spend the rest of his playing career.
Playing approximately 19 ODIs each year if Root continues to play until he's 40 (i.e another 228 matches) Root ends with a grand total of 16574 runs, very close to the great Sachin Tendulkar. Therefore, Root actually has a decent chance of making it to the peak provided he keeps his fitness levels up and prevents any major injuries. However, Root certainly must get rid of the bad habit of not converting 50s to 100s, should he wish to get to the mark.
Something that does need to be taken into consideration is that English cricketers don't normally play 400-450 ODI's like Asian players, and rather prefer to play Test Cricket as the lone format towards the end of the career. In fact, series like the Ashes tend to take a lot out of English cricketers leading them to miss a significant amount of cricket in the build-up and aftermath of the grand contest.
Taking into consideration such factors, I would give him a 6/10.
Predicted Career Course: (purple line)
#4 Steven Smith
Steven Smith undoubtedly drove a hammer into his own feet with the whole sandpaper saga. He has been banned and struggling with his own non-cricketing reasons, finding it hard to find his feet.
The right-handed batsman has wasted a large number of games to represent his country, which has severely diminished his chances to compete with Sachin Tendulkar. So is there still a chance to overhaul the great Tendulkar?
Smith has 3431 runs from 108 games for Australia at a comparatively low batting average of 41.84. While he may be a competitor in Tests - and despite the fact that his average is an uphill trend - ODIs certainly don't seem to be his power game.
At the age of 29, turning almost 30 by the time he plays for Australia again, Steven Smith can count himself out of the race. I would give him a low 3/10, especially considering the nearly 15000 runs to go.
Predicted career course: (purple line)
#5 Virat Kohli
Here we go. 10232 runs from 216 games at an average of 59.83. The word 'machine' is often attached to Kohli as if it were a surname. Run-machine, ton-machine, award-machine. But does the machine have the oil to last the distance?
Having recently turned 30 and assuming a career until 40, Virat Kohli should play another 200 ODIs. In such a case, he would have to only maintain an average of 40 in his remaining 200 games to emulate Tendulkar by the time he's hit his fourth decade.
However, he could easily do it in another 7 years should he maintain an average of 60 he currently has. And a look at the averages chart shows potential for even more growth. The law of averages has given up on Kohli, as the chart shows:
Being way ahead on the journey compared to his peers, I give Kohli Kohli an 8.5/10. One and a half marks off because he loves the Test format and may give up on ODIs for what he loves.
Predicted career course: (purple line)
#6 Kane Williamson
One of the most aesthetically pleasing, textbooky batsman on earth, Kane Williamson would be the one I'd really hope to see crossing the landmark. Williamson is the most technically correct amongst everyone mentioned in the list, one of the prime reasons that has fetched him so much success. With 5157 runs from 127 matches, he averages a cracking 46.88. But there is a small problem.
With New Zealand playing fewer ODIs on an average each year than other countries, Williamson, the 28-year-old, would be able to manage approximately another 213 games in his remaining career should it last another 12 years. In that case, he would have to maintain a mind-boggling average of 62 while still getting older.
Considering New Zealand only play for 7-8 months, it is safe to say that Williamson will not get to the mark, despite the fact that he might get close. Let's give him a 2/10.
Predicted career course: (purple line)
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