Women's World Cup 2025 Qualification Scenarios: How can India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka qualify for semifinals?

India v England: ICC Women
India Women are on a three-match losing streak in Women’s World Cup 2025. (Image Credits: Getty Images)

South Africa beat Pakistan by 150 runs [DLS method] in match number 22 of ICC Women's World Cup 2025 at the R. Premadasa Stadium in Colombo on Tuesday, October 21. In another rain-hit game, Pakistan won the toss and opted to bowl.

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Fatima Sana's decision to field first backfired in a big way as the Proteas put up 312-9 in 40 overs. Skipper Laura Wolvaardt top-scored with 90 off 82 balls, while Sune Luus contributed 61 off 59 and Marizanne Kapp (68* off 43). Nadine de Klerk also clobbered 41 off 16 balls. Pakistan were set a revised DLS target of 234 in 20 overs. They were held to 83-7 as Kapp starred with 3-20.

Pakistan's loss on Tuesday meant that they have officially been knocked out of the Women's World Cup 2025. Australia, South Africa and England have already qualified for the next round. On that note, we take a look at what India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka need to do to claim the last semifinal spot in ICC Women's World Cup 2025.

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India (4 points, NRR +0.526)

Hosts India are currently fourth in the points table, with four points and a net run rate of +0.526. They have suffered three consecutive losses, but are still very much in contention for a place in the semifinals of Women's World Cup 2025.

India's next match is against New Zealand in Navi Mumbai on Thursday, October 23. If they win the match, they will be confirmed of a berth in the semifinals. A win will take them to six points. Even if they lose to Bangladesh and the Kiwis beat England to get to six points, India will progress on the basis of more wins.

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If the Women in Blue lose to New Zealand, they will need England to beat the Kiwis. India can then progress to the semifinals by beating Bangladesh in their last league game. If India's match against New Zealand is washed out and India also lose to Bangladesh, they will need England to beat Kiwis. In such a scenario also, India can qualify for the semifinals if Sri Lanka don't finish with six points.

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If both of India's remaining Women's World Cup 2025 matches are washed out due to rain, they can still qualify for the semifinals if England beat New Zealand or if the England-New Zealand match also gets washed out. Even if India and Sri Lanka are tied on six points, India will progress due to a better net run rate.


New Zealand (4 points, NRR -0.245)

New Zealand have been very unlucky in Women's World Cup 2025 when it comes to the weather factor. They have played five matches, winning one and losing two, while their last two games have been washed out due to rain. After five matches, the Kiwis have four points and a net run rate of -0.245.

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New Zealand need to beat India in stay in the semifinals race. A loss on Thursday will end their qualifying hopes as the Women in Blue will clinch the last top four berth. On the other hand, if the Kiwis win both their remaining Women's World Cup 2025 matches, they will be confirmed of a place in the semifinals.

In case New Zealand beat India but go down to England, they will then need Bangladesh to pull off an upset against India. In such a scenario, India will be stuck on four points, while New Zealand will finish on six. Sri Lanka can also finish on six points if they beat Pakistan. In such a scenario, the team with the better net run rate will progress to the semifinals of Women's World Cup 2025.

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New Zealand can also reach the semifinals if they defeat India and their game against England is washed out. In such a scenario, they will finish with seven points, while India will end on six even if they beat Bangladesh.

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In the event of the India-New Zealand match getting washed out, the Kiwis will need to beat England and then hope that Bangladesh beat India. If both of New Zealand's remaining matches are washed out, they can only finish in the top four if India and Sri Lanka finish the league stage on less than six points.


Sri Lanka (4 points, NRR -1.035)

Despite winning only one of their six matches, co-hosts Sri Lanka still have a faint chance of qualifying for the semifinals of the Women's World Cup 2025. For Sri Lanka to qualify, they need to beat Pakistan by a big margin in their last league game and also hope India lose both their remaining matches. That's not all, they will also need England to beat New Zealand.

In the above scenario, India would be stuck on four points, while Sri Lanka and New Zealand would finish on six points each. Sri Lanka can then progress to the semifinals provided they finish on a better net run rate than New Zealand. As of now Sri Lanka's net run rate is -1.035, while that of New Zealand is -0.245.

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Edited by Renin Wilben Albert
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