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F1 arrived in Montreal for the ninth race of the 2022 season, the Canadian GP. The season has been a rollercoaster ride so far; it began with a Charles Leclerc win and a double DNF for Red Bull in Bahrain. We saw Ferrari and Leclerc rise to prominence with a dominant win at the Australian GP.
At that point in the season, the Monegasque had 71 points in the championship, while Max Verstappen had just 25 points to his name. To make matters worse for the Austrian team, not only was its reliability an issue, but also its speed when compared to the Ferrari F1-75. The Maranello-based team appeared to hold the edge over Red Bull, and in Charles Leclerc, it had an able driver who could score maximum points weekend after weekend.
Since that race in Australia, Red Bull has not lost a single race. It is currently on a five-race winning streak. Ferrari, on the other hand, has encountered multiple issues with its car, ranging from reliability to tire wear. Right now, we have the Austrian team leading both the championships with Max Verstappen enjoying a 34-point lead over Charles Leclerc.
Eight-time world champion Mercedes has remained a bit of a disappointment. While it showed signs of massive improvement during the Spanish GP, it has continued to struggle due to its porpoising issue.
The championship is at a crucial juncture ahead of the Canadian GP. The constructors' championship battle could completely fall apart if Ferrari does not fight back soon. Furthermore, the new FIA directive is sure to shake things up in the paddocks as well.
All this to say that the Canadian GP has all the makings of being a fantastic, heart-stopping race, hence, without further ado, here are five of our boldest predictions for this weekend.
#5 Another disappointing weekend from Mick Schumacher
Mick Schumacher had another dismal weekend in Baku. He missed the first free practice session and just could not recover from lost time. His final lap in qualifying was almost six-tenths slower than his teammate Kevin Magnussen's.
Despite not having the best of starts to the season, Schumacher managed to close the gap to his teammate in the three races before Baku. He even managed to outqualify the Danish driver in Miami.
The Azerbaijan GP was different, however, as it appeared that the two drivers were almost driving two completely different cars. It has to be said that the drastic drop in form does coincide with Mick Schumacher's crash in Monaco and the public dressing down he received from Guenther Steiner.
With the Canadian GP only being a week after another dismal performance from the young German, we believe that he is in for another disappointing weekend.
#4 The bouncing phenomenon will make headlines. Again.
The new generation of cars, which once again employs 'ground effect', has brought with it the much-debated porpoising issue. It is uncomfortable to see these cars bounce up and down on the straights at such high speeds. Baku was probably the worst in terms of the physical strain it had on drivers' bodies. However, the Canadian GP might not be much better.
The FIA directive is therefore timely and welcomed by all the drivers. While the FIA's swift action needs to be praised, it brings with it many questions as well. What will be the threshold G-values? How accurate are the metrics that are used? Could the number on the scale and its effect inside the car vary?
It is safe to say that the bouncing phenomenon is going to keep everyone occupied during the Canadian GP weekend.
#3 Expect the unexpected from Aston Martin
Before the race in Baku, Aston Martin was considered to be the ninth fastest car on the grid. The new upgrade introduced at Barcelona might have looked like a "Green Red Bull," but it certainly did not perform like one.
Since then, however, every time the British team has hit the track, it has shown an incremental level of improvement in terms of competitiveness. Sebastian Vettel reached Q3 in Monaco. While, yes, most of it was put down to the driver's efforts and abilities behind the wheel, this was still progress for the team.
The car's true potential was revealed in Baku when admittedly Aston Martin started getting bolder with its package and unlocked more and more speed from it. As a result, we had the four-time world champion in potentially the fifth fastest car on the grid. He finished the race in P6, Aston Martin's best result of the season so far.
The track in Canada resembles that in Baku, so it should help the team hold onto its strong form. What will also help is the team's ability to manage porpoising better than other teams on the grid.
Can Aston Martin take over the "best of the rest" status in the midfield? We're banking on the team to do just that this weekend!
#2 Mercedes will plummet to the midfield
One image that has remained with F1 fans since last weekend's Azerbaijan GP was that of Lewis Hamilton struggling to get out of the car after the race.
The FIA has rightly intervened and will be monitoring the G-forces a driver is subjected to inside the car. According to data that has come out recently, Mercedes was suffering the most from it in Baku.
Karun Chandhok revealed during the post-race segment in Baku that the German team was running its car even lower than Red Bull in Baku, which resulted in the extreme bouncing that Hamilton suffered due to. At the Canadian GP, Mercedes will have to be extra cautious. There cannot be a repeat of what happened in Baku and there will be consistent monitoring from FIA as well. As a result, the team might be forced to run a more conservative setup. A setup that would ultimately mean making a compromise on performance.
Could this compromised setup result in Mercedes getting pushed into a midfield battle? Well, that is what we are banking on. At the Canadian GP, we predict Mercedes to slip into the midfield cluster as compared to the comfortable third-fastest position it has enjoyed being in so far this season.
#1 Charles Leclerc will win the Canadian GP
Believe it or not, even though Charles Leclerc has conceded 80 points to Max Verstappen this season, he is in glorious form this season. He has scored pole position in each of the last four races and if it wasn't for bad luck or Ferrari's incapability, Leclerc would be leading the championship right now.
The track in Canada has a lot of straights, which means that it favors Red Bull. In most scenarios, that would be true, but not for the Canadian GP; the track holds quite an uncanny resemblance to Albert Park.
One of the reasons why Ferrari was able to dominate at Albert Park was because while the track has straights, they are not your conventional long straights. When you compare the relative advantages of the two cars, Ferrari is quicker and better on acceleration. Where it starts to give up lap time is later in the straights when top speed takes over.
In Canada, except for the start-finish straight and the back straight where Red Bull should have the edge, every other part of the track should favor the Italian team. Fundamentally, Ferrari should be the better car for the Canadian GP. So, call us crazy, but we're predicting a Charles Leclerc win at the Canadian GP!
With this, we wrap up our five bold predictions. Make sure to tune in on Sunday, June 19, 2022, to see how the race unfolds.
