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With the first day running for the F1 US GP now in the background, we're heading into the business end of the weekend. There are no more young driver tests for the teams or any Pirelli prototype tire tests. We now have the qualifying session to decide the starting grid for the race.
While the second session was a bit inconsequential as teams had to run the prototype Pirelli tires, the first session gave hints of what to expect from qualifying this Saturday. So, what are the expectations from the qualifying session in COTA? Let's find out.
Disappointment of the session (Team)
A bumpy track with long straights does not work well for a car that hates bumps and has poor straight-line speed efficiency. Every car has looked a handful around COTA, especially from the onboards. The only representative pace for the F1 US GP weekend was when Hamilton was half a second slower than Sainz during FP1.
With a few Red Bull and Ferrari drivers facing grid penalties for the 2022 F1 US GP, the bad qualifying position might not matter. However, the Mercedes drivers might need to be careful not to get jumped in the session by an Alpine or a McLaren.
Disappointment of the session (Driver)
Sergio Perez will need to nail the perfect lap in qualifying to minimize the damage caused by the grid drop for the F1 US GP. The Mexican is in the fight for a P2 finish with Charles Leclerc, and the battle is surely going to swing back and forth until the last race of the season. FP1 wasn't too bad for Perez, but he needs a good result during qualifying to start in a respectable grid position.
Surprise of the session (Team)
In FP1 and FP2 (although it's hard to jump to any conclusions with the latter), Haas appears not to be struggling to the same extent as it has done in the last few races. The track layout for the F1 US GP features an interesting third sector with plenty of slow-speed corners. Those corners worked a treat for Ferrari in FP1 as Sainz pulled close to four-tenths of Verstappen on their fastest lap.
While Haas has far too many resemblances to the Ferrari, the car appears to have an impressive low-speed efficiency. With Mick Schumacher also showing decent speed in both the sessions and taking on the tight nature of the midfield this weekend, a top-10 start for the F1 US GP is well on the table.
Surprise of the session (Driver)
Mick Schumacher's second half of the season shows zero points to his name. However, it does not show that the driver has lost out on points in a few races. If it wasn't for the pitstop issues at Zandvoort, a points finish was in the offing. Additionally, because of the disastrous strategy in Suzuka, a strong opportunity to score points was lost. Similarly, if it wasn't for George Russell playing bumper cars in Singapore, the could driver would have had something to show for heading into the F1 US GP race weekend.
However, none of them have materialized. The German has seemingly run out of favor at Haas. If the first day of running for the 2022 F1 US GP is any indication, not only does Haas look good, but also Mick Schumacher. He might be expected to showcase his skills during the F1 US GP qualifying.
Top 3 in 2022 F1 US GP qualifying
From the looks of the limited and inconsequential run during the F1 US GP weekend, it can be deduced that Red Bull and Ferrari are somewhat neck-to-neck in terms of performance. Ferrari holds an advantage in the slow-speed sections, while Red Bull is quicker on the straights. Mercedes does not appear to be much of a factor around COTA, especially on a low-fuel run.
The top 3 battles will come down to the two Ferrari drivers and Max Verstappen, along with Sergio Perez somewhat struggling on a one-lap pace. Verstappen might be able to overcome Carlos Sainz on a single lap, but we're picking Charles Leclerc to beat Max Verstappen for the pole. If we have to pick the top 3 drivers for the F1 US GP qualifying, then it will be Charles Leclerc in pole position, with Max Verstappen being second and Carlos Sainz third.
