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The 2023 F1 Saudi Arabian GP does not have as much of a clear picture as many would have thought. Quite a few curveballs have been thrown in the 120 minutes of running that we've seen on the first day as teams try to hone their setups.
Both free practice sessions have seen Max Verstappen, Fernando Alonso, and Sergio Perez occupy the top 3 positions (the order has changed). Behind them, Ferrari has struggled to put together strong times on the first day and could be in trouble.
Keeping all of this in mind, what can we expect from the 2023 F1 Saudi Arabian GP qualifying? Let's take a look as we share our predictions.
#1 Max Verstappen secures pole position for the 2023 F1 Saudi Arabian GP
That lap from Fernando Alonso in FP2 was a thing of beauty and should have made everyone sit back and take notice. To add to this, it is hard to buy the theory that Ferrari is struggling so much that the car is slower than its customer team as well.
There are two possibilities for the session. The first is Red Bull ramping things up and no team being able to play catch up. In that scenario, Max Verstappen secures pole position comfortably.
The second scenario is the more interesting one where there could be a battle for pole position between Red Bull, Aston Martin, and Ferrari.
Even in this scenario, with Charles Leclerc already compromised and Fernando Alonso not having the one-lap prowess of Verstappen, the Red Bull driver appears to hold the advantage.
Looking at the runs on Day 1, we're tending towards a close battle between Ferrari, Red Bull, and Aston Martin, with Max Verstappen securing pole position.
#2 Fernando Alonso will start the race on the front row
With Charles Leclerc having a 10-place grid penalty already, the Ferrari driver will not be a factor in the battle at the front. However, with Leclerc out of the picture, we're backing Alonso to get the better of Sainz and Perez and secure a front-row start for his team.
The driver has looked more comfortable than Sergio Perez this weekend and it would not be too big a surprise if he starts the 2023 F1 Saudi Arabian GP on the front row.
#3 At least one Alpine out-qualifies a Mercedes driver
Unless Alpine ran extremely high engine modes on Friday, the pace is genuine. To expect the Enstone-based squad to challenge the top 3 is a step too far, but expecting Alpine to challenge Mercedes should not come as a surprise.
The consecutive lap times both Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon put together were not only impressive but a sign of how much fuel these cars carried and even then pulled off those impressive laps.
Alpine is a dark horse for the 2023 F1 Saudi Arabian GP race weekend. In a conservative prediction, we're predicting one of the two drivers to out-qualify a Mercedes driver.
#4 Operational acumen is going to prove the difference maker
Let's get one thing straight, it will not take long for any session of the 2023 F1 Saudi Arabian GP to turn into a lottery. The track is very narrow, and car placement even during warm-up laps is going to be crucial. Not only that, there is going to be an emphasis on traffic during qualifying laps.
Encountering a car during your hot lap ruins your qualifying. Similarly, if you block another driver, you get a grid drop as well. For teams in the midfield especially, operational acumen is going to play a major role in the final result.
#5 The rookies might get eliminated in Q1
The three rookies; Logan Sargeant, Oscar Piastri, and Nyck de Vries have not looked as comfortable during the Saudi Arabian GP weekend as might have been expected.
One of the reasons behind this could be the fact that the drivers had enough time in Bahrain with the pre-season test to get attuned to conditions. Here, they've not had the same privilege.
To add to this, all three - McLaren, Williams, and AlphaTauri - might not have the car capable of reaching Q3 at this track. If that is the case, we could possibly be looking at all of the three rookies getting eliminated in Q1. Jeddah is certainly not an easy track and these drivers might be in for a rude awakening.
