Is Max Verstappen now a title contender?

Max Verstappen has slashed the championship deficit to Oscar Piastri to 69 points now as the Red Bull driver picked up his second consecutive win in Baku. The reigning champion, armed with an upgraded Red Bull, has been a force to contend with, as the car's new floor has handed him a substantial advantage over McLaren in specific conditions.

While that is the case, we're looking at a 69-point deficit to Oscar Piastri with only 7 races left. If the driver can overcome the deficit and win the championship, this might just be one of the greatest seasons in F1 history. That brings us to the main question. Should Max Verstappen be considered a title contender now? Let's take a look.

The conditions in which Max Verstappen has won

First, we must see where Max Verstappen has won recently. The driver was dominant in Monza and in Baku, and on a surface level, they do give the impression that these tracks are low-downforce heavens. In essence, yes, they are.

If we are talking about tracks like Monza, you need to have brilliant low-downforce efficiency. At the same time, however, if we are talking about Baku, that's not necessarily just a track with low downforce efficiency, as the second sector is almost entirely a slow-speed twisty section where the demands are completely different.

Hence, the Red Bull could potentially have a car that is just brilliant on the straights, it is no slouch in the slow-speed sections either.

Out of the last 7 races where can we guarantee a competitive Red Bull?

It is a hard question to address because we are still not sure how the upgraded floor works on tracks that require a higher downforce. With that being said, one can be rest assured that the tracks with the longer straights and requiring a lower downforce setup are going to favor Red Bull.

We can expect Max Verstappen to be a serious contender for the win on tracks like Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi. At the same time, one could potentially expect a competitive Red Bull at Austin and Brazil as well.

The gains that Red Bull has made

One of the things that stands out for Red Bull is the magnitude of improvement shown by the car over a 12-month period. The team had arguably two of its worst races in Monza and Baku last season, and this time around the car looked exponentially better on these tracks.

If Max Verstappen, who had two of his worst races in 2024 at Monza and Baku, turns around and wins them, what can one expect from the driver on tracks where he was relatively competitive last season? If you are a fan of his, this is precious and would give you more confidence in what's possible in that car.

The litmus test

In all fairness, the litmus test for a potential title campaign is going to be how Max Verstappen fares at Singapore. If the Dutch driver is strong enough and competitive enough to put up a fight against the McLarens, then this championship fight might just be on. If he does, however, struggle, it's going to be very hard to eat into the 69-point deficit that he has to Oscar Piastri.