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The rise of analytics in sport over the past few years has been absolutely tremendous, with data also playing a critical role in a goal-based sport like football.
Nearly every aspect of the game is now evaluated using large data sets and various parameters. The sport is now run by data - be it buying players based on statistics or training against teams based on their performance statistics.
Football being a goal-based sport, various goal-related statistics are carefully analysed to determine several factors such as a player or team's attacking capabilities, etc. When it comes to goal-scoring aspects, xG is one of the most popular and relevant metrics.
xG stands for 'expected goals' and is essentially a measure of how many goals a player or team is expected to score based on the number of shots taken.
It also takes into consideration a plethora of details such as shot angle, type of shot and distance from goal, among others. In other words, xG is the best indicator of how lethal or prolific a particular player or team is.
A good xG score would usually mean a player or team is clinical and can score a good amount of goals with a relatively low number of chances and shots.
In this listicle, we look at ten players who have the highest % over xG; that is a measure of how many goals they have scored beyond the number of goals they were expected to based on data analytics, thereby highlighting how clinical they have been.
This list is based on a study carried out by The Independent, where the top goal-scorers from Europe's top leagues were analysed and compared in terms of their % over xG.
Ten most clinical goal-scorers from Europe's top leagues
The data used in the study involves the goals scored by the top goal-scorers in Europe's top leagues from August 2016 onwards.
Notably, neither Cristiano Ronaldo (13th) nor Robert Lewandowski (16th) makes the top 10.
Without further ado, let us have a look at who makes the top ten.
#10 Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Premier League, Serie A)
Goals scored: 39.
% over xG: 9.18.
Since August 2016, Zlatan Ibrahimovic has played for Manchester United in the Premier League and AC Milan in Serie A.
He has scored 39 league goals across both competitions since then.
The 39-year-old has scored 9.18% more goals than he was expected to (xG).
In the ongoing season, Ibrahimovic has already scored 12 goals in nine Serie A matches.
#9 Mohamed Salah (Serie A, Premier League)
Goals scored: 101.
% over xG: 11.81.
Mohamed Salah played for AS Roma in Serie A in the 2016-17 season (scoring 15 goals) before moving to Liverpool in June 2017.
Since then, Salah has been of the most prolific goal-scorers in the Premier League, scoring 86 goals in 126 matches. The 28-year-old has scored 13 times in 18 matches in the ongoing season despite enduring a recent drought.
Since August 2016, Mohamed Salah has scored a total of 101 goals, scoring 11.81% goals more than he was expected to.
#8 Jamie Vardy (Premier League)
Goals scored: 85.
% over xG: 13.51.
Jamie Vardy won the Premier League Player of the Season award after helping Leicester City lift their first ever league title in 2015-16.
Vardy has continued to be the club's most lethal goal-scorer ever since. The 34-year-old has scored 11 goals in 18 league games this season, helping Leicester City to third place in this season's competition.
Since the start of the 2016-17 season, Vardy has scored 85 goals in 159 Premier League games, scoring 13.51% more goals than he was expected to.
#7 Kylian Mbappe (Ligue 1)
Goals scored: 93.
% over xG: 14.35.
Kylian Mbappe rose to prominence because of his sensational performances that helped AS Monaco win the 2016-17 Ligue 1 title.
Mbappe, who scored 15 league goals that season, subsequently moved to Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) in August 2017.
In just three and a half seasons at PSG, Mbappe has already become the club's fourth-highest goal-scorer of all time with 106 goals in all competitions.
Since August 2016, the 22-year-old has scored 91 league goals at 14.35% over his xG.
#6 Romelu Lukaku (Premier League, Serie A)
Goals scored: 88.
% over xG: 15.05.
Romelu Lukaku had an explosive 2016-17 season, as he scored 25 goals for Everton in the Premier League.
His performances subsequently earned him a move to Manchester United, where he struggled to get going though.
In 2019, Lukaku moved to Inter Milan and has since scored 35 league goals in 52 matches.
Since the start of the 2016-17 season, Lukaku has scored 88 league goals across both leagues, outscoring his xG by 15.05%.
#5 Sadio Mane (Premier League)
Goals scored: 69.
% over xG: 16.36.
Sadio Mane completed a move to Liverpool in the summer of 2016 and has been an integral part of the side since then.
Mane has helped Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League and the Premier League in the last two seasons.
During his time at Liverpool, the 28-year-old Mane has scored 69 league goals - scoring 16.36% more than he was expected to.
While his tally of goals may not match the others on this list, Mane has been more clinical than most based on his xG.
#4 Ciro Immobile (Serie A)
Goals scored: 116.
% over xG: 21.14.
Ciro Immobile, who joined Lazio in the summer of 2016, has been one of the most effective strikers in the game since then.
He helped Lazio win the Coppa Italia in 2018-19 and the Supercoppa Italiana twice (2017 and 2019)
This season, Immobile has scored 13 league goals in 17 matches.
Since 2016, the 30-year-old striker has scored 116 league goals in 159 matches, which is 21.14% more goals than he was expected to score.
#3 Lionel Messi (La Liga)
Goals scored: 143.
% over xG: 21.31.
Lionel Messi has been synonymous with goals throughout his career, and things have been no different between 2016 and the present day as well.
Since the start of the 2016-17 season, Messi has scored 143 goals for Barcelona in 154 La Liga games, which is 21.31% more than he was expected to score.
#2 Harry Kane (Premier League)
Goals scored: 106.
% over xG: 21.33.
Harry Kane has been among the leading strikers in the game for a while.
Plying his trade for Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League, the 27-year-old is already the club's third-highest goal-scorer of all time.
Since August 2016, Kane has scored 106 league goals at an excellent rate of 21.33% over his xG.
#1 Son-Heung Min (Premier League)
Goals scored: 61.
% over xG: 44.41.
A surprise leader of the pack, Son-Heung Min has scored only 61 league goals for Tottenham Hotspur since the start of the 2016-17 season.
However, he has been the most clinical goal-scorer based on the number and quality of the chances he has conjured or capitalised on during this period.
In the ongoing season, he has scored 12 goals in 18 Premier League matches, for an exceptional goals over xG ratio of 44.41%.
