3 reasons why Arsenal could stun Bayern Munich at The Emirates

On Wednesday night, Arsenal welcome Bayern Munich to the Emirates Stadium in what will undoubtedly be a tight, nervy affair between a pair of European heavyweights from two of the most distinguished leagues in the world.

Yet, the first leg of this last 16 tie seems to be all but concluded as most bookies, fans and commentators have already decided it’s a done deal. Pep Guardiola’s side will arrive in London, do what they do so well, and Arsenal will essentially give in. The first leg will belong to the German and European champions and the tie will be done.

Not exactly.

A possible chink in Bayern’s armour

Although over their past three games in Germany, Bayern have amassed a staggering eleven goals while conceding none, and currently hold a number of defensive records in the Bundesliga, the assumption that their back-line is water tight is one a tactician like Arsene Wenger is unlikely to make.

For if Guardiola were to stick with the general line-up that has seen him do so well this season, which would entail keeping Philipp Lahm at central midfield, it would then mean keeping Rafinha at right back and giving Arsenal a fantastic target to aim for as they run towards the Bayern goal.

Levekusen Action Areas vs Bayern (H) – Bundesliga 2013/14

There are few examples of Rafinha’s faults due to the fact that Bayern concede so few goals in Germany, but if we were to take the example of Bayer Leverkusen’s mode of attack during a 1-1 draw earlier in the season it’s fair and rather evident to deduce where they focused their attack.

No Franck Ribery

On the face of it, this suggestion makes little sense. Yes, Franck Ribery is an outstanding player for Bayern and his absence will undoubtedly be missed, but the likes of Xherdan Shaqiri who scored two goals in the Frenchman’s absence this weekend are surely perfectly capable of replacing the former Ballon d’Or contender?

Well no, not exactly. For all of Shaqiri’s brilliance and the undoubted progress he’s made this season as a first team regular, the young Swiss forward simply is not Ribery and if he starts in his position Arsenal will have to act upon it accordingly. As displayed by the graphic above, the first match against Manchester City in this season’s Champions League group stages, Ribery is simply the engine of this Bayern attack when he’s fit and well. Without him Bayern are undoubtedly a lesser side. Which is certainly a bonus for Wenger’s men.

Bayern’s team are unsettled

This point is perhaps the most wobbly or far-fetched of the lot, considering the simple fact that this Bavarian powerhouse of a team are quite clearly one of the best sides in Europe at the moment.

Yet, during the past few games we’ve seen Guardiola make a notable effort to bring back players to ensure their fitness for this coming Champions League tie: Bastian Schweinsteiger and Javi Martinez.

Now Schweinsteiger has come back, slotted back into his usual position, and looked as though he never left, with his expert mix of physicality and genuine technique to keep the Bayern midfield machine ticking over. Martinez, though, is a slightly different story.

Guardiola has made an effort to slot him in at centre back at the expense of Jerome Boateng, who has on the whole had a relatively successful and consistent season alongside his Brazilian partner Dante, which we saw briefly against Nurnberg last week and against Freiburg on Saturday with mixed results.

Javi Martinez Tackle Success vs Freiburg – Bundesliga 2013/14

What will interest Wenger – if Martinez does indeed start at centre back – is the manner in which he continually found himself out of position, due to his instinctual nature to march through the centre of the pitch like the box-to-box midfielder he is, as well as his poor ability to stick in a challenge. The graphic above displays that perfectly. Martinez may be a future centre back in the making, but he isn’t perfect yet, which is something that Arsenal could definitely take advantage of.