5 reasons why Chelsea should stick with Antonio Conte

Despite beating Southampton yesterday to make the FA Cup Final, basically everyone – analysts and fans alike – seem to agree that Antonio Conte is living on borrowed time at Chelsea. The Blues currently sit in 5th place in the Premier League – 5 points off the pace behind 4th place Tottenham, and it looks likely that they’ll miss out on a lucrative Champions League spot.

Granted, they’ve been the victims of some embarrassing results this season – losing to the likes of Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Watford – and chairman Roman Abramovich is notoriously trigger-happy when it comes to getting rid of managers. But will he be making a mistake if he fires Conte? He might well be, and here are five reasons why.

#1 His season hasn’t been that bad

After yesterday's win over Southampton, Conte could still win silverware this season

If Abramovich is planning to fire Conte, the likelihood is that he’s already made up his mind and he’s got a replacement lined up already. The problem with that though is that Conte’s season isn’t quite over. After Saturday, he’s got the chance to lead Chelsea to some silverware – albeit somewhat of a consolation prize – in the form of the FA Cup, and realistically, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that the Blues could still qualify for the Champions League.

Even if they lose the FA Cup final and miss out on Champions League qualification, however, Conte really hasn’t had that bad of a season. Chelsea’s 2017/18 has been nowhere near as dire as their 2015/16 performance under Jose Mourinho – a season that saw them finish in 10th place and suffer 12 losses along the way.

Conte has undoubtedly seen some poor results this season but he’s also seen his team put on some very impressive performances – their wins over both Tottenham and Manchester United early on in the season come to mind. And in a competition as competitive as the Premier League, finishing in 5th place behind the Manchester sides, Liverpool and Tottenham isn’t as bad as some would make out.

Essentially, Conte has had a lesser season this time but only by his own lofty standards. For me, that’s no reason to get rid of him.

#2 He only won the Premier League last season

It was only a season ago when Conte won the Premier League with Chelsea

Okay, so Roman Abramovich is no stranger to firing managers who’ve slipped up not long after seeing success. Carlo Ancelotti was disposed of just one season after winning the Premier League title, even though his side finished second, and Roberto di Matteo didn’t even last a full season despite winning the Champions League.

But let’s be honest, the decision to fire Ancelotti was disastrous, as Chelsea didn’t succeed in the league after getting rid of him for another four seasons. Whether Abramovich has learned from this mistake is up for debate, but he’s clearly no fool, and to sack Antonio Conte now would essentially be a repeat of the exact same mistake.

One poor(er) season simply doesn’t make someone a poor manager. Literally less than a year ago Conte was being hailed as a genius for being able to take basically the same Chelsea side that finished 10th in 2015/16 to the Premier League title, despite only making four major signings. He innovated a new style for Chelsea – utilizing a three-man defence and turning Victor Moses into a dangerous wing-back – and swept the board.

Firing him now would basically be akin to ignoring his accomplishments at Stamford Bridge, and that’d be ridiculous. Surely it’d be smarter for Chelsea to write off this season and simply trust Conte to right the ship next season? After all, this is a Premier League-winning boss we’re talking about.

#3 Who would replace him?

Chelsea is rumored to be targeting Max Allegri to replace Conte - but would he want the job?

Before Chelsea make the call to fire Conte, perhaps it’d be smart to actually look around at what kind of possible replacements they could bring in. The list isn’t exactly long and in all honesty, no name really stands out above everyone else. And even the standout candidates would be question marks for a variety of reasons.

Abramovich isn’t likely to bring back Carlo Ancelotti – who is available – so we can probably discount him. Massimiliano Allegri is a name that’s been mentioned, but would he really want to leave Juventus – who he’s taken to two Champions League finals and has won 3 Serie A titles with – for a club as notoriously unsteady as Chelsea? The same can easily be said for Diego Simeone at Atletico Madrid, too.

Thomas Tuchel and Leonardo Jardim would be options, but realistically both would be huge risks akin to the one Abramovich took back in 2011/12 when he hired Andre Villas-Boas – both are somewhat unproven at the very top level; Tuchel’s list of honours is remarkably short considering his reputation and Jardim has yet to manage in a top European league.

So are any of those options – or other names like Brendan Rodgers or Joachim Low - really better than the man who’s in charge right now? I would probably lean towards no, which would be another reason why it could be a mistake to get rid of Conte.

#4 Why not change the dressing room?

Conte has helped to develop the likes of Ethan Ampadu (pictured) and Victor Moses

The general consensus on where it’s gone wrong for Conte at Chelsea seems to be the usual spiel of “he’s lost the dressing room”. Whether that’s true or not is totally up for debate, but one thing is for certain and that’s that this has been a problem for other Chelsea bosses over the years. Andre Villas-Boas ended up being fired after falling out with senior players, and it was similar clashes that ended Jose Mourinho’s second reign in 2015, too.

Given Conte is clearly a talented and successful boss, though, surely it’d make more sense to give him more power rather than get rid of him and allow him to clear out some of the dead wood from the Chelsea squad and replace them with players who fit into his vision more clearly.

The likes of Gary Cahill, Cesc Fabregas and David Luiz appear to be past their best at this stage anyway; it might make sense to cash in on Eden Hazard and Thibaut Courtois this summer given both men are somewhat inconsistent despite being brilliant at times, and there’d still be a solid spine of players – Cezar Azpilicueta, N’Golo Kante, Willian – to build around.

Plus, Chelsea have one of the best academies in the game and continually produce some tremendous talent. Given the improvements in the likes of Victor Moses, Willian and Ethan Ampadu under Conte, who better to develop the likes of Mason Mount, Tammy Abraham and Ruben Loftus-Cheek when they return to the club?

#5 The other big clubs are going long haul

Other big Premier League clubs - like the Manchester sides - appear to be building dynasties with long-term bosses

Ignoring the fact that Arsene Wenger’s 22-year reign in charge of Arsenal is finally coming to an end in the summer, the other big clubs of the Premier League – Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham and Liverpool – all appear to be looking for long-term managers who can build dynasties rather than the kind of instant success that Abramovich has been demanding at Chelsea.

Both Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho will be heading into their third seasons at City and United respectively; Jurgen Klopp has been at Liverpool since 2015/16 and Mauricio Pochettino has been at Tottenham since 2014/15. None of those clubs look set to change bosses as they all appear to recognize the benefits of playing the longer game.

While Chelsea’s short term-ism has worked for them in the past, the Premier League is a different place today. The Blues can no longer simply buy whoever they want as both Manchester teams can outspend them, while the volatile nature of the club might lead top players to look at the likes of Liverpool and Tottenham as an alternative too.

If they don’t want to risk falling behind the rest of the so-called ‘big six’ with their more stable platforms, then Chelsea would be wise to look to build a dynasty rather than continue to live in the moment. And given he’s already won the Premier League with the club, who better to build that dynasty than Antonio Conte?