After an extremely demanding few months, the English domestic season concludes with the FA Cup final on 27 May at the famous Wembley Stadium. 736 teams entered the tournament last year and it has now come down to the final two – London rivals Arsenal and Chelsea.
Both teams have had contrasting campaigns. Chelsea under new boss Antonio Conte cantered to the Premier League title while Arsene Wenger’s side finished fifth and failed to qualify for the Champions League for the first time in 20 years. Against each other, though, both teams won at home in convincing fashion.
But league form goes out the window when it’s a cup final where anything can happen. Can the Gunners win a 13th FA Cup and set a new record or will the Blues win their first FA Cup since 2012? We look at five factors that could decide the result.
1) Arsenal’s centre-back crisis
As ridiculous as it sounds, the FA Cup final has come at the wrong time for Arsenal. Their Premier League campaign ended with the loss of three centre-backs in the final two games of the season.
Firstly, they will be without their stand-in captain Laurent Koscielny. The French centre-back was sent off in the final game against Everton at the Emirates when he lunged in recklessly on Enner Valencia.
The club appealed the decision but the FA confirmed that Koscielny would serve the suspension, effectively ending his season when he should have been leading the team out at Wembley. Soon after, Gabriel had to be stretchered off with a serious knee injury that will keep him out of action at least until the squad returns for 2017/18 pre-season preparations.
To make matters worse, Shkodran Mustafi has still not been cleared for action after a blow to his head in the previous game ruled him out of the Everton game. The club may play him if he is deemed fit but concussion protocols will take precedence before a player’s safety is put at risk.
This leaves only Per Mertesacker and Rob Holding as the available centre-backs. Although Holding has impressed in the latter stages of the season, the final would be Mertesacker’s first start of the season!
2) Which formation will Wenger use: 3-4-2-1 or 4-2-3-1?
With two first-choice centre-backs possibly missing out, Wenger may not risk playing a back-three with Per Mertesacker. The German defender missed 99% of the season and played only 37 minutes on the final day only because Arsenal lost two centre-backs in the game.
The 32-year-old has not played in the new system and, even if he did start, he would struggle in a back-three that has been so successful at the end of the season. A back-three will force Wenger to use Nacho Monreal as the other centre-back instead of the full-back or wing-back.
Monreal and Holding are capable of playing in a back-three but Mertesacker’s lack of pace would leave them vulnerable to a Chelsea counter-attack. Moreover, Mertesacker will not be able to handle Diego Costa on his own in a back-three and would be far more comfortable in a back-four.
Switching to a back four will see Monreal and Hector Bellerin move back to the role of full-back but it would blunt Arsenal’s attack that has managed to score in all but one game since Wenger changed things around, winning eight of the nine games in which the back-three formation was deployed.
For Wenger, it is a question of either sacrificing stability at the back or the presence of an extra man in the final third. Going head-to-head with Conte’s ruthlessly effective 3-4-3 with a similar formation would make for a very interesting battle.
3) The midfield battle
Conte will consider himself lucky that N’Golo Kante decided to move to Chelsea from Premier League champions Leicester City last summer. The Premier League Player of the Season has been a force all by himself and is the first name that goes into the teamsheet.
Alongside Nemanja Matic, Chelsea have stopped opponents in their tracks before they can build any momentum. The two make a lethal combination in midfield and that has affected Cesc Fabregas’ game time as a result. But Chelsea’s creativity stems from the wings where the wing-backs attack while the wide forwards cut in.
Also read: Does Cesc Fabregas have a future at Chelsea?
With Arsenal, their midfield is their biggest strength. Granit Xhaka has finally blossomed into the ideal central midfielder after a frustrating few months of adaptation and is looking the part for a £35m signing. His ability to hold on to the ball under pressure and find teammates with accurate long balls have added an extra dimension to the attack.
Aaron Ramsey has been paired with Xhaka and is likely to start the final. The Welshman has not had the best of seasons but has shown in the past month that he is getting back to his best. Xhaka’s presence and the new formation gives him freedom to roam between the lines which has worked wonders.
The two have also liberated Mesut Ozil who is now more involved in the final third. The new formation affords the German playmaker both space and time that saw him involved in four goals in the last four games.
So the question for Conte is: will Chelsea be outnumbered in midfield with two defensive players taking on three creative midfielders – all of whom can provide the killer pass? And the question for Wenger: how will he tackle Chelsea’s wing play?
4) Which team has better options off the bench?
The problem with Conte’s side is that although Chelsea have the best starting XI in the league, he did not get the players he wanted to make up the entire squad. While that is an issue he will tackle when the transfer window opens, he is lucky to still have all his key players available over the course of the season.
Conte has been largely successful because his tactical change has worked to perfection; i.e. his switch to a back-three. But should he encounter a stubborn Arsenal side at Wembley then he will have to look to the bench where the Blues have only Cesc Fabregas, Willian, and Michy Batshuayi who could make the difference in attack. Apart from Fabregas, the latter two are like-for-like replacements (for Costa and Hazard/Pedro).
On the other hand, Wenger has Danny Welbeck or Olivier Giroud who operate in different ways on the pitch. Welbeck relies on his pace and movement while Giroud on his physicality in the box and holding up play. Alexis Sanchez could also lead the line if required so Wenger has a ‘Plan C’ just in case.
If the match goes into extra-time, a fourth substitution comes into play and Arsenal have plenty more experienced options in Theo Walcott and Alex Iwobi (now in his second season as a first team player) while Conte will only find Nathan Ake to call upon. The Italian boss will want to ensure the match is over in 90 minutes as they all did in the previous rounds.
5) Will Chelsea have a title hangover? Don’t bet on it!
93 points saw Chelsea crowned champions of England with two games to spare. So will they take their foot off the gas? Not if Conte has anything to say about it.
An amusing anecdote from the book Metodo Conte springs to mind concerning Conte’s style of management during his stint at Juventus. The Old Lady had already won the league and goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon walked into a video review session with chief executive Guiseppe Marotta to discuss bonuses for the team.
Conte absolutely lost it and chased every single person out of the room before yelling at Buffon, “From you, of all people, I would never have expected such a thing. Bonuses... You’re a disappointment!” Juventus promptly went and won 3-0 that weekend to take their points tally to 102.
Chelsea fans can rest assured that Conte will ensure his team go all out for the FA Cup to end the season with a domestic double. And unlike Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea have a pretty good record at Wembley.
