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#2 Forwards are usually preferred for the award
This is one of the biggest factors that could lead to Messi winning this year's Ballon d'Or. There is a clear bias towards forwards among the jury members who vote for the award, and Messi doesn't have the strongest competition in that area.
Cristiano Ronaldo has had a disappointing first season for the Old Lady, and his win in the UEFA Nations League doesn't really make him a favorite for the award. The Portuguese has always been competition for the little Argentine but this season, Messi seems ahead of him comfortably.
The other serious competition he is facing is from Virgil van Djik. The Liverpool center-back has been tremendous this season. He played a crucial part in Liverpool winning the Champions League and he also led Netherlands wonderfully. But we don't often see center-backs winning the Ballon d'Or.
Kylian Mbappe is the other forward who has had a great goal-scoring year, but the Ligue 1 isn't considered to be one of the toughest leagues in the world. That reduces the young Frenchman's chances of winning the award.
So with the lack of competition in the attacking sense, Messi could be the favorite this season.
