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FC Barcelona and Real Madrid will go head to head once again on Wednesday night at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu. The third El Clasico of this season is a decider of the Copa Del Rey finalist. The score from the first leg is tied at 1-1. Lucas Vazquez and Malcom were on the scoresheet at the Nou Camp.
It will be another interesting affair at the Bernabeu and there has to be a winner here. This will set up another Clasico just three days later in the LaLiga. The Clasico hardly ever ends scoreless and it wasn't so on the last 5 occasions. With Leo Messi poised to start in the Clasico and also Sergio Ramos, who was suspended for the Liga game back for selection, the mind games are about to begin, and so are the antics on the pitch.
Hernandez Hernandez is the referee for the game and the last game he officiated between these two sides was a comical affair. A red card for Sergi Roberto, a clear penalty denied to Real Madrid, he gave decisions that were poor and not biased in a game that ended 2-2. The man behind the screens on VAR is Mateu Lahoz, another controversial figure.
Well, referees are secondary, the game is primary. Let us focus on five factors that could decide the El Clasico.
#5 Away goal advantage: What do Madrid want to do?
So we have already mentioned that Real Madrid do have an away goal advantage. It means that if the score ends 0-0, then the Los Blancos move into the final. If the score ends 1-1, we go right into extra-time and also followed by the dreaded penalties. Talking in tennis terms, the ball is in Madrid's court for now. At least till the ref blows his starting whistle.
So what does Solari want here? Does he want to park the bus and get away with it or does he want to attack and make this safe? Solari is a very flexible coach, he changes up his tactics and is not adamant about any philosophy or stuff. We have seen Madrid dominate possession and win (vs Sevilla) and also hanging by the thread by blocking the defenses (vs Real Betis).
Madrid do have an away goal here. They have two good central midfielders who can defend and dribble out of danger zones. They have a good center back partnership and they have fast wingers. So, sit back and hit on the counter or attack first and then fall back? The decision is Solari's and both are equally feasible but the former is dangerously damaging.
#4 Arthur injured: Can Barcelona cope in the midfield?
What was the story of the last two Clasicos in the middle of the park? It was a young boy from Brazil who had never played European football till 2018, dancing in the middle and almost schooling the likes of Luka Modric and Toni Kroos. Arthur was the king of the midfield in the 5-1 win at Camp Nou. In the 1-1 draw, he was equally amazing but he also picked up a knock and is now out of this second leg.
To put things into perspective, Barcelona have never looked a good side in the midfield without Arthur. There is a sense of something missing. The hold-up play and press resistance that he offers is not offered by Vidal, Rakitic, or Sergi Roberto. When playing against Modric and Kroos in the middle, both these characteristics are important. Busquets is there but what about the others?
Rakitic was great in the game against Sevilla but the midfield as a collective unit was poor. Arturo Vidal can run without exhaustion but offers no creativity. Busquets is a great player but was poor in the last game. The bright spot for Barcelona in the midfield comes with Alena. The former Barca-B captain was amazing when he came on late against Sevilla. The third goal came due to his deflected shot, the fourth one came after he won the header in the middle and got the ball to Leo Messi.
We don't know what Barcelona's midfield would be? Rakitic-Busquets-Vidal is suicidal, slow, no threat and no creativity. Coutinho and Alena are both strong contenders for the spot but who? Alena, who is less experienced but is still oozing with confidence and offers big creativity in the middle? Or Coutinho, a man down on confidence but in every right, a match-winner? Who is it gonna be EV? If you ask me, take Alena.
#3 Momentum: The key to everything
Momentum is a key point prior to each and every game. Momentum does not necessarily mean form but we deal with a rather short period while considering momentum. Looking at the current form, Real Madrid might have had the upper hand. They were playing a series of great games against the likes of Ajax, Sevilla, Atletico, and even Barca themselves. But that is until they let it all down the drain with a big momentum shift.
In the game against Girona, they squandered a chance to put pressure on Barcelona, lost to the 15th placed team and that too after taking a 1-0 lead into halftime. Against Levante, they better hang their heads in shame because they were outclassed. Tactically, mentally, physically, Levante deserved to win the game.
However, with some extremely lucky VAR decisions going their way, that awarded them two penalties, they managed to squeeze past Levante. The first penalty was arguably a wrong decision while the second one was a crystal clear dive from Casemiro. To add to it, Levante weren't awarded a penalty they should have been.
Barcelona, on the other hand, are going through a poor run of form. They have not won any game convincingly in February. What they have, though, is momentum, thanks to one man who wears #10 on his back. The win against Sevilla has truly lifted the spirit of the dressing room and given a confidence boost to the players. If I was given a choice I would rather be inside the Blaugrana camp rather than the Los Blancos camp which wasn't the case before the first leg.
Momentum is with Barcelona this time.
#2 The left-flank of Madrid or the right flank of Barca: Where everything lies
The left flank was on fire at Camp Nou in the first leg. Nelson Semedo, Malcom, Marcelo, Vinicius Jr, everyone was doing something. The players were always running up and down the pitch. Vinicius created some good scoring opportunities but he was cursed by poor final pass. Marcelo was shut down by Malcom, smothered, to be honest. Nelson Semedo was equally good at attacking and supporting Malcom and he also defended Vinicius, especially well in the second half.
This time we might not have Barcelona's hero from the last game, Malcom, on the pitch. But we might well have Sergio Reguilon, Sergi Roberto, and Ousmane Dembele this time. Reguilon would most probably be trusted ahead of the rusty Marcelo. Although Dembele would start from left-wing on the team sheet, he would probably sway more into his stronger side while Messi would be in his free-roam position. Sergi could be used in the midfield position and he has shown the tendency to drift wide as well.
With all these players on the same flank, we except a sheer amount of pace, a lot of tackling and ball recoveries, a lot of twisted ankles too. If Messi decides to stay on that flank, then Reguilon better be ready. Reguilon's inexperience could also backfire on Madrid if he starts. Dembele is sometimes in such an overdrive that he could simply dribble past players and score. He did that against Spurs.
#1 The mercurial magician: Lionel Messi's red-hot form
There won't be an El Clasico without Lionel Messi if Barcelona can help it. In the last Clasico, this man was tying his shoelaces and the Camp Nou burst into chants of "Messi, Messi". He played only about 30 minutes in that game and still caused a visible change. Real Madrid were more defensive when Messi was on the pitch.
Messi's personality in the Clasico and especially at the Bernabeu is sort of The Joker. He is the villain that you would love to have on your side but alas he plays for your arch-rivals. Messi is the top-scorer in the El Clasico and the memories that he created at Bernabeu are not explainable in words. To name a few, the hattrick in the 4-3 win, the crazy solo goal in UCL semi-finals, the 92nd-minute sucker punch, the brace in the 6-2 win, it goes on. All these moments came in Clasicos at Bernabeu. Each of these performances was a beauty in itself even though the ultras never applauded him.
Messi ran riots at the Sanchez Pizjuan against Sevilla with a hattrick and an assist. He would be carrying the same form to the Bernabeu. Who needs Leo Messi in red-hot form, in a game where he needs no extra motivation, to be on the opposition? This is going to a crazy night for Madrid if they don't stop him, and props to them if they somehow do. But after those prematch comments from Reguilon and Vinicius about them not being scared of Leo, we don't know what to expect. One thing is for sure, neither their captain nor any of their senior members will say that. They have suffered enough.
